Russia may evacuate Syrian base, says Navy chief

Originally posted by Xcathdra
Im not surpruised at all to see this. Its a signal, in my opinion, to Assad, that Russia is not going to get involved should a conflict occur.

They were never going to get directly involved, and have made it clear that they would not. But I think you knew that. Russia's approach to international issues and conflicts is fairly pragmatic and predictable. It has not, and will not intervene directly in any conflict where its own territory or that of its closest allies is not in danger. Syria is nowhere near being a "closest ally" - there would be limited solely to Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan.

What I think is more relevant when it comes to Syria, is how Russia can intervene "indirectly" - meaning not involving its own military assets or personel. This can mean exercising influence in international forums (UN), supplying arms and intelligence, or pulling strings elsewhere in the world to test US/NATO's resolve.

Originally posted by Xcathdra
Its been stated many times that Russia is not going to risk their own interests in order to protect Syria. While it requires Putins approval the fact a senior Russian military officer has suggested this possibility tells me its something Putin knows about and has been briefed on.

The Naval chief is not going to make a comment of that magnitude on his own without approval.

Well, you don't know Russian armed forces commanders very well. Many of them are fairly reckless in running their mouth, especially since the military conduct is not nearly as strict as it was in Soviet times. They will be reprimanded only if what they say significantly contradicts the boss's intent or hurts his image. In this case Kremlin may have considered the comments not to be too off-base. Russia doesn't mind if its intentions and resolve appear more aggresive than they really are. But US and NATO know the game well enough not to pay attention to attention-seeking officers.

Russia is not the main reason why US has not yet intervened in Syria. US, Israel, and a number of other countries like Assad and Syria exactly where they are at right now - mired in an internal conflict without an end in sight. It keeps Assad busy, and keeps him away from the international arena and the militant factions he had ties with. It keeps Iran concerned. And nobody really minds the herd being thinned a bit - including all sides involved in the fighting. Despite what it may seem like, Syria is in a stable position right now - a stalemate with each punch-drunk side becoming weaker. US could take some risks with stability in Libya, but Syria is a more serious matter. US and some of its allies are not very happy about how Egypt turned out.


Also, the Syrian rebels will not attack the Russian base. That will not get them anything of value.

Originally posted by CALGARIAN
Soon as they leave, US/Turkey/Israel are going in.

And why are they going in exactly? To topple Assad and hope the next regime will be on their leash? Yeah - that's not happening. Majority of the rebel elements fighting against Assad are not particularly interested in siding with either US/Turkey/Israel. Even if they receive aid now, you can be assured they will go their separate ways after the conflict is done. To really ensure that Syria becomes pro-US, you would have to send tens of thousands of ground forces for the long-term.

Israel most definitely is not going in. They are not touching this sh*tpile with a long stick, if they know what's good for them, and they most certainly do.

US? Libya was a happy-go-lucky PR play with little at stake. The level of unpredictability in Syria should the rebels totally prevail poses a risk the US can't ignore. This will have a far more significant regional impact. US will tread lightly here, even if it talks a big game.

Turkey? They have had a few bolts come loose in their thinking cap lately, with actions that are less thought-out than they should have been. Even so, they can't pull this one off by themselves, and if they try they just might get very embarassed. Again, I think cooler heads will prevail. Turkey is just peacocking here in front of US and NATO. It is entertaining to watch from the outside.



And if you think Russia's presence in the Sea port is the main reason preventing US or anyone else from getting involved, you are mistaken. They are in the quietest part of Syria, with no major fighting or concentration of Syrian forces. US could take out Assad and his main forces without coming anywhere near the Russian contingent.