Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

Originally posted by RELDDIR
reply to post by thepresident

 

I don't understand your question sir.

It was a rhetorical question...

I am not sure how to translate if it is not obvious to you.

Polls do not decide who is president, but they can motivate or demotivate people to vote.
If Democrats think they are going to win (because of oversampled polls) they are more likely
to stay home, which gives the GOP and advantage.

Originally posted by RELDDIR
IMO, this race is dead even. Like I said twice before, it will be 269-269.

Less, Obama screwing up the debate, Iran bombing Israel or Obama coming on TV with
a Turban while burning the Holy Bible. I think Obama is in a position to win.

reply to post by thepresident


I was being sarcastic!

reply to post by thepresident


IMO (In My Opinion), I know polls very well. Most of these polls for 2012 is very flawed. They are as accurate as their least accurate factor, which is their sampling.

Originally posted by RELDDIR
IMO, this race is dead even. Like I said twice before, it will be 269-269.

Scenario Analysis

How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 6.7%
Obama wins popular vote 75.3%
Romney wins popular vote 24.7%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.9%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.4%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 6.5%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.5%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 1.4%
Map exactly the same as in 2004

Originally posted by RELDDIR

Everytime I post links, stats, facts and excerpts showing why your uncited claims are false ...you simply post that emoticon as an answer.

Have you ever considered making it your avatar? It seems fitting?

Remember that old saying that "Money talks & BS walks"?
Well the money says four more years, people putting up cold hard cash not partisan trash say Obama for the win.



www.intrade.com...

All these anti Obama threads started every damn day are starting to smell like weak desperation.
Why don't you start pro Rmoney threads instead touting all the wonderful policies he has, right you can't because his whole campaign thus far has been the usual empty sloganeering.

He would do to this country just what he did with all those companies he bankrupted, he & his buddies get richer while he sells you out to the highest bidder.
But go ahead vote the billionaires boy into power, because people like Rmoney, Adelson & the Koch bros care so much about people like you.

Let me guess...You put your money on the SCOTUS(Supreme Court of the United States) not passing the individual mandate of Obamacare. On that very morning before the SCOTUS decisions, intrade was 2 to 1 on the mandate not passing. It passed and a lot of idiots lost money.

The majority of Intrade are people outside the United States investing (gambling on Intrade). They purchase large amounts on both sides. And they leverage profit taking along the way. If you just pay $5 to comment there you wouldn't know it. BTW, a big chunk of Obama shares have just been sold.

Originally posted by aethertek
Remember that old saying that "Money talks & BS walks"?
Well the money says four more years, people putting up cold hard cash not partisan trash say Obama for the win.

www.intrade.com...

All these anti Obama threads started every damn day are starting to smell like weak desperation.
Why don't you start pro Rmoney threads instead touting all the wonderful policies he has, right you can't because his whole campaign thus far has been the usual empty sloganeering.

He would do to this country just what he did with all those companies he bankrupted, he & his buddies get richer while he sells you out to the highest bidder.
But go ahead vote the billionaires boy into power, because people like Rmoney, Adelson & the Koch bros care so much about people like you.

Wrong..so much for your guesses, now the SC decision surprised everyone, pundits, collective opinion & intrade.
The fact that Roberts of all people sided with the legislation came as an unexpected upset, so that in & of itself might be a bad example to discredit the current conventional wisdom.

Originally posted by aethertek
Wrong..so much for your guesses, now the SC decision surprised everyone, pundits, collective opinion & intrade.
The fact that Roberts of all people sided with the legislation came as an unexpected upset, so that in & of itself might be a bad example to discredit the current conventional wisdom.

What part are you confused by, the fact that you were wrong that I lost money on Intrade for the SC decision for healthcare or the fact that the highly conservative Justice Roberts upheld the decision came as a shock to many people.

www.google.com...

Originally posted by RELDDIR
Yes, I have a feeling this election is a lot closer than we all think. We might end up 269-269.
reply to post by TDawgRex

 

President Mitt Romney will win with 320 Electoral Votes.

Obama's record is a mess.

We deserve better than this.

reply to post by Eurisko2012


But Romney's record borders on criminal. Unethical at the very least.

He doesn't even really have a plan...for sure not an original plan.
Except for the 5 executive orders he's promising to write on 'Day One.'
He doesn't even seem to understand how Congress works...Paul Ryan at least understands how to prevent it from working.

Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

But Romney's record borders on criminal. Unethical at the very least.

He doesn't even really have a plan...for sure not an original plan.
Except for the 5 executive orders he's promising to write on 'Day One.'
He doesn't even seem to understand how Congress works...Paul Ryan at least understands how to prevent it from working.

President Mitt Romney will bring the $$$ trillion dollar deficits to an end.

Our AAA Credit Rating will return.

Chris Matthews is wondering what's Obama's plan is for a 2nd term.

Just asking: What percentage of those registered voters from the 2008 election were dead and had been dead for years?

How many of those dead people voted in the 2008 election? For that matter, how many cartoon characters voted in the 2008 election?

Why do democrates NOT want the voter registers purged of dead people and others who are legally ineligible to vote? Seems like these catagories of democrat registered voters skew the polling data as much as anything else.

Originally posted by 1PLA1
Just asking: What percentage of those registered voters from the 2008 election were dead and had been dead for years?

How many of those dead people voted in the 2008 election? For that matter, how many cartoon characters voted in the 2008 election?

Why do democrates NOT want the voter registers purged of dead people and others who are legally ineligible to vote? Seems like these catagories of democrat registered voters skew the polling data as much as anything else.

There is an organization looking in to that question.

They found a few dead people voting in South Carolina.

They are waiting for more results.

The closer it gets to election day the more reliable the polls will be. No polling organization wants to be far off from the end results.

Weird how they are oversampling Democrats because of 2008 results, but ignore the results of the 2010 elections.

Romney will surprise during the debates and Democrats are already downplaying the importance of the debates. That should tell you something.

Obama can only run from his record for so long before it bites him.

Originally posted by Carseller4
The closer it gets to election day the more reliable the polls will be. No polling organization wants to be far off from the end results.

Weird how they are oversampling Democrats because of 2008 results, but ignore the results of the 2010 elections.

Romney will surprise during the debates and Democrats are already downplaying the importance of the debates. That should tell you something.

Obama can only run from his record for so long before it bites him.

Bingo!

The democrats were thrown out of office in November 2010.

Hello Speaker John Boehner! We have a larger office for you.

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Originally posted by Carseller4
The closer it gets to election day the more reliable the polls will be. No polling organization wants to be far off from the end results.

Weird how they are oversampling Democrats because of 2008 results, but ignore the results of the 2010 elections.

Romney will surprise during the debates and Democrats are already downplaying the importance of the debates. That should tell you something.

Obama can only run from his record for so long before it bites him.

Bingo!

The democrats were thrown out of office in November 2010.

Hello Speaker John Boehner! We have a larger office for you.

I am gonna enjoy sending you a U2U on Nov 7th congratulation Barack Obama

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

President Mitt Romney will bring the $$$ trillion dollar deficits to an end.

How, exactly?

It is time to let loose with some specifics. Anyone can make a claim to be elected...heck, it happens every 4 years here in the US.

But even the outright insincere ones at least give up some details.
I don't think Romney insincere, actually...I have to give him that. But I want to know HOW he is going to do something that he claims Obama didn't do, in the same amount of time.

Running successfully against an incumbent, any incumbent, means that the candidate must not only be seen as a good choice but have BETTER plans than the incumbent. This requires defining one's self, as well as defining the incumbent.

Source

Romney's got one half of the job done...he has defined Obama to the point of monotony. But he has not defined himself except in vague terms.