Sabato - Top US Political Scientist Predicts Win for Obama, GOP in House (230 seats) and DEM hold in

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posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 01:05 PM
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Larry Sabato, a top US Political Scientist and electoral analyst, is noted for being a numbers cruncher, and completely non-partisan. He is a political scientist from the conservative University of Virginia poly-sci dept. and predicted the EXACT percentage (53%) of Popular vote in 2008 won by Dem nominee Obama, and was only 1 vote off from the electoral college count in 2008's presidential election.

His long-awaited predicition this election cycle is that Obama will win with a narrow but solidified 2-3% popular vote win, and that the GOP will hold the House with a number of seats in the 230's (217 needed to hold I believe) ; and that the dems will narrowly hold the Senate with a 50-50 tie and Biden as a tiebreaker very possibly. He states that incumbent presidents win twice as much as non-incumbents, and that the economy, while not that strong, is not enough for Obama to lose on its own. An outside incident or situation would have to occur that would somehow cause blame to come to the president in order for romney to have a chance, and that is still very slim, because the bases of both have been so polarized (mainly by talk radio and fox TV) .

My opinion on the matter:

I think he is right, but there is a caveat. By ostracizing the left, the very talk show hosts trying to boost the right (Limbaugh, Beck, Savage, Hannity ) have put the left on the defensive to the point where they can not in good conscience cross over. If you constantly say that someone who votes Dem is less than an American or as Hannity says ( only GOP are "Great Americans") you have made an enemy of 1/2 of the population. I vote on Christian principles not on party, but the pure Hate that has been shown by the GOP'ers just on this site make it real hard to make the case for Christ-like values on the right. I disagree with gay marriage and abortion, but I also disagree with the racist Voter ID laws (by the party of Constitutional rights) , the disappearing of college loans for the poor, or cutting off food stamps that help farmers as much as they do poor people because produce is the most bought item with food stamps... On the economy, I believe that the GOP is hurting because the Tax break for wealthier Americans is UNFUNDED, so it can't be healthy to our economy, the increase in spending for the military is UNFUNDED, and the tax breaks for oik companies is UNFUNDED. It looks like I will hold my nose and vote Dem on this one.. And believe me, I am a COMMITTED Christian. If I can see this, anybody can. I think the Voter ID stuff though is the most transparent... Dirty playing if you ask me...
edit on 17-9-2012 by sensible1 because: spl




posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 01:25 PM
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Uhmm.....
The govt.doesn't "FUND" tax breaks. It just gets to blow less on "Solyndra(s)"..


"we can't pay for a tax break!"


Well; you don't.


Abortion on demand? vote dem...

So CNN;MSNBC;;huff post; BILL MAHER;Joy Behar; et al are not "polarizing"?

just FOX and Rightwing talk radio??
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
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posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 01:43 PM
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"unfunded"

why is it, when the government 'doesn't" steal money from one group, democrats think that money must come from another group, or it's the end of the world.

and guess who makes the most money on a gallon of gasoline?

the GOVERNMENT



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 02:25 PM
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Originally posted by bjax9er
"unfunded"

why is it, when the government 'doesn't" steal money from one group, democrats think that money must come from another group, or it's the end of the world.

and guess who makes the most money on a gallon of gasoline?

the GOVERNMENT


You would defend the middle eastern sheik billionaires making our money and then using it to arm terrorists against us? The GOP left US not the other way around... This is pathetic!!!!!



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 04:53 PM
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Originally posted by sensible1

Originally posted by bjax9er
"unfunded"

why is it, when the government 'doesn't" steal money from one group, democrats think that money must come from another group, or it's the end of the world.

and guess who makes the most money on a gallon of gasoline?

the GOVERNMENT


You would defend the middle eastern sheik billionaires making our money and then using it to arm terrorists against us? The GOP left US not the other way around... This is pathetic!!!!!

This is pathetic!!!

&& Racist.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:22 PM
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Originally posted by 46ACE
Uhmm.....
The govt.doesn't "FUND" tax breaks. It just gets to blow less on "Solyndra(s)"..


"we can't pay for a tax break!"


Well; you don't.


Abortion on demand? vote dem...

So CNN;MSNBC;;huff post; BILL MAHER;Joy Behar; et al are not "polarizing"?

just FOX and Rightwing talk radio??
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)



I agree with you statement about " funding" a tax break.

I am no Republican but I have to tell you the way the Democrats twist and spin words like this cause me to never back them. It is tantamount to a lie and they do this en mass.. ad nauseum. This makes them VERY un worthy of my trust.



posted on Sep, 18 2012 @ 09:02 AM
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Originally posted by 11235813213455

Originally posted by 46ACE
Uhmm.....
The govt.doesn't "FUND" tax breaks. It just gets to blow less on "Solyndra(s)"..


"we can't pay for a tax break!"


Well; you don't.


Abortion on demand? vote dem...

So CNN;MSNBC;;huff post; BILL MAHER;Joy Behar; et al are not "polarizing"?

just FOX and Rightwing talk radio??
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)



I agree with you statement about " funding" a tax break.

I am no Republican but I have to tell you the way the Democrats twist and spin words like this cause me to never back them. It is tantamount to a lie and they do this en mass.. ad nauseum. This makes them VERY un worthy of my trust.


Elementary economics. If someone is paying $5 for something, and you say they only have to pay $3 now, that is a tax break... and spending....... The tax break is the the biggest spending bill on the horizon...



posted on Sep, 18 2012 @ 09:23 AM
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Originally posted by sensible1

Originally posted by 11235813213455

Originally posted by 46ACE
Uhmm.....
The govt.doesn't "FUND" tax breaks. It just gets to blow less on "Solyndra(s)"..


"we can't pay for a tax break!"



Well; you don't.


Abortion on demand? vote dem...

So CNN;MSNBC;;huff post; BILL MAHER;Joy Behar; et al are not "polarizing"?

just FOX and Rightwing talk radio??
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 17-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)



I agree with you statement about " funding" a tax break.

I am no Republican but I have to tell you the way the Democrats twist and spin words like this cause me to never back them. It is tantamount to a lie and they do this en mass.. ad nauseum. This makes them VERY un worthy of my trust.


Elementary economics. If someone is paying $5 for something, and you say they only have to pay $3 now, that is a tax break... and spending....... The tax break is the the biggest spending bill on the horizon...


"Elementary economics."


You are look at it "azz backwards"...
The government doesn't Pay me for creating my income tax payment. If I get to keep more of what I created. Its less they have to blow. not an unfunded obligation.

If I don't have $5000 for a new camera body; I don't spend it on the new body.
I don't scream "My new equipment is"unfunded""and take it from somebody else.I spend less; I'm not in the hole for $5,000.


What I want; what I can afford:and What I get..Are 3 completely different things. theGovt.could use a little more kitchen table economic sense.
edit on 18-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 18-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)
edit on 18-9-2012 by 46ACE because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 18 2012 @ 03:58 PM
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Originally posted by bjax9er

and guess who makes the most money on a gallon of gasoline?

the GOVERNMENT


Uhm, the vertically stacked corporations and the commodities brokers might take offense to that statement there as they're making record profits and getting loot back for the old gov't.

I mean the gov't only gets at most $0.25 a gallon, rounding UP for easy math. So if it is an articially generated amount of $4.25 a gallon (because that is the price the supplier of the demands that we provide), the gov't gets $0.25... the remaining $4 goes where? Exactly, the platinum tipped ivory back scratcher fund.

Derek





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