TS Isaac Watch RNC Convention Thread

As a Floridian living a few miles from where the RNC convention will be held, I thought tonight might be a good time to create a clearing house thread to discuss the storm and its potential impact on the convention. I will do my part for this to be apolitical.

The current NHC 11PM EDT track has it passing just off the east of the Pinellas County coast.
Isaac Track 11PM Wednesday

For those who do not know, when people discuss Tampa as a region, they really are referring to Tampa/Clearwater/St. Petersburg. The "A" location on this map link below is where the convention is being held. All three cites lie next to each other. Tampa does not actually sit on the Gulf coast, but rather on Old Tampa Bay to its south and west and Hillsborough Bay to its SE and east, Both are fed by the Gulf just a few miles to its south. Tampa is in Hillsborough County. Clearwater and St. Pete are in Pinellas County and comprise an area that includes the Bay on their east coasts and the Gulf on their west borders. Pinellas County is a peninsula, with St. Pete at the southern tip and Clearwater being just above it. Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater map

Due to the geography of the Bay, any storm surge from an offshore storm drives water up into Tampa and Hillsborough Bays, where it piles onto land for all three cities. This makes storm surge here a big deal as there is no high ground, save for a ridge that actually runs north/south in central Pinellas county between the Gulf and the Bay, going north many miles. Short of that, everywhere is but a few feet above sea level in the proximity of where the convention will be held.

If the storm is a category one, chances are they won't postpone the convention, due to a small expected surge. But even then, we would expect significant street flooding that will make getting around impossible in some areas (like the exact spot where I live).

But we are still days away, so the current track will change some. They've been pretty good these past few years calling both the strength and track of named storms though.

It does look though like it will cross the meat of the Blue Mountains in Jamaica (beautiful..I've been there), which will weaken it, at least until it gets into the Gulf. It will also go over mountains in Cuba. But the good news is that will reduce its time to build up steam. Then again, if its current track stays true, it will skirt to the west of the coast versus riding up the coast, meaning it could build and/or stay strong instead of weakening by partially tracking over land.

The 11PM update showed a tiny drop in pressure to 1003, but no wind speed change. Satellite does show it getting better organized though.

I'll post more tomorrow. I look forward to apolitical contributions.

6:30 AM here in FL an not much has changed overnight. The path continues to be the same, though it appears to have slowed just a bit and put it due west of the area (about 50 miles offshore) Tuesday morning around 8AM. It is much better to have a storm hit in the light of day, though we will feel the effects long before then, with outer bands creating rain squalls and thunderstorms by Monday evening. The distance from the eye will keep us (at this point), away from the strongest winds, but the worry here will be the surge and the path is bad for us on that front.

Still, not a big deal if only a cat 1 and the convention won't postpone over those conditions I do not think.

Originally posted by pajoly
6:30 AM here in FL an not much has changed overnight. The path continues to be the same, though it appears to have slowed just a bit and put it due west of the area (about 50 miles offshore) Tuesday morning around 8AM. It is much better to have a storm hit in the light of day, though we will feel the effects long before then, with outer bands creating rain squalls and thunderstorms by Monday evening. The distance from the eye will keep us (at this point), away from the strongest winds, but the worry here will be the surge and the path is bad for us on that front.

Still, not a big deal if only a cat 1 and the convention won't postpone over those conditions I do not think.

Always go to Fox News for the best information.

Tropical Storm Isaac will be close enough to give plenty of rain and wind gusts to

Joe Biden and his trouble making trolls in the parking lot. They will be blown away

by Tropical Storm Isaac.

----------
The Republican Convention will proceed with great fanfare !

- Welcome to the White House -- President Mitt Romney !



God is on our side. Look at the track! We couldn't ask for a better path for the storm.

The 45 MPH gusts will blow the OWS umbrellas off to Georgia !

I can already see Joe Biden standing there like a wet rat holding his microphone!

reply to post by pajoly

Pajoly, since you are in the area I have a question.

I've read on the Weather Underground's blog that the site of the RNC is in a Category 1 evacuation zone. Do you know if that is for a direct hit or even if this storm skirts off the coast the evacuation would still apply?

I'm really hoping this storm takes a hard turn to the east or loses strength.

Blog post I referenced:

Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention.

www.wunderground.com

This is looking like Isaac will be a non issue for us here in the Tampa region and those attending the RNC. That's expected though by those who live here because we know hurricanes hitting this region are extremely rare. In this case, it looks like it will stay well offshore. I am guessing we might get a very minor surge and some tropical depression strength winds, which is nothing.

But if you live in coastal MS or AL, you'd better gas up those generators and start putting up the boards. If this thing stays over open water its whole transit north through the Gulf, it could become a whopper.

Per the 8/24/12 2PM EDT advisory update and the few previously, it looks like the trend for Isaac is a slight movement towards the coast once it hits the Gulf.
Earlier it looked to be tracking towards the MS or western AL Gulf coast, but the models have moved landfall to the each, closer to Pensacola.

This will increase the chance for some storm surge in the Tampa area and definitely higher winds if the path continues to inch it closer to the coast. At this rate, the center might pass within 75 miles of the coast, close enough to have TS force winds if the storm achieves hurricane status by then.

With each day, the models give us more certainty and tomorrow we get within about 3 days out, so we'll pretty well know by late tomorrow what we should be in for.

Stay tuned.

reply to post by Eurisko2012


Like I said in the opening post, I'd like to keep politics out of this thread. I am gritting my teeth here. Please do me the favor and respect the purpose of thread. We both have plenty of threads to get political, this is not the place for it.

Mods, if you'd be so kind as to kill posts here -- like this one -- that try to bait the thread into politics it'd be much appreciated.

I live right where the now-Tropical-Storm Isaac but soon-to-he-Hurricane Isaac is expected to make landfall. I have lived here all of my 42 years - through many of the "big ones". Therefore, I haven't been too especially concerned about the landfall and wind damage of - what was expected to be a Category 1 Hurricane - making a direct hit on this area.

Of course, I am moderately concerned about what might wash up / in from the Gulf as the BP spill was just a mere 2 years ago. In Ivan - and Erin and Opal before that - there were things washing ashore that were estimated to be several years old. As in wreckage of boats known to have sunk over 10 years prior. Thus, I am sure any direct hit storm is going to bring things ashore we don't want to see. Already, many around here are having weird physical symptoms that are sinus-related AND there seems to be an epidemic of "non-visible" biting bugs that seem to be a genetic mutant of "no see-ums" of the past on steroids. You still can't "see um" but their bite is about 10 times worse, itches immensely, and create a swelling/bit mark like a mosquito. My Dad is 66 - lived here forever - and says he has never seen anything like it. People (usually non-conspiracy type) are blaming this on everything from the climate change (short winters that don't kill off the eggs of larger bugs) to biological "entities" created to "eat" the oil that have now moved inland (reminiscent of "Synth-ia"). But I digress...

The point being that although I am not too excited about more "stuff" from the deep Gulf being blown and washed in, I haven't been concerned at all about this storm from a physical damage perspective. Especially since it was only supposed to be a "1" at landfall.

Yet, today things seemed to have changed a bit. Now, Isaac is strengthening and better organizing. Newest estimates have it hitting here at 120 mph or a Cat 3. Still not overly concerning (again from a damage perspective) but a tad more worrisome.

However, since this is a conspiracy forum and this being 2012 and all, I am curious that there haven't been any "conspiracy-related" threads regarding Isaac other than this one and the proximity to the RNC (although, it now appears it will miss that area for the most part).

Not that I typically put too much stock into this particular idea but I am curious - does this date / time (next week/Wednesday) coincide with any ancient predictions / calendars / etc regarding the Florida coastline? This should perhaps be a different thread and if so, I apologize for derailing but I can't start a new thread yet because I am mostly a "lurker" here (for a couple of years) and don't post often. It is just that - being in this area and in the direct line of "fire" - I am a little curious if the proximity of the storm to the RNC (which IS the subject of this thread) is the only question about this storm "conspiracy-wise" in most people's minds?

*The Air Force called in all active duty today and are flying out planes, etc. Nothing really out of the ordinary for a Hurricane coming but usually a pretty good indicator that they do expect landfall here. If HAARP truly exists for weather modification, you would think they would steer these storms away from areas where there is literally billions of dollars in aeronautics, defense, and aerospace equipment and technology.

reply to post by OneisOne


HI! I know you weren't asking me but I have been through these in the now-projected-landfall area for 42 years. Also fascinated with weather and actually studied/majored to be a "weather girl" (BA Broadcast Journalism / Minor Meteorology).

Latest is actually showing that it will not cross the peninsula and rather will head up to the border of FL / AL over to Panama City. However, Tampa area will be on the right side of the storm as it moves up so it will likely get some strong wind / rain but nothing like landfall in my experience. Thus, I don't think they would do any mandatory evacuations there unless Isaac intensifies and better organizes to a greater extent than it is and is projected. Perhaps DIRECTLY on the Gulf but I doubt it the way things are looking now.

reply to post by nicevillegrl


Here in Clearwater/Tampa/St. Pete we appear free from any real risk. We'll get squalls from feeder bands, maybe some small isolated tornadoes, a bot of surge and a lot of rain. We'll probably see some big gusts, but nothing much sustained beyond about 25/30 mph (guess...I'm no meteorologist).

It is definitely headed your way and if you've watched the updates, each of the last 5 or so have edged it a bit further east for Isaac's landfall. I agree a Cat 1 is no big deal -- some coastal erosion, localized street flooding. What has more worried for you here is that the Gulf waters are very warm (90 degree'ish) and Isaac will have a long time over the warmest waters (closest to the coast). It would not surprise me if this this blew up in the last few hours before landfall to a monster storm.

reply to post by pajoly


Tropical Storm Isaac is no longer a threat to Tampa Bay, Florida.

- Direct hit New Orleans, LA.

Time to close the thread.