posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 01:05 PM
Larry Sabato, a top US Political Scientist and electoral analyst, is noted for being a numbers cruncher, and completely non-partisan. He is a
political scientist from the conservative University of Virginia poly-sci dept. and predicted the EXACT percentage (53%) of Popular vote in 2008 won
by Dem nominee Obama, and was only 1 vote off from the electoral college count in 2008's presidential election.
His long-awaited predicition this election cycle is that Obama will win with a narrow but solidified 2-3% popular vote win, and that the GOP will hold
the House with a number of seats in the 230's (217 needed to hold I believe) ; and that the dems will narrowly hold the Senate with a 50-50 tie and
Biden as a tiebreaker very possibly. He states that incumbent presidents win twice as much as non-incumbents, and that the economy, while not that
strong, is not enough for Obama to lose on its own. An outside incident or situation would have to occur that would somehow cause blame to come to
the president in order for romney to have a chance, and that is still very slim, because the bases of both have been so polarized (mainly by talk
radio and fox TV) .
My opinion on the matter:
I think he is right, but there is a caveat. By ostracizing the left, the very talk show hosts trying to boost the right (Limbaugh, Beck, Savage,
Hannity ) have put the left on the defensive to the point where they can not in good conscience cross over. If you constantly say that someone who
votes Dem is less than an American or as Hannity says ( only GOP are "Great Americans") you have made an enemy of 1/2 of the population. I vote on
Christian principles not on party, but the pure Hate that has been shown by the GOP'ers just on this site make it real hard to make the case for
Christ-like values on the right. I disagree with gay marriage and abortion, but I also disagree with the racist Voter ID laws (by the party of
Constitutional rights) , the disappearing of college loans for the poor, or cutting off food stamps that help farmers as much as they do poor people
because produce is the most bought item with food stamps... On the economy, I believe that the GOP is hurting because the Tax break for wealthier
Americans is UNFUNDED, so it can't be healthy to our economy, the increase in spending for the military is UNFUNDED, and the tax breaks for oik
companies is UNFUNDED. It looks like I will hold my nose and vote Dem on this one.. And believe me, I am a COMMITTED Christian. If I can see
this, anybody can. I think the Voter ID stuff though is the most transparent... Dirty playing if you ask me...
edit on 17-9-2012 by
sensible1 because: spl