Coming Race War, From a Political Consultant

"We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

So says Sen. Lindsay Graham (R) to the Washington Post

And I don't disagree with him.

I have remained relatively quiet (for me) on ATS when it comes to politics. This isn't because I am disinterested, in fact, it is quite the opposite. As I have eluded to before, I have made a not insignificant portion of my income from being a political consultant. I also enjoy the "bread and butter" or "panem and circenses" of conspiracy theories and think there is truth being told here that isn't being told in the "real world". However, I also would like to be employed by future campaigns, hence why the avatar that I have adopted on ATS is different than any that I have used elsewhere on the 'Net.

I am quickly approaching the TL;DR point in an ATS post, so what exactly do I want to say tonight?

I am afraid that a race war might break out in late 2012, but more likely, early 2013. And I say that as a white, gun owning, red state living American that voted for Obama and will vote for him again.

What evidence do I bring to the table? Unfortunately nothing more than circumstantial, a reading of the tea leaves and a gut reaction from a guy that has been around the block a few times. I will present some of those tea leaves so that you can make your own prognostication.

First and foremost, is the most recent (as in 2 hours ago) post by Nate Silver for FiveThirtyEight at the New York Times. Many people will discount what the man has to say because he writes for the Grey Lady, but I have been following the man since 2008 and will vouch for his statistical bona fides. In fact, in the last presidential election, I made several hundred dollars on the exact electoral college count based upon his predictions.

What does the esteemed Mr. Silver say tonight?

Turning out your base may not be a sufficient strategy if your base has become too narrow. In 2004, Mr. Bush had an excellent base turnout — but he also captured about 40 percent or 45 percent of the Hispanic vote, a share that Mr. Romney is unlikely to reach. Without that relatively strong performance among Hispanics, the election would have been a tossup.

You should read the article, but he also presents the following data.



and



What does this information tell us?

1) That it is becoming very problematic for a candidate to receive 270 electoral votes by appealing primarily to "angry white guys".

and

2) That this election is going to be close in the popular vote, but not very close in the electoral vote.

If you read ATS, you would have to be living under a rock to fail to see that there is a strong belief that the current system is broken. The numerous threads on how Rep. Paul was robbed at the convention, beliefs that candidate X is the anti-christ, Zimmerman was framed, they are coming for our guns, etc. Oh, and did I add, most of those "angry white guys" are armed to the teeth..

The question I ask tonight (and I will freely admit that I am couple of bourbons in) is what happens when a percentage (granted small, but not insignificant) part of the population feels that the election was stolen from them, for nefarious purposes and that they gave their last chance for the system "to work"? The story line in MSM will be the overwhelming victory by Pres. Obama based upon his large (I am guessing 300+) win in the electoral college but there will be those looking at how close the popular vote will be and think it was stolen, since he only would have had to shift it by less than 2 percentage points.

As we have seen in Aurora, Ft. Hood, Oklahoma City and yes, on September 11, what only a handful of fervent individuals can do. Yes, they will be in the minority, but I am afraid that it will more than just a handful.

I hope I am wrong.

reply to post by LordOfArcadia

Maybe you should have a few more bourbons.

That was pretty messed up what that guy, David said. Even if that was a joke, that was pretty twisted.

As far as a race war.... I feel that we have always been in a race war. Our nation is plagued by it.

I don't see an all-out nationwide violent brawl erupting. I think this is as worse as it will get. I come from a diverse California population. Almost everybody gets along.

reply to post by LordOfArcadia


I believe the liberal democrats want a race war, they are race-baiting constantly.

It won't be the "armed to the teeth" responsible gun owners that start a "war".

Originally posted by Happy1
reply to post by LordOfArcadia

 

It won't be ... responsible gun owners that start a "war".

I can agree in principal with the above statement. But looking at the demographic data, it only takes a very small percentage to escalate.

I know I did a poor job of summarizing, but look at the data. It is kind of like the Fermi Paradox. That data is just on my side.

Which race are we talking here? From my viewpoint it will be human vs. human again. So sad that we don't learn.

First off- let me say that i think racism is stupid. Intelligent people know that most people have potential, regardless of race. the problem as i see it, as a person who has observed racial debates over the years, is that it is impossible to have an honest debate about race...i'm from a small town in Indiana and i had never heard a racial slur till i moved to south Carolina...there were Hispanics and black people in our town, but as far as i saw, everyone pretty much got along, at least as far as race is concerned...but when i moved to SC i saw racism first hand. quickly. and the first experience i had with it was black on white racism...i quickly came to realize that there is alot of racism in the black community, but i also saw firsthand white on black racism. i was and still am appalled by it. but, and i say this from personal witness in life and from participating in and observing debate, black people are given a pass on racism and as a result use it as a tool and a crutch. white people are not, and as a result i believe that racism is far less prevalent in that community... until we can have honest conversations about racism, the powder-keg will continue to grow...i could care less what color a person is. if i get respect i give it, if i give respect i expect it in return. i would not participate in such a war except to defend my people and property....

reply to post by LordOfArcadia


I think that this is a possibility but I do believe there is preventative measures for this. I think that if people would start to wake up and see that racism is only a tool used and employed to cover up classism then we might stand a chance. If more people can't see this can only see more seperation in the future and this seperation is what will lead to an inevetable race war... I cant help but feel that obama is partially responsible this. His rallying of people to be empowered by there race is purely racism itself and will certianly help to force a wedge in there... especially if he doesnt win the comming election..

reply to post by LordOfArcadia



I don't find the scenario you lay out to be implausible at all. In fact I would bet on it happening one day too. There seems to be a real campaign by the media especially to make black folks feel wronged for being so "oppressed", and to make white folks feel ashamed for their ancestors having slaves. I notice it especially in the young black males and females that live around here. Just their demeanor and the way they carry themselves and the fact that they are generally more racist than any of the white people I know. You have the media and movies like The Help that throw off a "bad whitey" vibe. And I think it will only get worse and people are gonna get more and more fed up and angry with life in general and then one day its all going to come to a head.

Originally posted by openeyeswideshut
reply to post by LordOfArcadia

 

I think that this is a possibility but I do believe there is preventative measures for this. I think that if people would start to wake up and see that racism is only a tool used and employed to cover up classism then we might stand a chance. If more people can't see this can only see more seperation in the future and this seperation is what will lead to an inevetable race war... I cant help but feel that obama is partially responsible this. His rallying of people to be empowered by there race is purely racism itself and will certianly help to force a wedge in there... especially if he doesnt win the comming election..

agree 100%....

reply to post by LordOfArcadia


I don't see a race war either.

At the moment though I do see riots if Romney wins by a slim margin.

And once again it will be poverty stricken people destroying their own neighborhoods.

That has always baffled me. How does that make things any better?

Originally posted by Cancerwarrior
reply to post by LordOfArcadia

 

I don't find the scenario you lay out to be implausible at all. In fact I would bet on it happening one day too. There seems to be a real campaign by the media especially to make black folks feel wronged for being so "oppressed", and to make white folks feel ashamed for their ancestors having slaves. I notice it especially in the young black males and females that live around here. Just their demeanor and the way they carry themselves and the fact that they are generally more racist than any of the white people I know. You have the media and movies like The Help that throw off a "bad whitey" vibe. And I think it will only get worse and people are gonna get more and more fed up and angry with life in general and then one day its all going to come to a head.

I hope you're wrong, but i fear that it is possible if we cant have an honest national debate about race...people aren't interested in that though, they only use the topic to further their own agendas...

i'm curious about your username--i'm a part of coloncancersolutions, a group that combats the disease and promotes awareness. i lost my little brother to it in 08....(he was 27)if you're a survivor you're in my prayers...thats the kind of thing we should be worried about, not something as petty as skin color or the like....

reply to post by TDawgRex


I agree with you, I don't see a "race" war, but riots.

I would like to add that I'm caucasian, and I'm very afraid of white supremacist - Aryian nation, Neo-nazi groups -
I completely abhor their dogmas, but they are very well organized and supplied. And they can aim.

First, you are spot on about Nate Silver. You could also have shared that he accurately called ALL 35 senate races in 2008. The man cut his teeth developing a genius algorithm that predicted the career performance of baseball players. He sold that for big bucks and continued to run the program for the company that bought it. He took his statistical analysis and math genius to politics first anonymously on the Kos site. But he proved so good that he outed himself and launched 538.com, subsequently sold for more big bucks. The guy is the BENCHMARK for his art.

On the subject of angry white men, I think one of the problems is with psychically tortured vets, horrendously burdened by more combat tours than any other generation of Americans. It creates a new and much more dangerous potential than your stereotypical out of shape, more bark than bite (and certainly not professionally trained) mouthy redneck.

I'm a vet, so I don't say this lightly or with any disparagement towards these men -- America created them -- but these are men inured to violence. They've sadly seen more human-on-human brutality than perhaps any other group save for the most violent inner city gangs, and like them, they are unafraid and far too idle in an economy that is having difficulty finding work for them, even when they are stable enough to handle the civilian transition.

I do fear this dynamic makes things far more explosive potentially. We are already seeing signs of it and we will see more. Even with Obama adding funds to vet care (in spite of Republican unified resistance), too many are left untreated and only those seeking treatment have a prayer of support. These men are also not understood by the people who allowed them to be sent to kill and live with death daily -- our citizenry never felt this war. These men and the rest of America have lived in alternate universes for ten years now. Lack of being understood leads to isolation, disaffection and frustration. And these resentments pile up until the pressure cannot be contained. Of course, these are also men trained in the art of war, so a pressure blow with them is far more dangerous than your typical jingoistic, beer swilling redneck.

Further, in their abandonment by society, we should expect them to find comfort in the company of those like them, their fellows in arms. I remember the deep loss of camaraderie I felt when I left the service and I only served in a time of peace. It will be natural for these men to seek out each other, form alliances and alliances always have perceived enemies.

When Obama wins re-election, which he will be barring a major surprise (not impossible), indeed I think a great many of these men will act out, with all their honed counter insurgency skills and battle-hardened warrior experience. It will be in small groups, most likely disconnected from each other tactically. This makes them tough to stop in advance, save for mass use of powder keg round up tactics like the NDAA, which would inspire others to be sympathetic -- if not join -- their cause. The tenets of our Constitution ironically both feeds their rage (in terms of paranoia about attacks on their 2nd Amendment rights being taken away) and prevents an easy solution, or at least one that won't rile up the rest of the population due to use of what most of us would consider unconstitutional tactics, violating at least their 1st, 2nd, 4th Amendment rights.

What victims they choose will be the question. Will it be against the symbols, such as banks, or will it be against an ethnicity or race or will it be government authority. Maybe all the above.

It is a tough issue and I am sure the government has its eye on the ball. I'm sure the preference would be a major two front proactive intervention leveraging both law enforcement and veteran's mental healthcare, but preventative care won't get the funding needed due to a recalcitrant Congress. That leaves law enforcement and the government will have to dance on a tight rope on the law enforcement side if it hopes to limit disaffection of the rest of the populace.

I do not see a politically plausible solution today that both reduces the risk and leaves us trusting the government (what trust is left).

NOTE: By the way, the above explains my stridency and vehemence at the knee-jerk neocons and their ignorant supporters. Neocons -- mostly made up of chicken hawks that have never served a day in uniform (Cheney, Rice, Ryan, Seignor -- Romney's foreign policy lead, Bolton, et al) -- never think of the connected and internal long term consequences of their actions. The military professionals, like Powell, always look at hot war as a very last resort because they know better. And just tonight we have draft-dodging pu$$ies like Romney (with 5 sons who never answered the call) saber rattling about Iran and Russia...Russia for Christ's sake.

reply to post by xGuitarPlayerx


Yes I was diagnosed with stage 4 metastatic melanoma last June. I had tumors in my lungs, sinus cavities and my brain. I went through IL-2 and radiation and surgery and I'm still breathing when I probably should not be. The treatments did a number on my body though so now I can't work and am not sure what to do with my life. Thank you for the kind words and the prayers. I'll take all the Jesus I can get my freind

reply to post by pajoly


I think you're spot on with what you say. I was in the Army for 8 years, I went to Bosnia and afghanistan and that was enough for me. Just by the way you write I can tell you understand perfectly the mentality of war-vets and thats something that the average person just cannot grasp unless they've actually done it. I isolate myself from people a good bit because I don't relate to much of anything about them. Its kind of depressing but some things just cannot be unlearned. When you give so much of yourself to something that you can see first hand is not what they say it is, how can you trust anything about the system ever again? Why would you even want to be a part of it? The average person has no idea at all about how truly horrible a battlefield is. And to the younger generation its like playing COD. In a weird way I find myself looking down on ordinary folks for this reason. Like I'm better than them, and it makes me isolate myself even more.

I can very much understand the mentality of needing a cause. An enemy. After having it drilled into your head that there is one for so long its one of the things that you just can't unlearn. I know vietnam vets that still hate Asians even though the wars been over for forty years. Remember in the 90's when it was all over the media about the formation of these radical militia groups and how they were a threat to normalcy? I'm wondering why we don't see them reporting on it now so much when it seems like they would want people scared of former vets.

reply to post by pajoly


Thank you. Your comment perfectly encapsulates the reality in which I was trying to portray. I do not wish this on anyone, but "we" have created it and will reap the harvest.

In my undergraduate days, I read a book by Lt. Col. David Grossman called On Killing, in which he explains how modern militaries, particularly the US, have become very good at eliminating the natural urge to harm another in our soldiers.

I must state that I don't believe most, or even a double digit percentage, will "go off the reservation", but I am a numbers nerd, and the numbers don't luck good.

The stage appears to be set. The question is if the actors will perform.

reply to post by Cancerwarrior


As a retired Senior NCO (31 years) I can identify with what you are saying and will give you this bit of advice. Stop isolating yourself. Get back out there and mingle.

Of course many people will not understand what you went through; just as many Vietnam Vets don't understand what you went through. Sure, they served, just like you did, but their personal experiences were different. Most have only done one tour while today’s Soldiers go through multiple tours.

The big difference though is that today’s US Military is voluntary, while theirs was made up of primarily draftees, who did their time and ETS’ed.

Unless I am around Vets, I make no mention of my service, nor do I wear clothing with Military logos or have any type of sticker/license plate on my car.

I know I served…that’s good enough for me.

I hope everything is going better for ya.

reply to post by LordOfArcadia


Grossman's book, On Killing, was required reading by the Officers in my unit, and of course they urged their NCOs to read it as well.

Unfortunately, many people don’t look into what I believe is the real meaning behind the book, though the following is just my opinion.

The Military does a piss poor job of preparing its Soldiers for war in the psychological sense. Soldiers train and train for conflict, but when actually confronted with it they are not mentally capable of handling the realities of it. Hence they are traumatized. And with that traumitization comes anger.

The Military wants their people to do the mission at hand, first and foremost and give little to no thought as to how the results of said mission may affect those who partake in it.

There are few within the SpecOps community who suffer PTS. (No D TDawg? Nope, I don’t believe that it is a disorder, but rather a symptom, but that is for another thread.)

Why are there few? Because they play out the possible scenarios and think realistically of what may or may not happen.

Their world-view that their jobs require they have needs to be instituted across the board.

I think it would result in more stable people exiting the service.

reply to post by LordOfArcadia

I dont see this happening, at all, lol. I mean when Bush Jr. won both elections there were areas of the American population who felt robbed and disenfranchised. There was actually evidence to prove that they were. Did a race war begin? No. What would be different in this election if people felt robbed? I would also add that I don't think Romney will win the popular vote in most states. The electoral college also does not *usually* vote contrary to popular vote. This whole race war idea is perpetrated by people who are ignorant to the reality of the world. You can keep trying to make it happen but it ain't gonna happen. Lol.