We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say

In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest.

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This clearly seems to show that when the food price index rises above a certain threshold, the result is trouble around the world....but what's interesting about this analysis is that Lagi and co say that high food prices don't necessarily trigger riots themselves, they simply create the conditions in which social unrest can flourish. "These observations are consistent with a hypothesis that high global food prices are a precipitating condition for social unrest," say Lagi and co. In other words, high food prices lead to a kind of tipping point when almost anything can trigger a riot, like a lighted match in a dry forest.

Civil unrest is coming, something most of us know, and it will be likely to manifest first and most conspicuously in the poorer countries as a result of food prices and the prices of other basic necessities. We've seen this before, as the chart above shows. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see similar unrest this time in some of the richer countries as well. Things are worse than the official statistics acknoweldge out there. By blinding itself to the true nature of the situation by a reliance on massaged statistics, the bad news might blindside some of the richer nations as well as the so-called developing world.

Its interesting to me that these complexity theorists posit that food prices aren't the direct linear "cause" of civil unrest but rather create the conditions that allow people to riot over other things. Its a slim distinction but one that seems plausible.

Batten down the hatches...

Civil unrest is coming, something most of us know, and it will be likely to manifest first and most conspicuously in the poorer countries as a result of food prices and the prices of other basic necessities.

Happening in Spain right now isn't it? There have been several threads on ATS lately about various government agencies getting bullets, I don't think they are getting ready for a new way to celebrate July 4th. I agree food shortages and prices could be the tipping point, and the writing is on the wall. The timing sounds about right too.

add in a drought driven food shortage, some high level govt. corruption, a govt that's not doing what the people want, no jobs, devaluing currency, unsustainable debt and we have the perfect storm brewing.

Food is surely rising, with the drought and rising fuel costs it's getting crazy. Now add in a Strait of Hormuz closer and another year of the drought I could see it happening in the good ol USA. What people or should I say sheeple don't realize is that when the ranchers have to sell cattle and the hog producer has to sell their hogs the prices will go down in the short term. Just look out 6 months when the herds are culled and a real shortage of meat along with fruit, vegetables, and wheat hit the store. Then add in 5-6 dollar fuel for the trucks to get what little is out there to market.

I didn't read the actual paper, and I'm sure they did a proper statistical analysis, but are they basing their finding on 2 hits in an 8 year window? Seems like a small sample size and a pretty loose correlation.

Since I started shopping at my local supermarket, I have kept all the till receipts, my food bill at that place has gone up 100% in 5 years, I now make a point of looking for the 2 for 1 deals, never used to.

reply to post by Iamschist


The situation in Spain is really grim, from what I hear. Its hard for me to understand how the society can hold together with such huge unemployment numbers... Definitely a place to keep a close eye on.

reply to post by silent thunder


You know I have been thinking about this more, and what I often forget is how incredibly adaptable we are. We have faced hardship and sacrifice before in modern times and we hunkered down, adjusted and life went on. It is easy to focus on the nightmare of the sudden shock and anarchy, but suppose that does not happen? I have been told by relatives of the great depression and the sacrifices made during WWII, people even got to where they joked about it. No hard time will last forever and people will still need to mind the kids, fall in love, clean the toilet, live life. We cannot foresee the good that might be a part of this, but that does not mean it isn't there.

I think you are right, within a year a lot could happen. After the Solar max the tension should go down but the built up chaos may continue for a few years.

To be honest I thought the Arabian spring would come over to Europe & the USA this year starting with occupy and all...next year sounds good though!!

Here in Iceland we're having protests tomorrow night since the parliament is coming back to work after a summer vacation, I doubt there'll be any heat this time since we're having elections in 6 months and asking for a new government right now would be pretty useless since we'd either get the guys in charge now back or the guys who ruined our country lol The government that's in control now though just isn't doing enough for the people and putting taxes on EVERYTHING (but then again they were left with ruins and had nothing to work with but still...everything is twice as expensive as it was before while the wages remain the same ) I want neither in control next time so if there isn't a new party that magically shows up and looks promising in the next 6 months I, myself probably wont even vote. (or well, I will show up and voice my opinion by leaving a blank vote)

It's crazy though. I mean we already did the whole overthrow our government and install a new one and it got us nowhere..well here's to hoping for a better day for the people and better governments, cheers ATS!!

Originally posted by Verse

It's crazy though. I mean we already did the whole overthrow our government and install a new one and it got us nowhere..well here's to hoping for a better day for the people and better governments, cheers ATS!!

edit on 11-9-2012 by Verse because: (no reason given)

i think you guys are doing well for what you have been through. problem is that you got rid of the old boss and replaced them with the new boss without changing the system, so as to not let it happen again.