Who is really winning the Election?

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posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 01:41 AM
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American's know that the President of our country is elected not by popular vote, but by the electoral college. Since 2004, Andrew S. Tanenbaum Ph.D., the author of the MINIX programming language and 21 computer programming books and University Professor has operated (for many years in secret) the website electoral-vote.com.

Using his advanced knowledge of computer programming algorithms, and insider polling data, he creates a "if the vote happened today" style of Electoral Map for his website. He uses information from many different polling places and averages them together in a simple explanation of his algorithm. This data is updated daily for both the Presidential race and the Senate.

He acknowledges on his own websites FAQ, that polling data can be flawed based on the methods used to conduct the poll, as well as political bias of some pollsters. However I can say from my personal experience following this website since it was created in 2004 that it is the most correct representation of the daily state of politics that can be had in regards to national elections.

I wanted to bring this to the attention of the political folks here at ATS in case this website has not made it on your radar. And in regards to the title of my post, Who is really winning the election?, Obama is smashing Mitt Romney. The senate is in a close heat for the majority. But as always in politics, tomorrow is another day!





posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 01:57 AM
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im not a voter for anyone, but i guess i have to support mitt on this one:/



posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 01:58 AM
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reply to post by spleenika
 


Very neat. I'll have to poke around a bit more on the site, but still very cool.

S&F for you.



posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 02:01 AM
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE MODEL PREDICTS ROMNEY WILL WIN BIG IN 2012 (AND IT’S BEEN RIGHT SINCE 1980)

You can find references for whatever viewpoint you want to sell as the "truth". Frankly, I like my link better. I think it's more true than yours.

Cheers.


edit on 7-9-2012 by AwakeinNM because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 04:17 AM
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reply to post by AwakeinNM
 


Great link and I'm glad you included it in the thread.

I have seen that electoral college map, and I find the flaw with it is in the prediction model. It uses the assumption from historical evidence that if the economy is bad, a sitting president will take a popularity/voter hit. And I think that is a true and valid assumption. However, I believe that the people remember very well who created the mess we are in. Though those who oppose the incumbent seem to have a less precise memory oddly enough.

I believe that the electoral map you have linked is in fact an improperly considered model given that circumstances are a bit different given the historical magnitude of the economic failure, not so many people are going to blame the incumbent due to forgetfulness whether it is convenient memory loss or not.

Also, that map is not a poll of voters but simply based on economic indicators. It is in complete opposition to a large sample of actual voter opinion polls that have been averaged together. My linked map asks voters, the other map asks history. History doesn't vote, and I believe the map I have linked to be "more true then yours".

Edit: Also the map I have linked was created by someone who was a member of the Reagan campaign for Governor. Not a politically inept computer nerd, but a politically informed computer nerd.
edit on 9/7/2012 by spleenika because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 09:34 AM
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These are fun to look at and play with. But we won't know who wins the election until that evening. Unless something happens that puts one candidate FAR above the other in the polls (which is still a possibility), we'll just have to wait and see.


My dog wants me to vote for Obama, so I guess I will.



posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 03:46 PM
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Right now, TPTB are winning pretty good. At least it looks that way.

We'll see what happens as it happens though.



posted on Sep, 29 2012 @ 12:58 AM
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Quick update for 9-28-12.

The polling numbers have been amazingly undisturbed since my first post 4 weeks ago. Today it shows Romney and the GOP Senate candidates just a little more behind then they were a month ago.

Side note: Romney has not ever had over 206 EV's (electoral votes).

The Obama vs: McCain campaign of 2008 was completely volatile with either candidate jumping ahead or falling behind almost daily. It was pretty exciting to watch. This time though, it is very interesting to see such a consistent public opinion. Almost as if opinions had been set before the campaigns even began.

It makes me wonder how much the debates may influence these so far consistent levels.



posted on Nov, 6 2012 @ 11:28 PM
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Sadly this thread did not have much popularity. But I just wanted people to remember this source 4 years from now, they were proven accurate for the reasons I discussed earlier in the thread.





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