posted on Sep, 7 2012 @ 04:17 AM
reply to post by AwakeinNM
Great link and I'm glad you included it in the thread.
I have seen that electoral college map, and I find the flaw with it is in the prediction model. It uses the assumption from historical evidence that
if the economy is bad, a sitting president will take a popularity/voter hit. And I think that is a true and valid assumption. However, I believe that
the people remember very well who created the mess we are in. Though those who oppose the incumbent seem to have a less precise memory oddly
I believe that the electoral map you have linked is in fact an improperly considered model given that circumstances are a bit different given the
historical magnitude of the economic failure, not so many people are going to blame the incumbent due to forgetfulness whether it is convenient memory
loss or not.
Also, that map is not a poll of voters but simply based on economic indicators. It is in complete opposition to a large sample of actual voter opinion
polls that have been averaged together. My linked map asks voters, the other map asks history. History doesn't vote, and I believe the map I have
linked to be "more true then yours".
Edit: Also the map I have linked was created by someone who was a member of the Reagan campaign for Governor. Not a politically inept computer nerd,
but a politically informed computer nerd.
edit on 9/7/2012 by spleenika because: (no reason given)