Now Part 1 has been focused on the physical effects of nuclear detonations and how, by that alone, the result would be self defeating to the extent that even making them with this theater as the only reasonable target is a waste.
Given the dedication of resources and sheer cost for any nation pursuing them in this day and age, it's absolutely not worth it for a single target area which the above considerations would turn any "victory" into a defeat within the same moment of time. To whatever extent those in Iran might accept the destruction of certain sites on those lands, I dare say the other Billion plus Muslims would have a few things to say about it, at the very least.
Again, we've only looked at the effects in what would be INTENDED and if everything goes WELL....and finally, no one considers the rest of what it would mean.
Part 2: The Political Realities Of Rash Actions
* - Israeli Arabs/Muslims
Now this concern comes in two forms and it's refering back to the graphics for the map I created with population numbers added. Israel is not just Jews and it's not just Palestinians. There are a large number of Israeli Arabs. As little as this is mentioned in Western media, they live in Israel, hold Israeli citizenship and live very productive lives.
These aren't Palestinians with work permits but full fledged citizens who are also Arab and Muslim. The source I used placed the number at 16.9% of the overall Israeli population and some Israeli sources claimed 25%.
Either way, it's a large number of Arabs to incinerate in a nuclear first strike. Those are just the Arabs living inside Israel itself.
* - Palestinians and Neighbors
There are over 4 million more in the Territories and a large number beyond them in Jordan and Southern Syria. Iran would outright kill, sicken or seriously injure almost every single one of those people. Again, my map and plenty others online show the true confines of the area being talked about. A few nukes....literally a FEW....and Israel is simply covered within the effect areas.
I'm not buying the idea that the Ayatollah would do that. This isn't Saddam Insane off on a bender. The Ayatollah is someone I don't personally like...on any level..whatsoever. I never forgot 1979...and that's that. I'll never forgive 1983, either.
Having said that though, he's the direct leader of the Shia sect of the Islamic Faith. It's akin to the Pope, as a Shia explained in terms I'd culturally relate to. The Muslim version of the Pope, as we'd think of it, wouldn't likely act so quickly without carefully considering all the angles...for lack of a better word.
So...Someone in that position would so easily Obliterate...
- The Jews (okay..I'll buy that one..maybe ),
- The Israeli Arabs (ehh...okay?),
- The Palestinians along with Hamas and Hezbollah (Okay, now we're getting silly),
- Finally a fair chunk of the populations of Jordan, Syria and maybe Iraq and Egypt...depending on quirks of the weather patterns?
Are the people saying this feeling alright? Perhaps they're suffering a fever? It seems so absurd when looked at in clear light, doesn't it?
Nope... I'm not buying it a bit. Iran simply has everything to lose and nothing to gain. Politically, as this part is dealing with, it's 100% downside. Even if they hold their own and survive the war, their nation will be in shambles...