(first post since coming back to ats)

I have been thinking about this for some time. We are all very tired of the 100's of threads amount Iran and all that so I want to address it from a different angle.

China has a population of over 1.3 billion people, in other words you could take a BILLION people out of china and they would still have more than the US. All these people, and their rapidly developing nation are literally starved for oil. In the coming years, if china's expansion continues, their oil consumption will dwarf that of the US. All this need for oil requires very constant supplies.

As we know the US has almost all of the large oil producing nations as "client" states at this point. Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Libya, the Gulf States, Iraq. They also hold the vital territories of Afghanistan,Pakistan and India, not because they produce oil, but because any gas pipeline to china must go directly through these countries.

My question is, all China has left as a major oil producing "client" state is Iran, how can they afford to lose this in the event Israel and America overthrow this country too? We all know china holds vast amounts of US debt and they could use this as a weapon (kind of) against America by threatening to sell of these treasuries. But if Iran falls America will hold a WAYYY bigger weapon against china. Namely, the control of all the worlds oil (except for Russia but they can't come close to supplying china alone).

The second china threatened the US with treasury sales, the US could just say "okay no more north american or middle eastern oil for you then." China would become north korea over night. Oil is the lifeblood of any advanced society. You need it to conduct your economy, civil society and more importantly your military. China will be at the TOTAL whim of the US if they lose Iran's reserves and the possible pipeline routes out of that country.

So my question is, how can China afford NOT to go to war for Iran? When it means subjugation to the US....

China has been doing just fine lately.

They have actually surpassed the US in Saudi oil imports and are now Saudi Arabia's biggest customer. They were awarded the largest post Saddam untapped oil fields to develop in Iraq, Also, Venezuela exports a lot of their oil to China. China is also building large oil pipelines into Central Asia in their Western territory. The former Soviet "Stans" are currently in play by several Global powers. Those should be watched.

Personally, IMO if they were smart they'd kick the "Fossil Fuel addiction" soon so as not to fall into the same trap as the US/West has of waging War for fuel and profits.


Just a thought

PEACE

The real question is - Can China AFFORD to go war with the rest of the world over Iran?

The real issue with China lays with keeping the 1.3 billion citizens pacified, with proper social expenditure for EVERYONE to remain in power.

It can't. Even without wars. It would never several times its current GDP yearly to sustain the economy.

Right now, it could only sustain the more important cities, its army and its bloated corrupted millions card waving bootlickers in the CCP govt, while the countryside starves.

With limited resources including human capital due to its lack of total social expenditure, it had only created an elite within the CCP govt, corrupted and hell bent on keeping its priviledges, even if it means the other citizens starved.

Should it decide to go war with the rest of the world over Iran's nuclear weapons deceptions, it would mean an even earlier doom, as it will fail. 2 million strong army, even if combined with Putin's Russia and other despotic states, are no match for an enraged world humanity 7 billion strong. Both sides equally have nukes.

It would only end up China being carved into far more manageable states with independence for their own destiny, far more quicker than today's blindness by the CCP to acknowledge what really needs to be done for population sustainability.

As long as China CCP govt adheres to international rule of law and upholding of human rights, there is no nation that would treat it as an enemy, but welcome them as a responsible contributing member of our world that only wishes to live in peace, love and shared prosperity for all.

Only fools seek for unstainable supremacy and power in our modern world or believe such 'rankings' should exists. Trade is the lifeblood of our world, not wars. Disrupt honest and fair trade, and there would be wars.

Originally posted by IsThisThingBugged
I was more referred to what Iran did in Iraq, 2005-2006. Train fighters and supply advanced weapons. China doesn't need to move any tanks to defeat America should they get involved in Iran.

I always question...


When anybody proposes such a scenario why is it that only those apposed to the US/West are capable of such endeavors and activities? If what we read here on a daily bases about Libya, Egypt and now Syria is true then the US/West are very good at training, funding and supporting those very activities. But in these hypotheticals regarding Iran all of that seems to be forgotten..

Interesting.

Many businessmen doing business in China often makes the mistake of believing the Chinese culture is the same as the west. It is not.

I once had a biz aquintance who did biz in China, controlled by the local Traid boss. He would lavish presents, cash and luxury entertainments upon the traid boss, in the hope of favors one day. He thought he got that boss wound round his little finger, and often boasts so.

That day came when he ran afoul of the law, and he ran to the traid boss for help. That boss invited him to a lunch, wish him well, paid for lunch and walked away, leaving that poor guy sweating heaps enough to book the next flight out quickly.

My point is - the culture of the Chinese mind is far different from the West. In the West, a handshake is a long honored tradition and culture,even in modern times with volumes of legal documents to back it up. To the easterner, a handshake is but a 'red haired' devil invention, to be disregarded, and any human - foreigner or local, are to use or manipulated for one's personal gain.

NOT ALL chinese are like that, but majority of them are such, more so those in power.

Iran has no friend, best they acknowledge it and wake up from their deluded regional ambitions. Right now, only the Free World is their friend, for that is all that is stopping a war between them and Israel from happening, with only sanctions. The Free world's requests are not difficult to comply.

May the Iranian leaders, for the sake of their own innocent citizens, if not peace, come to terms with reality. No man lives forever.....

There is oil/gas under that little island between china and the Philippines....both claim that island.

England gave the Philippines +1 billion for the energy resources under that island and has had their corporations dump billions into the Philippines. Now America's got to use her guns to back England's purchase.

We will be opening fire shortly to keep China from getting those resources. The dragon has to be choked to keep her from surpassing us technologically. Nice fire going on now in Venezuala refineries. Who did dat?

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101

Iran has no friend, best they acknowledge it and wake up from their deluded regional ambitions. Right now, only the Free World is their friend, for that is all that is stopping a war between them and Israel from happening, with only sanctions. The Free world's requests are not difficult to comply.

Iran has plenty of friends. Your news station won't tell you that but theys seriously do. 57 Islamics states back the iranian nuclear program and along with them, another 61 or so. That is over half the world I think... The question is, who are they?

What free world are you referring to? I really do not see a free world anywhere. Even in your country, you must pay for everything.

May the Iranian leaders, for the sake of their own innocent citizens, if not peace, come to terms with reality. No man lives forever

Why don't you come back to reality? The only way the Iranians citizens will be harmed is if the Israelis bomb the crap out of them... Look up CIA coup 1953 and educate yourself about Iran and the corrupt west. No wonder they took hostages and told yous to f**k off in 79. Least they had the decency to spare those hostages.. Savages aren't they?

Originally posted by DarknStormy
Iran has plenty of friends. Your news station won't tell you that but theys seriously do. 57 Islamics states back the iranian nuclear program and along with them, another 61 or so. That is over half the world I think... The question is, who are they?

Dunno...

You're the one making the outlandish claim..

Originally posted by DarknStormy

Iran has plenty of friends. Your news station won't tell you that but theys seriously do. 57 Islamics states back the iranian nuclear program and along with them, another 61 or so. That is over half the world I think... The question is, who are they?

What free world are you referring to? I really do not see a free world anywhere. Even in your country, you must pay for everything.

Why don't you come back to reality? The only way the Iranians citizens will be harmed is if the Israelis bomb the crap out of them... Look up CIA coup 1953 and educate yourself about Iran and the corrupt west. No wonder they took hostages and told yous to f**k off in 79. Least they had the decency to spare those hostages.. Savages aren't they?

edit on 25-8-2012 by DarknStormy because: (no reason given)

Despite your irrational rant which I normally would not have bothered to give you a reply, I would like to take the opportunity to shed some illumination to your darkened mind.

1. If not held back, Israel will only attack those isololated nuke sites developing weapons by increased enrichment. It has no further aims to the nation, its capital or cities, unless Iran retaliates foolishly upon Israel cities.


2. It is ONE thing for muslim nations to support Iran's desire for peaceful nuclear energy, and another for nuclear sites WITHOUT safety inspection by IAEA, AND TOTALLY QUITE ANOTHER for a SHIA minority sect such as Iran to aquire nuke weapons, something which NO Sunni muslim nations wanted in a world that is hugely concerned with nuclear proliferation.

May my points be enough to wake you up to your delusions of the real world, though I doubt so.

I don't expect Iran's current government to be overthrown. If it were, its successor would still need to sell oil. It would still sell oil to China. The whole affair would mean a temporary lull in oil imports, which China can manage.

Their problem is not that the US could coerce a friendly government into cutting off oil exports to China, because no government would be willing to do that and especially not if the US was unwilling to pick up the cost.

Their problem is that Chinese imports/exports move through waters where their navy isn't present. In an extreme scenario the US Navy could effectively veto Chinese trade, because their navy isn't there to guarantee access. An even greater issue is that geography means that China is not a difficult country to impose a blockade upon.

News of Chinese navy build-up and the development of land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles should be seen through the prism of this issue. It also lends reason to their otherwise absurd maritime claims; they are afraid of being boxed in. The idea is to create and expand a zone where the PLA-N is and where the US Navy can't go, but that isn't going to happen any time soon. In the meantime, China would do well to avoid conflict with the US.

So China can afford to lose Iran, because it isn't really losing Iran. China can't afford to engage in any serious conflict with the US, not for a long while at least. If the US tried to 'do an Iraq' on Iran (I don't think it will), it would represent a sink for US attention and resources which would be massively beneficial to China, not to mention Russia. If the US managed to get rid of the current government in Iran, it would not be guaranteed a friendly successor government (see Iraq) and even the most US-friendly government would still sell oil to China. Most importantly, if the US came along and tried to get rid of Iran's current government, China couldn't do anything meaningful about it even if it were worth the risk and there was anything to gain from doing it.

What else does Iran really export besides oil; I also doubt that Iranian citizens prop up China's economy by buying all the cheap products it produces. China I am sure is aware no matter who runs Iran oil will still be there, so China needs the US more than they need Iran, so if they chose a side do you really think it would be Iran's?

Knowing a few Iranians myself here in the US none of them support the dictator that's head of Iran, but since the police is actually military, it is ran more or less like it's under marshal law, when a country is in such a state good luck removing whomever sits in power.