Debunking myths: Birth rates vs Religion

Anyone who paid attention to what that Norway shooter said will have heard the following before: "Muslims will take over because they will soon outnumber us!!"

Sadly, this is something you hear a lot on ATS too, and I thought it would be interesting to check up on the FACTS to see if this is true.

Surprise: This won't be the case and REAL DATA clearly shows that the trend doesn't support the claim that in the future religion XYZ will take over because they will have more babies.

Here's Hans Rosling presenting the data in an entertaining and very visible way:



In short: You can't just use current figures and assume they will carry forward forever. Religion has very little to do with the number of children...income however does!

So to those using the old "Muslims will take over because they will outnumber us" argument, YOUR ARGUMENT HAS JUST BEEN DEBUNKED

This guy is absolutely brilliant! I've seen his talks on TED before and the stuff he does with statistics is just awesome.

It's definitely nice seeing this debunked. Just shows once again what we REALLY should wage war on and that is poverty!

Peace

Originally posted by Swizzy
This guy is absolutely brilliant! I've seen his talks on TED before and the stuff he does with statistics is just awesome.

It's definitely nice seeing this debunked. Just shows once again what we REALLY should wage war on and that is poverty!

Peace

Agreed. His presentation about poverty is mindblowing too.

Just want to explore a couple of thoughts here. I'm afraid this will be rather scatter-shot and tricky to read.

You probably noticed on his charts that there were some very poor countries having very few children. I wonder why that is?

Second, is there perhaps a link between religion and poverty? The impression I've gained is that Muslim countries, except for oil and maybe banking, don't really produce much or use their people and other resources well. Could that be connected to religious teachings? To put it provacatively, does Islam bring poverty?

Finally, I ran across this from Wiki:

Don Melvin wrote in 2004 that, excluding Russia, Europe's Muslim population will double by 2020. He also says that almost 85% of Europe's total population growth in 2005 was due to immigration in general. Omer Taspinar predicted in 2001 that the Muslim population of Europe will nearly double by 2015, while the non-Muslim will shrink by 3.5%, if the higher Muslim birth rate persists. In the UK, between 2001 and 2009, the Muslim population increased roughly 10 times faster than the rest of the population.

A 2007 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report argued that some Muslim population projections are overestimated. Philip Jenkins of Penn State University estimates that by 2100, Muslims will compose about 25% of Europe's population. Jenkins states this figure does not take account divergent birthrates amongst Europe's immigrant Christians. Other analysts are skeptical about the accuracy of the claimed Muslim population growth, stating that because many European countries do not ask a person's religion on official forms or in censuses, it has been difficult to obtain accurate estimates, and arguing that there has been a decrease in Muslim fertility rates in Morocco, the Netherlands and Turkey. A Pew Research Center study, published in January 2011, forecast an increase of Muslims in European population from 6% in 2010 to 8% in 2030. PEW also found that Muslim fertility rate in Europe would drop from 2.2 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2030. On the other hand, the non-Muslim fertility rate in Europe would increase from 1.5 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2030.

If the Muslims in the UK have a higher birth rate than non-Muslims, what would the explanation be? Many Muslims and non-Muslims have the same level of income as guaranteed by the state.

This doesn't address the fear that, through immigration, Muslims will become a majority, or powerful minority, throughout many countries not traditionally Muslim.

I'm not trying to start an argument, or state a position, Heaven knows I don't have one. But I would appreciate some fresh thoughts so I can make some sense of this. Thanks.

reply to post by charles1952


Those figures assume rates remain constant...which clearly isn't the case.

Many Muslims and non-Muslims have the same level of income as guaranteed by the state.

The state doesn't guarantee income and the main reason they are still in the lower income bracket is that first (and often second) generation immigrants earn less on average. As soon as their income levels rise the number starts decreasing.

As for Muslim countries in general, sure. A lot of fundamentalist governed countries seriously restrict science...which obviously harms economic growth. In addition, those countries often favor an "it floats to the top" approach to wealth. If the income divide is huge and a tiny minority owns most of the wealth, the large majority is still relatively poor and having many children.

Something a lot of people forget is access to birth control. That has a MASSIVE impact on population growth too. In the US for example access to birth control isn't that hard...95%+ of women use it. In Botswana that's simply not the case. Now add to that some fundamentalist religion that prohibits people from using it and you know why those countries have more babies.

Either way, it seems that no matter which religion, overall birth rates are dropping as income increases. The trend in the UK obviously isn't going to last forever, and the only growth above that is coming from immigration.

By the way, a lot of the "omg, the Muslim population has increased by 30%" stuff is nonsense because it happened from a relatively low base and therefore not as significant. An increase from 3.5% to 4.5% isn't all that drastic.