How can China afford to lose Iran?

(first post since coming back to ats)

I have been thinking about this for some time. We are all very tired of the 100's of threads amount Iran and all that so I want to address it from a different angle.

China has a population of over 1.3 billion people, in other words you could take a BILLION people out of china and they would still have more than the US. All these people, and their rapidly developing nation are literally starved for oil. In the coming years, if china's expansion continues, their oil consumption will dwarf that of the US. All this need for oil requires very constant supplies.

As we know the US has almost all of the large oil producing nations as "client" states at this point. Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Libya, the Gulf States, Iraq. They also hold the vital territories of Afghanistan,Pakistan and India, not because they produce oil, but because any gas pipeline to china must go directly through these countries.

My question is, all China has left as a major oil producing "client" state is Iran, how can they afford to lose this in the event Israel and America overthrow this country too? We all know china holds vast amounts of US debt and they could use this as a weapon (kind of) against America by threatening to sell of these treasuries. But if Iran falls America will hold a WAYYY bigger weapon against china. Namely, the control of all the worlds oil (except for Russia but they can't come close to supplying china alone).

The second china threatened the US with treasury sales, the US could just say "okay no more north american or middle eastern oil for you then." China would become north korea over night. Oil is the lifeblood of any advanced society. You need it to conduct your economy, civil society and more importantly your military. China will be at the TOTAL whim of the US if they lose Iran's reserves and the possible pipeline routes out of that country.

So my question is, how can China afford NOT to go to war for Iran? When it means subjugation to the US....

China has been doing just fine lately.

They have actually surpassed the US in Saudi oil imports and are now Saudi Arabia's biggest customer. They were awarded the largest post Saddam untapped oil fields to develop in Iraq, Also, Venezuela exports a lot of their oil to China. China is also building large oil pipelines into Central Asia in their Western territory. The former Soviet "Stans" are currently in play by several Global powers. Those should be watched.

Personally, IMO if they were smart they'd kick the "Fossil Fuel addiction" soon so as not to fall into the same trap as the US/West has of waging War for fuel and profits.


Just a thought

PEACE

The real question is - Can China AFFORD to go war with the rest of the world over Iran?

The real issue with China lays with keeping the 1.3 billion citizens pacified, with proper social expenditure for EVERYONE to remain in power.

It can't. Even without wars. It would never several times its current GDP yearly to sustain the economy.

Right now, it could only sustain the more important cities, its army and its bloated corrupted millions card waving bootlickers in the CCP govt, while the countryside starves.

With limited resources including human capital due to its lack of total social expenditure, it had only created an elite within the CCP govt, corrupted and hell bent on keeping its priviledges, even if it means the other citizens starved.

Should it decide to go war with the rest of the world over Iran's nuclear weapons deceptions, it would mean an even earlier doom, as it will fail. 2 million strong army, even if combined with Putin's Russia and other despotic states, are no match for an enraged world humanity 7 billion strong. Both sides equally have nukes.

It would only end up China being carved into far more manageable states with independence for their own destiny, far more quicker than today's blindness by the CCP to acknowledge what really needs to be done for population sustainability.

As long as China CCP govt adheres to international rule of law and upholding of human rights, there is no nation that would treat it as an enemy, but welcome them as a responsible contributing member of our world that only wishes to live in peace, love and shared prosperity for all.

Only fools seek for unstainable supremacy and power in our modern world or believe such 'rankings' should exists. Trade is the lifeblood of our world, not wars. Disrupt honest and fair trade, and there would be wars.

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101


I see what your saying. When I said war I didn't mean pitched tank battles like Kirsk, I personally believe those kind of battles are extinct. The US would hand china its but in a conventional battle.

I was more referred to what Iran did in Iraq, 2005-2006. Train fighters and supply advanced weapons. China doesn't need to move any tanks to defeat America should they get involved in Iran.

Originally posted by IsThisThingBugged
I was more referred to what Iran did in Iraq, 2005-2006. Train fighters and supply advanced weapons. China doesn't need to move any tanks to defeat America should they get involved in Iran.

I always question...


When anybody proposes such a scenario why is it that only those apposed to the US/West are capable of such endeavors and activities? If what we read here on a daily bases about Libya, Egypt and now Syria is true then the US/West are very good at training, funding and supporting those very activities. But in these hypotheticals regarding Iran all of that seems to be forgotten..

Interesting.

reply to post by IsThisThingBugged


It would ultimately still lead back to a confrontation with China CCP govt if they do as your suggests, for the world are not fools to believe Iran could sustain a war with immense weaponery alone, the way the Syrian Regime is doing today, being propped up by Iran, with full admittance by its intelligence chief yesterday.

The CCP govt are not fools. Never under-estimate them. They too, are chess players, with 5000 years of recorded civilisation. They know full well what are the odds, outside China and WITHIN China.

Iran is on its own. But no one wants war, not even China nor does it even want an nuclear armed Iran.

It is only up to the Iranian leaders to do the right thing now - open up the nuke sites for safety inspections by IAEA freely if they indeed had NOT pursued nuke armament, in a world that had long been jittery eversince the realities of the nuke station Fukishima accident sunk in.

reply to post by SLAYER69


I wasn't saying America does not engage in these activities. We made "Al Queda" mujadeen in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, were masters of unconventional warfare.

Libya is a perfect example because its public record. The US admits it sent special forces trainers into Libya as everybody knows. But lets observe the tactics the Free Libya Army used, it was that of terrorist not army regiment units. So its quite obvious that the special forces units were training these fighters in guerrilla, terrorist tactics not squad based, military tactics.

However, any large incursion involving Iran would not employ these guerrilla tactics but more conventional means.

reply to post by IsThisThingBugged


China owns shares of Alberta's oil industry. I can't post links, I'm posting from a phone, but google will tell details.
If Obama wanted America to be our only client, he shouldn't have turned down the Keystone pipeline. Apparently, if the US still wants our oil, we have enough for both China and the US and ourselves.

reply to post by IsThisThingBugged


Again...

Another point I question about that scenario is that Iraq and Iran fought each other to a virtual stand still. Neither side really prevailing over the other. The Western powers then soon after dismantled Saddam's Military relatively quickly [Which at the time was the 5th largest military on the planet] Now. The Western powers have supposedly taken out Libya and Egypt with Syria on the rocks [Some say it's just a matter of weeks] before they capitulate.

How is it now that Iran has reached such mythical impregnability and level of immense power in their own defense? AND Why would any sort of activity involve conventional forces? Iran has had a long history of their own internal struggle with indigenous groups who are apposed to their Government and have been fairly effective without outside support.

Just like how those indigenous tribal groups 'Mujaheddin" formed in opposition to the Soviet invasion which we later supported and supplied. Not only that but a large percentage of Iran's population are not supportive of the present regime as demonstrated by those tens of thousands in the street during their last election debuckle.

China has actually benefited immensely from the recent events regarding Iraq, Afghanistan [Mineral rights] and now Libya. If anything it would be in their favor like it has been so far. The US/West have done the fighting and China steps in and is granted development rights.

Just an observation is all.

Many businessmen doing business in China often makes the mistake of believing the Chinese culture is the same as the west. It is not.

I once had a biz aquintance who did biz in China, controlled by the local Traid boss. He would lavish presents, cash and luxury entertainments upon the traid boss, in the hope of favors one day. He thought he got that boss wound round his little finger, and often boasts so.

That day came when he ran afoul of the law, and he ran to the traid boss for help. That boss invited him to a lunch, wish him well, paid for lunch and walked away, leaving that poor guy sweating heaps enough to book the next flight out quickly.

My point is - the culture of the Chinese mind is far different from the West. In the West, a handshake is a long honored tradition and culture,even in modern times with volumes of legal documents to back it up. To the easterner, a handshake is but a 'red haired' devil invention, to be disregarded, and any human - foreigner or local, are to use or manipulated for one's personal gain.

NOT ALL chinese are like that, but majority of them are such, more so those in power.

Iran has no friend, best they acknowledge it and wake up from their deluded regional ambitions. Right now, only the Free World is their friend, for that is all that is stopping a war between them and Israel from happening, with only sanctions. The Free world's requests are not difficult to comply.

May the Iranian leaders, for the sake of their own innocent citizens, if not peace, come to terms with reality. No man lives forever.....

There is oil/gas under that little island between china and the Philippines....both claim that island.

England gave the Philippines +1 billion for the energy resources under that island and has had their corporations dump billions into the Philippines. Now America's got to use her guns to back England's purchase.

We will be opening fire shortly to keep China from getting those resources. The dragon has to be choked to keep her from surpassing us technologically. Nice fire going on now in Venezuala refineries. Who did dat?

reply to post by IsThisThingBugged


My belief is that China is absolutely engaging with Iran. Just by proxy. China basically invented the art of war and are highly adept at it. They have powerful friends ( the USA ) who are deeply in debt to them.

It's chess... and right now I believe that China is the player. The US is their king... and our allies ( Israel, the UK, etc ) are the pawns.

~Heff

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101

Iran has no friend, best they acknowledge it and wake up from their deluded regional ambitions. Right now, only the Free World is their friend, for that is all that is stopping a war between them and Israel from happening, with only sanctions. The Free world's requests are not difficult to comply.

Iran has plenty of friends. Your news station won't tell you that but theys seriously do. 57 Islamics states back the iranian nuclear program and along with them, another 61 or so. That is over half the world I think... The question is, who are they?

What free world are you referring to? I really do not see a free world anywhere. Even in your country, you must pay for everything.

May the Iranian leaders, for the sake of their own innocent citizens, if not peace, come to terms with reality. No man lives forever

Why don't you come back to reality? The only way the Iranians citizens will be harmed is if the Israelis bomb the crap out of them... Look up CIA coup 1953 and educate yourself about Iran and the corrupt west. No wonder they took hostages and told yous to f**k off in 79. Least they had the decency to spare those hostages.. Savages aren't they?

Originally posted by DarknStormy
Iran has plenty of friends. Your news station won't tell you that but theys seriously do. 57 Islamics states back the iranian nuclear program and along with them, another 61 or so. That is over half the world I think... The question is, who are they?

Dunno...

You're the one making the outlandish claim..

Originally posted by DarknStormy

Iran has plenty of friends. Your news station won't tell you that but theys seriously do. 57 Islamics states back the iranian nuclear program and along with them, another 61 or so. That is over half the world I think... The question is, who are they?

What free world are you referring to? I really do not see a free world anywhere. Even in your country, you must pay for everything.

Why don't you come back to reality? The only way the Iranians citizens will be harmed is if the Israelis bomb the crap out of them... Look up CIA coup 1953 and educate yourself about Iran and the corrupt west. No wonder they took hostages and told yous to f**k off in 79. Least they had the decency to spare those hostages.. Savages aren't they?

edit on 25-8-2012 by DarknStormy because: (no reason given)

Despite your irrational rant which I normally would not have bothered to give you a reply, I would like to take the opportunity to shed some illumination to your darkened mind.

1. If not held back, Israel will only attack those isololated nuke sites developing weapons by increased enrichment. It has no further aims to the nation, its capital or cities, unless Iran retaliates foolishly upon Israel cities.


2. It is ONE thing for muslim nations to support Iran's desire for peaceful nuclear energy, and another for nuclear sites WITHOUT safety inspection by IAEA, AND TOTALLY QUITE ANOTHER for a SHIA minority sect such as Iran to aquire nuke weapons, something which NO Sunni muslim nations wanted in a world that is hugely concerned with nuclear proliferation.

May my points be enough to wake you up to your delusions of the real world, though I doubt so.

I don't expect Iran's current government to be overthrown. If it were, its successor would still need to sell oil. It would still sell oil to China. The whole affair would mean a temporary lull in oil imports, which China can manage.

Their problem is not that the US could coerce a friendly government into cutting off oil exports to China, because no government would be willing to do that and especially not if the US was unwilling to pick up the cost.

Their problem is that Chinese imports/exports move through waters where their navy isn't present. In an extreme scenario the US Navy could effectively veto Chinese trade, because their navy isn't there to guarantee access. An even greater issue is that geography means that China is not a difficult country to impose a blockade upon.

News of Chinese navy build-up and the development of land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles should be seen through the prism of this issue. It also lends reason to their otherwise absurd maritime claims; they are afraid of being boxed in. The idea is to create and expand a zone where the PLA-N is and where the US Navy can't go, but that isn't going to happen any time soon. In the meantime, China would do well to avoid conflict with the US.

So China can afford to lose Iran, because it isn't really losing Iran. China can't afford to engage in any serious conflict with the US, not for a long while at least. If the US tried to 'do an Iraq' on Iran (I don't think it will), it would represent a sink for US attention and resources which would be massively beneficial to China, not to mention Russia. If the US managed to get rid of the current government in Iran, it would not be guaranteed a friendly successor government (see Iraq) and even the most US-friendly government would still sell oil to China. Most importantly, if the US came along and tried to get rid of Iran's current government, China couldn't do anything meaningful about it even if it were worth the risk and there was anything to gain from doing it.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Iran and Iraq fought to a standstill because Iran didn't want to counter invade Iraq. They simply wanted to hold their borders. They had a virtually non existent air force and were totally at the mercy of the Iraqi Air Force. They held out and crippled any Iraqi drives into Iran.

Not a single Iranian soldier stepped foot in Iraq because they didn't want to or need to. If they had they would've suffered heavy casualties but would've driven through Saddam's heart.

Also, the Iraqi army was strangled by economic sanctions before the US launched its invasion in early 2003. The Iraqi Air Force didn't take to the skies and fight, and vast swathes of the Iraqi army didn't even take to the field. It was largely left to the Mujahadeen and paramilitary forces who fought the US.

Iran has spent the last 20 years arming itself for conflict and instilled a fanatical pride in their people.

Iran isn't some army forced to fight for a dictator but they are a (largely) volunteer force armed with some pretty significant weaponry.

Iran is 12th on the world power rankings.. Iraq is 30th.. Iran is more powerful than a large amount of nuclear armed nations and they don't have 'The Bomb' which is pretty impressive.

If Iran was so easy to walk over, the US would've done it by now. They are bloody fanatical and willing to die for Mahdi..

Good luck trying to walk over them like you did Iraq (who still kept you bogged down for nearly a decade).

reply to post by IsThisThingBugged

there is no need that China afford anything ! no war will take place with Iran. overthrowing is hard in Iran. why!?
because it is experienced in coups and colored revolutions ! and ofcourse in long classic and asymmetric war with Saddam ! a border throughout all the persian gulf and Oman sea ! a big country in the middle of middle east with large influence therein and near Israel !!!
do you really think that Saudi arabia will remain in hands of USA ! just suppose all that countries buy oil from Saudy, instead of Iran. Saudies will not last long ! it's stability is endangered by power war of Saudy's princes or by revolution of people !

What else does Iran really export besides oil; I also doubt that Iranian citizens prop up China's economy by buying all the cheap products it produces. China I am sure is aware no matter who runs Iran oil will still be there, so China needs the US more than they need Iran, so if they chose a side do you really think it would be Iran's?

Knowing a few Iranians myself here in the US none of them support the dictator that's head of Iran, but since the police is actually military, it is ran more or less like it's under marshal law, when a country is in such a state good luck removing whomever sits in power.

reply to post by BigBrotherDarkness

would you ask my compatriots who that Dictator is !!!