Who is really winning the Election? , page 1

Who is really winning the Election? , page

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Topic started on 7-9-2012 @ 01:41 AM by spleenika

American's know that the President of our country is elected not by popular vote, but by the electoral college. Since 2004, Andrew S. Tanenbaum Ph.D., the author of the MINIX programming language and 21 computer programming books and University Professor has operated (for many years in secret) the website electoral-vote.com.

Using his advanced knowledge of computer programming algorithms, and insider polling data, he creates a "if the vote happened today" style of Electoral Map for his website. He uses information from many different polling places and averages them together in a simple explanation of his algorithm. This data is updated daily for both the Presidential race and the Senate.

He acknowledges on his own websites FAQ, that polling data can be flawed based on the methods used to conduct the poll, as well as political bias of some pollsters. However I can say from my personal experience following this website since it was created in 2004 that it is the most correct representation of the daily state of politics that can be had in regards to national elections.

I wanted to bring this to the attention of the political folks here at ATS in case this website has not made it on your radar. And in regards to the title of my post, Who is really winning the election?, Obama is smashing Mitt Romney. The senate is in a close heat for the majority. But as always in politics, tomorrow is another day!

reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 01:57 AM by shadowreborn89

im not a voter for anyone, but i guess i have to support mitt on this one:/

reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 01:58 AM by thesungod

reply to post by spleenika

Very neat. I'll have to poke around a bit more on the site, but still very cool.

S&F for you.

reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 02:01 AM by AwakeinNM

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MODEL PREDICTS ROMNEY WILL WIN BIG IN 2012 (AND IT’S BEEN RIGHT SINCE 1980)

You can find references for whatever viewpoint you want to sell as the "truth". Frankly, I like my link better. I think it's more true than yours.

Cheers.

edit on 7-9-2012 by AwakeinNM because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 04:17 AM by spleenika

reply to post by AwakeinNM

Great link and I'm glad you included it in the thread.

I have seen that electoral college map, and I find the flaw with it is in the prediction model. It uses the assumption from historical evidence that if the economy is bad, a sitting president will take a popularity/voter hit. And I think that is a true and valid assumption. However, I believe that the people remember very well who created the mess we are in. Though those who oppose the incumbent seem to have a less precise memory oddly enough.

I believe that the electoral map you have linked is in fact an improperly considered model given that circumstances are a bit different given the historical magnitude of the economic failure, not so many people are going to blame the incumbent due to forgetfulness whether it is convenient memory loss or not.

Also, that map is not a poll of voters but simply based on economic indicators. It is in complete opposition to a large sample of actual voter opinion polls that have been averaged together. My linked map asks voters, the other map asks history. History doesn't vote, and I believe the map I have linked to be "more true then yours".

Edit: Also the map I have linked was created by someone who was a member of the Reagan campaign for Governor. Not a politically inept computer nerd, but a politically informed computer nerd.

edit on 9/7/2012 by spleenika because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 09:34 AM by Benevolent Heretic

These are fun to look at and play with. But we won't know who wins the election until that evening. Unless something happens that puts one candidate FAR above the other in the polls (which is still a possibility), we'll just have to wait and see.