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Electoral College Prediction Model Points To...

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posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 06:28 AM
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Huffington Post


Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press statement.

To predict the race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.


It appears these two political scientists have correctly predicted the outcome of every Presidential election since 1980. If their predictions hold true for the 9th time in a row, we will have a President Mitt Romney by next January. I consider such a large win a long shot, but hey, I am not a political scientist nor have I accurately predicted any Presidential election other than 2008. So we will see come November who does win, by what margin, and whether these guys are correct.

Either way, the fans of Mitt Romney and his reluctant supporters, should be a bit more enthusiastic now.




posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 06:44 AM
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Seems the author is hedging his bet.

admits that there is a chance model may not work this time.

I say that in November they will have to go back to the drawing board and come up with a better model.


+5 more 
posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 06:46 AM
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And you still have clowns on here rooting for Romney when his entire donor is the banking cartel. Very intelligent.
edit on 23-8-2012 by RealSpoke because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 06:54 AM
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Originally posted by RealSpoke

And you still have clowns on here rooting for Romney when his entire donor is the banking cartel. Very intelligent.


This is as it should be.........
edit on 23-8-2012 by de_Genova because:




posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:03 AM
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reply to post by RealSpoke
 


IN 2008 it was the big banks backing Obama. So, according to your chart, Romney will win!!



Were you awake in 2008?


In 2008, Barack Obama was the toast of Wall Street. The nation's biggest banks were among the most lavish contributors to the Democratic upstart's presidential campaign.

But so far in the 2012 race, the six largest U.S. banks have switched sides in a dramatic way, and are giving far more money to GOP hopeful Mitt Romney than they are to the sitting president, according to the most recent campaign-finance reports.

At the largest commercial banks, the swing is not quite as extreme. But Romney leads Obama in fund-raising at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, whereas in 2008 Obama raised nearly four times as much cash from those four institutions than McCain did.

Representatives of the six banks either declined to comment on the partisan shift in contributions or did not respond to interview requests. Obama's reelection campaign also did not respond to a request for comment.


www.bankinvestmentconsultant.com...
edit on 23-8-2012 by jibeho because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:10 AM
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And Politico's election tracker has Obama winning handily, so what. No one cares until election day anyway.



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:18 AM
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reply to post by DarkKnight76
 


I've followed many elections. This election year simply cannot be predicted. We may end up 269-269. Right now intrade has Obama at 57% and Romney at 42%. The dark horse will be Paul Ryan. As he was picked not for the "bump" in the polls, but to solidify the base and actually swing the battleground states. My bet is 269-269.

www.intrade.com...



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:21 AM
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reply to post by RELDDIR
 


On the very morning of the SCOTUS' (Supreme Court Of The United States) decision on the individual mandate of Obamacare, intrade was 2 to 1 against the mandate. And we very well know what happened.
edit on 23-8-2012 by RELDDIR because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:23 AM
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reply to post by jibeho
 


And? Relevance? It would make sense for you to say this to me if I actually liked Obama.

You cheer on Romney, who is backed by a banking cartel. I don't, never have, never will. Can you explain why you support baking cartels? What have they ever done good for this country or anyone? Nothing but harm. So why would you vote for Romney?

You realize how much you're being played? You do. Hence why you tried to deflect with Obamas 2008 fundraising.
edit on 23-8-2012 by RealSpoke because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:24 AM
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reply to post by RealSpoke
 


Hey, I've been played....like a piano by Romney. LOL



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:26 AM
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Originally posted by RealSpoke


And you still have clowns on here rooting for Romney when his entire donor is the banking cartel. Very intelligent.
edit on 23-8-2012 by RealSpoke because: (no reason given)


That is scary.

Even scarier is that the donors to Obama are knowledge keepers (Google, Cal, Harvard).

And on that note, why is a public university donating money to a candidate? Are we talking about the same California that is bankrupt? And money is being filtered from their tax coffers into donations for a presidential candidate?

For the life of me i cannot figure out why people vote for candidates that corporations are so adamant about supporting.
edit on 23-8-2012 by bigfatfurrytexan because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:26 AM
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reply to post by RealSpoke
 


wow is that really how it works
the one with the most money wins?

if so then that's just so stupid. in my opinion each person running should be given the same amount from the government funds( budget) and that's it. no adding to it and no sponsors. and every cent should be accounted for and published.

love and harmony
Whateva



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:29 AM
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IMO, they should just ban "foreign donations."



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:29 AM
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reply to post by Whateva69
 


You could do that. But then the candidate could find the best gambler in the country, let him in with 10% and take him to Las Vegas. For the campaign you are given $90 mil and you go against your competitor with $900 mil.



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:33 AM
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reply to post by Misoir
 


I see your point, but how will every independent or third party run? It can't always come out of government money. Then everyone would try to make their case.



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:35 AM
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And there will still be "manipulation" of the system. To be really honest here, I think our system sucks. But, this is as good as it gets.



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:39 AM
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Originally posted by Whateva69
reply to post by RealSpoke
 


wow is that really how it works
the one with the most money wins?

if so then that's just so stupid. in my opinion each person running should be given the same amount from the government funds( budget) and that's it. no adding to it and no sponsors. and every cent should be accounted for and published.

love and harmony
Whateva


For this to happen, they would have to vote to do this to themselves.

How many men do you know who would cut off their own nethers?



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 07:59 AM
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Predictions are fun...but that's all they are.

I would be very surprised if either of them win by that large of a margin...I think it will be very close...but hey...that is just another prediction.

I wish there was more detailed information about what they looked at...they say economic indicators. If they are using unemployment as one of their main indicators, then it's not surprising that they have Obama losing. But the unemployment this time around is a bit different because everyone knows it's high due to the recession and not because of Obama.



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 08:52 AM
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reply to post by bigfatfurrytexan
 
BFT - to clarify, those donor lists usually track the reported employers of the actual donors - it shouldn't be the noted organizations donating directly themselves.

Those in the banking & finance world seem to think Romney will be a more useful option this time around.



posted on Aug, 23 2012 @ 10:49 AM
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Originally posted by RealSpoke
reply to post by jibeho
 


And? Relevance? It would make sense for you to say this to me if I actually liked Obama.

You cheer on Romney, who is backed by a banking cartel. I don't, never have, never will. Can you explain why you support baking cartels? What have they ever done good for this country or anyone? Nothing but harm. So why would you vote for Romney?

You realize how much you're being played? You do. Hence why you tried to deflect with Obamas 2008 fundraising.
edit on 23-8-2012 by RealSpoke because: (no reason given)


Do you even know what you're talking about? This thread was about predictions.... You shared your evil bankster chart to show where they were spending money this year. I simply stated facts regarding who they backed with ferocity in 2008. They backed Obama and Obama won. They thought Obama would handle the economy better than McCain. We all know how that went....

They now back Romney... So Romney will win?? Isn't that how it works with those evil banksters??

Where did I state that I support the "banking cartels" that you speak of? I support the presentation of facts and all information pertinent to the topic. I am more against a government that paved the road for all of the banking ills of the past. Time to move on in a fashion that will heal this nation and restore it to what it once was....

Funny.. You think I'm being played...and I think that you're being played. Pretty neato.... Get used to it... Things are going to get very interesting in the weeks to come.... Obama is in a dangerous panic mode at the moment and is calling in his "truth team"....







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