posted on Sep, 12 2012 @ 11:18 PM
Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by OccamsRazor04
You've lost all credibility with me. At least in this thread, and probably beyond. That is one of the most blatant examples of the misrepresentation
of data I've seen.
Now normally, this isn't a reason to really care, but BUNK information on this topic can lead people who don't do their own research to get the
wrong impression of TRUE RISK. That can get people KILLED.
I stated actual Statistics and linked to studies that back me up. I see you saying I am wrong, and then offer nothing that contradicts me, in fact,
you say I am wrong and then you prove me right as I will show.
Now, I may just be a simple guy from Missouri these days, but that sounds exceptionally dangerous and described in biological detail precisely
HOW and WHY it's exceptionally dangerous for male AND female. Not alike....it's clear females are more likely to contract by sheer physiology.
But..only by a bit.
So give me the odds of Female to Male and Male to Female transmission. I see you making claims, but I see no statistics backing your claims up.
"If you don't have an open wound...it has no way in" some may say (and.ahem..HAVE). Well, I'm not sure what gender someone is who is saying
that, as we all generally know the basic biology of the other sex, let alone our own..and to keep this whole thing as G rated in a touchy subject as
possible, there is a BIG GAPING INFECTION PATH at the end of the male genetalia. As this rather clear report...from your source....so graphically
describes in detail.
Did I say that? No. So why are you trying to debunk what I said with statements made by someone else?
but then, there is your study...which is on the next page in sequence to the one I took those quotes from. With a couple further minutes
looking. I found an abstract directly out of the study some are trying to quote here with very badly misplaced context. Dangerously so.
We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies of the risk of HIV-1 transmission per heterosexual contact. 43 publications
comprising 25 different study populations were identified. Pooled female-to-male (0.04% per act [95% CI 0.01-0.14]) and male-to-female (0.08% per act
[95% CI 0.06-0.11]) transmission estimates in high-income countries indicated a low risk of infection in the absence of antiretrovirals. Low-income
country female-to-male (0.38% per act [95% CI 0.13-1.10]) and male-to-female (0.30% per act [95% CI 0.14-0.63]) estimates in the absence of commercial
sex exposure (CSE) were higher. In meta-regression analysis, the infectivity across estimates in the absence of CSE was significantly associated with
sex, setting, the interaction between setting and sex, and antenatal HIV prevalence.
The odds you just cited are .04%, or 1:2500 per episode of sex. My original quote was 1:2000, which means I took the road to overestimate the risk.
The odds for a woman are TWICE as likely, .08% or 1:1250, which is exactly what I stated.
Now that is the first part of the abstract. There is another half to it and I'd suggest everyone check that out. It's real clear they are
using sampling methods to generate the statistics for per incident exposure numbers across society as a whole as looked at by sub group. That is a
WORLD APART from say this specific individual man has less than 1% chance of infection by having sex with a female infected and carrying a viral load.
Bad information in this area CAN get people KILLED. I'd hope everyone check themselves if any questions exist as to what is dangerous for the spread
No, it's not. You obviously have no idea how statistics work, that is exactly what it means.
Now then, please show me exactly what I said that was wrong and give me actual numbers that prove I am wrong. All you have done is said I am wrong and
then you quote figures that prove I am right. If you can't prove my earlier statement of 1:2000 odds to get HIV from a woman per sexual encounter
false with actual numbers do not bother answering, we will all assume you are too embarassed to post and apologize to me.