posted on Sep, 29 2012 @ 01:42 PM
I think whatever predation there is after a precipitating event, it will be very brief.
Let's suppose you are a genius lone wolf, and have a basic 75% chance of robbing any given group of campers. That means that you have only a 57%
chance of surviving two encounters in a row; and only 43% chance of surviving all three of your first encounters....
And that doesn't even account for the fact that other predators will be out there, picking off the easiest targets. So depending on how high the
proportion of predators to prey is, the prey population will be both rapidly diminished and rapidly educated as to how to survive an attack. 2 or
three weeks into it, bands of campers will have learned how to set a watch, how to set up overlapping fields of fire, how to set up decoys, and how to
cache supplies so that even a surprise attack doesn't take all supplies.
There's a second dimension I haven't even mentioned yet. Humans have a universal drive to organize themselves. Humans everywhere, at every tech
level, gather themselves into clans or chiefdoms or fiefdoms or nascent nation-states. Someone opens a bodega or a flea market, and customers offer
to help police the perimeter. The next thing you know they are building walls and checkpoints. And that is assuming absolutely NO civic organization
has survived from the previous culture. If there is a librarian or postman or fire chief that survives from the previous civilization, they are
automatically looked to as the new leader. That is what happened to the Roman Catholic Church. Originally, the bishop of Rome was seen as the least
of the 'ancient' bishops of the church. But after the Goths, the Vandals, the Magyars as the Moors, the "bishop of Rome" was the only civil
authority or intellectual left.
The third dimension is xenophobia
In addition to banding together, humans have a universal fear of outsiders. It will be easy for them to justify excluding people based on the
flimsiest of excuses. And after a collapse, there will be no ID or records. How will a village recognize someone who is a professional criminal in
that circumstance? A tattoo that can be construed to be a "prison tat" might get you killed at that point.
From a village standpoint, the best way to keep out marauders is to set up a village and build a wall around it. Next, they clear fields of fire,
with absolutely no cover out to 300 or 500 yards. They can lay out a road for vehicles, plus signposts to aid with ranging for their sniper or mortar
crew. Imagine what it would feel like to emerge from the woods with your group from the edge of the woods. In front of you is an area that has been
cleared of all "old fashioned" buildings and even vehicles, with just low crops growing. There are several burnt-out vehicles on the road leading
to town, and you can see several watchtowers along the village walls. Are you going to approach that village like you are coming in to take over? Or
do you send in a single messenger ahead to parley?