Electoral College Prediction Model Points To...

Originally posted by Praetorius
reply to post by bigfatfurrytexan

 

BFT - to clarify, those donor lists usually track the reported employers of the actual donors - it shouldn't be the noted organizations donating directly themselves.

Those in the banking & finance world seem to think Romney will be a more useful option this time around.

Which isn't surprising. Not in the least.

But lets be honest...when Obama was elected he put billions into the pockets of that sector, at least at the top. While it may be better with Romney, it is still pretty good for them under Obama.

I don't want either one of these guys in office. They're both on the side of banks, wall street, oil, big pharma, big corps. Enough is enough. I've had enough if being lied to. We shouldn't have to live this way.

I'm bitter! While people sit in prison for weed...these guys get away w/ murder...ridiculous!!!


IM DONE W/ THIS CORRUPT SYSTEM!!!

Where in the hell does a person go to get away from this? I hate the answer!

reply to post by tracehd1

I'm bitter! While people sit in prison for weed...these guys get away w/ murder...ridiculous!!!

Plenty of people feel the same way that you do. However, the current administration's DOJ has not prosecuted a single financial big wig in the fallout of the financial collapse. Zero

"Report: Cronyism, political donations likely behind Obama, Holder failure to charge any bankers"
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Misoir


My crystal ball prediction is that if Obama loses by anything other than a landslide he will fight ever result tooth and nail in the courts claiming disenfranchisement of minorities, or whatever else he can do to get the "people" spun-up.

His ultimate goal being to stay in power of course; however, if not to at least get some good ole fashioned race riots going maybe just for spite then again in hopes the Governors will call for federal assistance.

Even if it’s a landslide I see him fighting tooth and nail in the courts county by county until they find enough uncounted votes in the trunks of cars to make a difference.

If he loses the general election I would not want to live in a non-minority neighborhood in Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago or D.C. Think the OJ verdict and the Rodney King thing got people spun-up wait till the messiah of the people is voted out of office.

This model won't work this time. The Republican platform is on the path to self destruction. You simply are not going to win an election without the minority, women and senior vote. Romney hasn't done well in any of those categories, and the Ryan pick has alienated seniors even more. Akin's comments have hurt them with women, you know it is bad when even Fox News is worried about his impact. Couple that with disillusioned Republicans that are tired of the religious right trying to dictate policy, and Romney is in more trouble than most people realize.

here is one that has obama in the lead, but these are bias maps most likely to sway public opinion towards being on the winning side, that is what they vote in the end. Now this may be too large so...



freedomslighthouse.net...

Originally posted by RealSpoke

And you still have clowns on here rooting for Romney when his entire donor is the banking cartel. Very intelligent.

edit on 23-8-2012 by RealSpoke because: (no reason given)

think about how much that money could do for the country,, instead of funding the countries most popular popularity contest

reply to post by Misoir

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

The report of this drastically overstates their case for 'success'. Even the University of Colorado press release is inaccurate in this regard. (you should always go to the original source for this stuff even if HuffPo is more reliable than many internet sources).

The model has NOT "forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980" because it has not been in existence since 1980.

What has happened is that they have built a model that matches the results of past events. It is relatively easy to establish models that produce results that match past results. That is not "forecasting", that is "striving to understand". There have been lots of models, some worked for a while, some didn't.

These researchers have made a prediction based on their model. Fine. They like their methodology and the only way to test it is to actually make a prediction. They have inserted a lot of caveats into their prediction though. Their model only holds for 'if the election were held today', 'a lot can change between now and the election', etc. That doesn't make it any more 'valuable' than the standard polls that everybody and their paperboy are publishing.

My prediction is that their model will fail, because President Obama will be elected. Comfortably. When my forecast comes true, will you come running to me in 2016 to predict the winner so we don't have to spend so much money on actually holding an election? I'll do it for a fraction of the cost.

reply to post by RealSpoke


What I dont understand is, do his supporters know this information and dont care? Or are they just not provided with the proper information? Because I feel like once you know the stats on him, and his donors the writings on the wall.

Whats with so many people being for Romney? I still find it shocking. I mean, Obama isnt great all the time, but Romney just seems like such a crap candidate, from his financial background, to his hypocrisy, to his budget giving him a tax cut, and his lack of selflessess.

An election is always a choosing who would be the least worst.

Unfortunately 2008 was an emotional election, between a history-making choice and an old man who really didn't seem to care if he won or not. Neither were good choices.

This time in 2012 voting for Obama won't be a vote to make history. This time the choice will be between an agenda driven change monger surrounded by doubt and mistrust, or a perceived return to stability with someone who at least has a background in business, economics and finance.

Congress and the Executive branch have dug us a huge hole, and if we're to get out of it, the next decade will be filled with disappointing decisions none of us will be happy with.

Whoever you vote for government wins.

Nothing will change, never has never will. False promises, and false choices.

“When offered a choice between two politically intolerable alternatives, it is important to choose neither. And when that choice is presented in rival arguments and debates that exclude from public consideration any other set of possibilities, it becomes a duty to withdraw from those arguments and debates, so as to resist the imposition of this false choice by those who have arrogated to themselves the power of framing the alternatives.” – Alasdair MacIntyre, Scottish political philosopher.

Don't vote, organise!

Don’t vote, organise – the reasoning behind the slogan

Originally posted by SamLuv
reply to post by RealSpoke

 

What I dont understand is, do his supporters know this information and dont care? Or are they just not provided with the proper information? Because I feel like once you know the stats on him, and his donors the writings on the wall.

Whats with so many people being for Romney? I still find it shocking. I mean, Obama isnt great all the time, but Romney just seems like such a crap candidate, from his financial background, to his hypocrisy, to his budget giving him a tax cut, and his lack of selflessess.

"selesssess"?
"selflessness"? Oh that's right! Only "liberal democrats" care about the well being of other people.

While I would tend to agree Romney is a "crap candidate" ( I dearly wish for any politician I could 100% throw my weight behind)( Ron Paul is almost "there") at least he (Romney) doesn't surround himself with radical liberal activists.

That's enough for alot of folks.

The bankers ARE out for themselves..
Liberals THINK they are "helping others" By heavily wielding the govt hammer.
Personally I''ll take the bullet I can see coming instead of the knife in the back hidden inside a nice apology letter.

I posted this response here but it works just as well in this thread;

According to talkingpointsmemo.com; Obama is calculated as having 274 electoral votes to Romney's 191.

Slightly more mainstream NY times shows Obama ahead 237 to 206.

More to the right at realclearpolitics.com show Obama up 201 to 191.

At 270towin.com they have Obama up 217 to 191.

CNN currently has the president with 237 to 206.

Even Karl Rove's weekly electoral projection has Obama up 172 to 96, add in the 'leading' states and you get Obama 271 vs. Romney 182.

Now, is it possible that Romney could sweep up those toss-up states for the win? Absolutely. Anything is possible.Remember, Obama took 53% of the vote in 2008 and about 75% of the electoral votes. If his numbers are anywhere near that come November then you're looking at another Obama term.

I even updated the numbers from last month.

A Dem or a Rep in the house won't matter a lick as they'll still work for the same FEW people.

Does anyone really believe that if Mitt gets in office there will be any change?

Does anyone really believe that if Barry stays in office there will be any difference?

No matter the elected PR department, the same bureaucracy will be in place and control making as much $ as ever. Each party panders to the folks that vote them in office but only work for those who pay to keep them in office, and those paying folks are reaping handsome rewards.

Derek

Well if it turns out they're right it will be skittles and sunshine in 2013. 4-1/2% unemployment, lowered taxes, booming economy, end to global warming, everyone holding hands and singing kumbaya. Life in the good old Unites Stated will be like a Coke commercial. Happy days... happy days...

I hate both candidates so much that i wasn't going to bother voting at all this election. But then Romney chose Paul Ryan as his VP, and now i feel as if i have no choice but to vote for Obama. Paul Ryan's federal budget plan is one of the most atrocious, despicable, short-sighted things i have ever seen. I can't possibly overstate how terrible it is. Funny that Republicans complain about class warfare, when Ryan's budget plan is basically class warfare against the middle and lower class.
Anybody who isn't filthy rich who supports Romney/Ryan is either delusional, uninformed, or just plain idiotic.

Originally posted by RealSpoke

And you still have clowns on here rooting for Romney when his entire donor is the banking cartel. Very intelligent.

edit on 23-8-2012 by RealSpoke because: (no reason given)

Of course you do, because the entire (R) modus operandi for years now has been do go opposite what suckers think they stand for (for example, claiming to be pro-freedom, anti-debt, etc.), while tricking non-thinkers into supporting them by blatantly lying about what they stand for.

I think the Dems are mostly a bunch of scumbags, but the Reps are generally scumbags who are more harmful to those of us earning under $1M annually, while always pushing to limit freedoms and control personal choice. Yeah, Dems may be the lesser of two evils, but for God's sake, vote with your pocket book if nothing else until something better comes along.

I've known people who only earn $100-150k/yr vote Republican based on their tax ideals, and I just don't get it. I'm in that bracket, and I vote Dem mainly because I don't want the dollar weakened from the millionaire/billionaire taxes going down while mine stay the same.

reply to post by ANOK


Preach it, brother!

When WILL people learn? Trying to figure out the lesser of two evils- when neither represent a true choice- is pointless. Refuse to vote for either. People need to wake up.

reply to post by LeSigh


Half of the population doesn't even vote as it is. What good is fewer people voting going to do?

Non participation changes nothing!