A list from defense analyst on bombing Iran

Here is a nice pdf detailing ways to get Iran. In one part they say Israel might even use nuclear weapons as a first strike.

csis.org...

That sounds interesting....but what target? Fordo? Nothing we have can escort all the way in and back out. Bushehr? Heck, Naval bombardment could get that...but the counter attack would leave us recovering some ships from the bottom of the Gulf.

I did a thread quite some time ago that looked at aircraft, ranges and the geography involved here...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I wonder how they've solved those issues? IF the B-2 can get in and back out without being seen at all, they won't need escorts of course, but our Stealth Technology isn't bullet proof as Serbia and the little B-2 like drone showed. Err... If they do this, I hope no one in Washington is thinking Half Way or quick win. We're going to lose World War III if we go into this thinking it's a quick ass kicking and home for the election.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000
All hail Wrabbit for actual tactical and strategic analysis of the situation and shutting down propaganda!

Then again, I also always find it ridiculous for anyone to act like action is necessary to prevent Iran from striking in the first place, as well. Hell, even according to Israel's intelligence experts, they're not insane enough to do so...so we would be striking, in idiocy, against a non-existent threat for all realistic intents and purposes.

Sure, they'll bluff and bluster - but who doesn't want to save face? They're essentially operating in a purely defensive and preventative capacity as far as I can tell.

Daisy cutters (MoaB) will be used in carving out Irans labs. I highly doubt nukes will be used outright, no one wants to raise the acceptable threshold for usage.

Well, actually that's not true, but thats a matter for another thread.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
That sounds interesting....but what target? Fordo? Nothing we have can escort all the way in and back out. Bushehr? Heck, Naval bombardment could get that...but the counter attack would leave us recovering some ships from the bottom of the Gulf.

I did a thread quite some time ago that looked at aircraft, ranges and the geography involved here...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I wonder how they've solved those issues? IF the B-2 can get in and back out without being seen at all, they won't need escorts of course, but our Stealth Technology isn't bullet proof as Serbia and the little B-2 like drone showed. Err... If they do this, I hope no one in Washington is thinking Half Way or quick win. We're going to lose World War III if we go into this thinking it's a quick ass kicking and home for the election.

edit on 7-9-2012 by Wrabbit2000 because: minor correction. ...sorry ..tired

The pdf is very detailed and long so I just skimmed through it for now,but here are the targets.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


And what a damn good thread that was, just S & F it.

I wonder what exactly is going to happen with Israel chomping at the bit and the US saying please don't drag us into another war if Israel attacks Iran, and N. Korea being buddy buddy with Iran....it sure is an interesting/scary time! Reminds me of the Red Scare that my father lived through...he used to have nightmares of the Russians breaking down his door and coming to get him and his family.

Edit: In my opinion, they will not go through Saudi Arabia or Syria, I believe they will go through Turkey. If I was Iran, that is where I would set up my anti-aircraft defenses.

Thereis NO way in Hell that the Iranian nuclear sites can be shut down for certain without BOOTs
on the ground.....and grunts dying to do the job.....
The bloody airfarce is not the end all and be all of warfare, and strategic air power is NOT the end of the world for Iran.....
Just striking Natanz and bushesher sic would leave the radiation streaming over a wide area of the middle east....
Bushesher is CLOSER to SIX arab capital cities than it is to teheran......think about that!

Also, I see that Saudi Arabia is heavily relied on for Airforce Tactical Fighter Capabilities. That might sound good, but, I don't know if Saudi Arabia will lead an attack on Iran. Link. I realize they don't like Iran as much as Israel, and they could just be threatening this to stop a war from being fought in their country, but, this is just guesswork.

reply to post by nightbringr




Can this get through Iran's UHPC? The article states that it is 150 newton/millimeter². I don't know if I'm doing it right or not, but that would equal 21755 psi. Which would cut in half the penetration depth of 25 ft that the GBU-57A/B is claimed to get to. Please correct me if I am wrong with the math.

That is an intense read... they really get int othe nuts and bolts of ever aspect of a strike.. what think tank was paid to do that and how did it leak?
the US is sloppy with intel and statements at the moment.. seems deliberate.

reply to post by Agit8dChop

The institution was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for the United States to survive as a nation and prosper as a people.

From link.

It seems they are a think tank and this report seems to have almost everything in there. It was very interesting anyways.

reply to post by superman2012
We agree on a lot!

That stat sheet on the MOP is what concerns me. I finally did find a graphic on Fordow and a cut-away of what the faciity might look like. The Depths...are the problem here. Remember, this graphic is supposed to make the MOP look good.

MOP Specs vs. known data on Fordow Nuclear Facility

Now, if we assume for a moment that the Iranians are downright simple minded and just built straight down like any American tactical model would just love to see be the case, this is like destroying the Death Star in Star Wars, right? Down the chute and...... Okay, yeah, movies are neat...because they show what can never ever happen in real life....so what can the leadership be thinking?

Their own models show the Fordow base starting somewhere at 80 Meters under a Mountain. A rock mountain. That's 40 meters beyond the best estimate. Gosh.. I hope Iran didn't think of that and build sideways to make the area most likely to take direct hits an obsolete and or redundant part of a larger and deeper facility. It's not like it's so simple a thought a guy on ATS could come up with it or anything.

....and if the U.S. does this and gets just ONE THING wrong? ONE major target gets missed? Yeah.. I know I trust the CIA's prowess and technical ability with the lives of millions of people. It's not like they've ever been breathtakingly wrong on war related intelligence before or anything.

Scary, isn't it? This whole thing... Like a nightmare sometimes... No one learned a thing in the last half dozen "conflicts". Not one thing.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Yes, this thread and yours showed me things I never saw/thought of before. If anything, I believe that Israel will fly through Turkey to get to Iran and drag the US into a war (which might be a nuclear one, if Israel doesn't knock out all targets 1st try), which I believe will kickstart WW3.

Iran's allies either perceived or acknowledged:

Lebenon
Syria
China
Russia
India
Pakistan
Iraq
Afghanistan
Venezuela
North Korea

Enemies:

Israel
Saudi Arabia (although I don't believe the will initiate)
US
UK
Canada (?)

Strong on both sides. If China and Russia join in, well, I sure as hell hope nothing ever happens!

Okay so a little something ya'll may not know. And I don't know if I'm really supposed to say or not, but it shouldn't be a secret if you read "Jane's". But MOPs, BLUs, GBUs are frequently followed up with another bomb or missile like an ATacM or some other sort of standard ordinance.

It's nicknamed a "Bust & Blast."

It's done to clean up anyone that escapes the bust and to be sure to "cake" the surface.

Another piece of the puzzle ya'll are forgetting is that we still have forces in Iraq. I know for a fact that we still have arty boys in Iraq with some big guns and missiles. We talk on the regular.

Their "shoot, move and communicate" capabilities range about 100 to 200 miles of firing distance, 200 to 300 mile moving distance.

Do that math. 300 to 500 strike range from the ground, using MLRS. So if they fueled at the border and ran in to shoot then ran back...

Bombs are safer, but hit & run arty is always an option.

ETA: And that's just the munitions that we can talk about.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


the b-2 may have the radar signature of a bird but how many birds do you know that can travel at 620/mph and at an altitude of 50,000 ft.

stealth is only good against enemies that don't have the capability to shoot it down or the air defence and radar stations have already been taken out.

reply to post by randomname


Hence an arty border strike or navy bombardment to clear the way. Forward troops, like SF to paint also.

Besides SRE would only blip a b-2 maybe twice before it's out of range.

ETA: Besides mountains can cripple radar and Iran has A LOT of mountains.

excellent link op star and flag!

this has to be the most in depth look at the issue that ive seen on Ats in a long time,they even seem to answer most of the questions that i have seen posed on Ats over the past few months if you stay with it and read all the pages of the pdf it will defiantly help paint a clearer picture of what it would take to pull off such a strike and the potential consequences of such a strike.i highly reccomend reading the entire thing

Originally posted by thesungod
Okay so a little something ya'll may not know. And I don't know if I'm really supposed to say or not, but it shouldn't be a secret if you read "Jane's". But MOPs, BLUs, GBUs are frequently followed up with another bomb or missile like an ATacM or some other sort of standard ordinance.

It's nicknamed a "Bust & Blast."

It's done to clean up anyone that escapes the bust and to be sure to "cake" the surface.

edit on 8-9-2012 by thesungod because: Put GBU in the wrong place

Yes, but what if the MOPs don't bust? Then you have an explosion, followed by another one that didn't/couldn't do as intended and a still functioning "nuclear site". Talk about giving warning...plus, they don't even know where under the mountain the site is.
When you want to destroy an ants nest, do you randomly throw rocks at the ground? That's why I believe Israel will use the nuke option if they don't get the site the first time.

reply to post by superman2012


Hence the whole "cake" part, meaning sealing the surface with heat, or baking a cake.