While everybody is looking at the ME, they are only glancing at Europe. A real possible path to WW3

reply to post by TDawgRex

The EU is a coalition of Governments who agreed to adopt a common currency. This is known.

Incorrect.

The EU started out as a small economic joint effort, the major one of those being called "European Economic Community". The base of this was to allow economic groups or countries that wished to exchange economically, to do so in a faster and less expensive way. At the time, borders were closed, and doing economical exchanges was very expensive, just because of the time spent at the borders.

Not only that, but certain markets were closed to foreign intervention, meaning, some economies couldn't sell their products in other countries, even if they wished to do so.

These treaties facilitated that.

A lot more measures were implemented before it was even called "European Union" in 1993. The most notorious one being the free pass policy, allowing people from any EU member to freely travel inside Europe, either for tourism purposes, or business.

The currency is just part of that mentality of cooperation.

But the EU is also currently facing austerity measures which much of the populace does not want.

Some countries in the EU are enforcing austerity measures, but not all. Germany isn't, for instance.

And those measures, although debated, confronted and manifested against, are still considered to be necessary. There is a large consensus that a lot of european countries were living above what they could afford, mostly due to funds coming from the central european bank.

This austerity measures are nothing more than cut backs in spending, so that budgets and debts can be balanced once again.

They've been talking about kicking the PIIGS to the curb unless they get their spending under control.

What are PIIGS? Pigs as in pig, the animal?

And the austerity measures, like I stated, is exactly that. Spending control. The fact remains that countries were spending more than they could produce.

To the best of my knowledge, only Ireland has been able to do so.

Yes, but Spain, Portugal, France and Italy are following that same path. Greece seems to be the only one with a refusal to accept the reality they need to cut a lot before getting better.

Once a coalition starts eliminating members, it is a house of cards.

Greece has been under threat for years, and they haven't left yet. The talks currently are set around the possibility of Greece dropping the Euro, but the currency, not the European Union treaty.

The UK doesn't use the Euro, for instance. It's not impossible for Greece to achieve the same. For the Euro work as a strong currency, it can be tainted by weak economies like the Greek. That's why there is mention to the possibility of Greece dropping the Euro. But again, it's the currency, not the actual Union.

And yes, the EU is linked to NATO. I believe that we have come to a point that if the EU disolves, then so does NATO. Maybe to be replaced with new treaties.

No it isn't.

NATO was established in 1949 with the intent to form a military coalition between all members. The philosophy behind it was a mutual agreement between all members to form a defense in case any of them were attacked. This was at a time where the attacks on Poland by the Nazi, and the siege on Great Britain was still in everyone's memory.

Basically, all countries that survived WW2 wished to have a protocol that would prevent the events that unfolded in at the "birth" of WW2.

The European Union has nothing to do with it, apart from the fact both treaties relate to European countries.

NATO is worldwide, focused on the Atlantic and Europe, a new defensive front for the U.S., and a defense mechanism for european nations.

EU is european only, and it's focused on economical and governmental measures and treaties, with the objective of making Europe a stronger collective economy. Most european countries cannot compete with other economies like the american or asian. But a EU can.

And although EU is becoming more connected and gaining political strength, it still has no power over individual nations, other than economically speaking.

Bosnia is now a EU mission, not NATO.

It's both, actually. EU wants to enforce economic growth and enable political stability, and NATO keeps the defensive posture and military presence.

NATO is still there, and I think will be for a long time.

If the EU fails, then so does that mission.

It wouldn't be the first time, and not the last. But Europe won't end because of it.

Just like the Afghanistan mission is actualy more NATO, rather than ISAF. If NATO were to fall apart, the US could not shoulder it alone.

Afghanistan mission is all U.S., while resorting to NATO for support. The vast majority is/was american, from what I know.

reply to post by Slave NO MORE


Bless you for thinking of others.

Unfortunately, there are to few of you out there.

Most people think of what is happening to them personnally in their world.

I wish that were more like you.

But we all do what we can, don't we?

Originally posted by TDawgRex
Greece? Italy? France? Do you read the news?
The world is driven by economies, not happy feelings. People are Peeved and are letting their feelings be known.
I think that this is just the beginning.

There is a difference between people being “peeved” and the subsequent collapse of European civilisation. It just does not work like that.

As ThisIsNotReality states, you would find the various European militaries incapable of doing anything against their fellow countrymen. It just does not work like that.

European nations are not like China or Iran where the military is an extension of politics. In Europe, nation states have a clear separation of the militaries from the political executive.

Regards

reply to post by TDawgRex

I've seen it on a micro-level. But I think that if Gov'ts (especially first tier types) pull back, then choas will eventually ensue.

The bigger economies benefit from the EU treaties. It would make no sense to leave the EU because of weaker countries. If they haven't done that with such a economic nightmare like Greece, they won't do it with anyone else. Much less leave a Union that solidifies and gives strength to their own economies.

Deutschland owes no debt to France, Italy etc, when they are thinking about their own people. I think that once one is either kicked out of the EU or pulls out on their own, that house will collapse.

If Germany does such a thing, they will cut their own throats.

People might have a bad memory, but germans can't forget who aided them into getting back into a sounding economy. Who provided humanitarian aid, and who made political pressures to bring down that nasty thing called the Berlin Wall.

They won't pull out because they feed on the EU, and they won't get kicked out because they are one of the strongest economies.

A long time ago I said to my friends that the Euro would fail. It seems it is.

That's your opinion. Contradicted by a lot of political and economical realities.

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by paraphi

 

Greece? Italy? France? Do you read the news?

The world is driven by economies, not happy feelings. People are Peeved and are letting their feelings be known.

I think that this is just the beginning.

See, this is where you are wrong. Yes, the world is driven by economy, but not economy as we know it now.

You know what really keeps this world turning? The people in it, not some (by now) fake economy that allows some people to make big money by scamming others.

"An economy consists of the economic systems of a country or other area; the labor, capital, and land resources; and the manufacturing, production, trade, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of that area."

Labor, resources, consumption,... are what make the economy, not trading and money and...

People will always grow food, people will always build things and people will always consume. The economy as we know it now can disappear, and I hope it will, but this does not simply mean disaster ensues. Perhaps it will in the more densely inhabited cities, but in others, people will simply continue doing what they did before the presumed collapse, they will not lose their hands and legs, nor will they lose their appetite.

We have all been led to believe that the economy in it's current shape is an essential in our everyday lives, while it is not. Without it, a lot of things would have to change, I agree, but nothing man can not overcome, like I said before, as long as we have hands and an appetite, we will continue to produce and consume, although be it different than how we currently go about doing things.

So no, the world does not turn thanks to happy feelings, and it doesn't need to either (though I wish it did, and it should, but we're not there yet)

reply to post by GarrusVasNormandy


NATO invoked Article V of the NATO treaty, which made Afghanistan a NATO mission. The US may shoulder the majority of the Manpower and financial burden, but it is still a NATO mission, which without, the US could not continue. Mainly due to finances, not manpower.

And that leads us full circle don't it? If the EEU collapses, it will drag down many with it and history has shown us that during times like these...war is not far behind.

Tell me, what would the average citizen, regardless of ethnicity or religion do when all government services in todays age are cut off and they are left to fend for themselves?

I think that they would do the human thing and revolt.

It could happen in any of the four major players. The US, Europe, Russia and China. The end result will be the same as posited in my scenario.

But that's just my opinion....heck, I could be wrong.

Originally posted by paraphi

Originally posted by TDawgRex
Greece? Italy? France? Do you read the news?
The world is driven by economies, not happy feelings. People are Peeved and are letting their feelings be known.
I think that this is just the beginning.

There is a difference between people being “peeved” and the subsequent collapse of European civilisation. It just does not work like that.

As ThisIsNotReality states, you would find the various European militaries incapable of doing anything against their fellow countrymen. It just does not work like that.

European nations are not like China or Iran where the military is an extension of politics. In Europe, nation states have a clear separation of the militaries from the political executive.

Regards

That makes me breath a bit easier...but I'm still somewhat nervous.

reply to post by TDawgRex

NATO invoked Article V of the NATO treaty, which made Afghanistan a NATO mission.

That's incorrect.

NATO had a cooperation treaty with Afghanistan. It was actually Afghanistan that requested the presence of NATO.

This was set in 2001 under the Bonn Agreement.

Determined to end the tragic conflict in Afghanistan and promote national reconciliation, lasting peace, stability and respect for human rights in the country,

Reaffirming the independence, national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan,

Acknowledging the right of the people of Afghanistan to freely determine their own political future in accordance with the principles of Islam, democracy, pluralism and social justice,

This has nothing to do with Article 5.

NATO, represented in Afghanistan as ISAF is acting under a U.N. resolution, like I previously stated. They are not there under anything related to Article 5, nor a threat to any NATO member.

NATO is in Afghanistan at the express wish of the democratically elected government of Afghanistan and is widely supported by the Afghan population. The Bonn Agreement of 5 December 2001 requested the United Nations to authorise the development of a security force to assist in maintaining security in Kabul and its surrounding areas. On 20 December 2001, the UN Security Council approved the first resolution 1386 authorizing the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

Source

The US may shoulder the majority of the Manpower and financial burden, but it is still a NATO mission, which without, the US could not continue.

Like I said, it was a political issue raised by the U.S. at the U.N., which then resorted to NATO support. That's a very different thing than stating it's all NATO, or that NATO by itself decided to intervene.

If the EEU collapses, it will drag down many with it and history has shown us that during times like these...war is not far behind.

Again, it's a very hard thing to imagine EU collapsing. You are talking about decades of treaties, decades of cooperation, and decades of establishing institutions, organizations and funds that work in favor of all Europe, and not for the EU as a concept.

But even so, going down your line of thought, it's very unlikely that chaos would emerge. Possibly a economical contraption in all members, but many people also argue that if EU ends by mutual agreement, most weak countries will be able to recover on their own, because they won't be tied down to EU rules or laws in their economies, like the quota-system, as an example.

While you argue that EU is doomed to fail, and it doesn't seem like that, even if it does fail, it might be not as bad as people are painting it to be.

Tell me, what would the average citizen, regardless of ethnicity or religion do when all government services in todays age are cut off and they are left to fend for themselves?

I don't know. But it isn't the EU who assures that. It's the national, local governments.

Those can work with or without EU. They have done so before the 80's (when EU became more powerful), and can do it long after.

I think that they would do the human thing and revolt.

Revolt against what? Against whom?

If the EU would collapse, and the national situations would aggravate, people would provably gather around to gain support, supplies and get their country back together. Why would they revolt if they are the ones with the best interest in keeping order?

Iceland comes to mind.

Originally posted by ThisIsNotReality

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by paraphi

 

Labor, resources, consumption,... are what make the economy, not trading and money and...

If the economy collapses, then trading will be paramount.

Just a quick simple analogy; You have crops which I can eat, I have bullets with which you need to hunt or defend, let's trade services. Trading will be come the way of life in a worst case scenario.

Those without the skills had best learn quickly.

Originally posted by TDawgRex

I don’t see another Hitler looming in our future, but rather a more charismatic figure who can make others think along his/her lines of thought.

I prefer Jesus.

Originally posted by ThisIsNotReality

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by paraphi

 

Labor, resources, consumption,... are what make the economy, not trading and money and...

If the economy collapses, then trading will be paramount.

Just a quick simple analogy; You have crops which I can eat, I have bullets with which you need to hunt or defend, let's trade services. Trading will be come the way of life in a worst case scenario.

Those without the skills had best learn quickly.

Well, yes, that was the point I was trying to make People have been doing so for thousands of years without what we now know as "the economy", it all worked perfectly fine (it had it's flaws, sure), till some people came up with clever schemes to make more money off of products that were worth less, etc etc etc

This system, imo, has to end, sooner rather than later, because the longer it takes, the worse it will be eventually.

Besides, if you don't possess skills now, you can always learn, and are not to blame either. Education and society have transformed in a way where it is almost a bad or crazy thing to be self-sustaining, knowing how to care for yourself instead of depending on others, etc... You can't really blame people for listening to this manipulation, people are people, herd mentality, etc. It's blatantly obvious that being on facebook 24/7 is way cooler than knowing how to grow vegetables, but we have ALL been in that position, where what we thought we knew, turned out to be a hilarious delusion. I used to look at gardening as "yuck" and "who wants to do something like that"... Till I started thinking about it in an unbiased way; what is more important? What is more satisfying?

And as I said earlier; you can always learn Didn't take me that long to get into gardening and it wont take me long to get into anything else either, a big gift of being human is intellect And no matter how retarded a persons may seem to be, once you peel away the (socially fabricated) layers of the onion, they will be an equally interesting and deep person as you yourself are. Don't think the hipsters etc of this planet are what you perceive them to be, I can look back into my own past and see a person that would now, to me, seem like someone who doesn't have a clue, etc... but people can change, and they do

reply to post by GarrusVasNormandy


Now this is what I love about ATS. You are making me think beyond my borders.

But currencies have collapsed before…and they will again. Usually war follows. Trust me on this, I do no not want to see a wide scale WW3 as it make the others miniscule by comparison. Once again, just my opinion.

Granted, the EU is facing some tough times economically, just like the US. Some tough calls need to be made, by both sides of the pond.

The thing is, can they sell it to the people? I don’t think they can, if only for the reason is that most people think along the lines on an emotional level, rather than a rational level.

The point I am trying to make is that I understand the EU is a economic treaty, but how would the individual governments react to the collapse of the Euro dollar? At that point, as you’ve pointed out, it is on a individual national level.

Originally posted by mideast

Originally posted by TDawgRex

I don’t see another Hitler looming in our future, but rather a more charismatic figure who can make others think along his/her lines of thought.

I prefer Jesus.

I prefer...Me.

I am probably one of the most mellow people you would ever meet. But can be quite ruthless if need be. Though I would prefer not to be. Others must force my hand.

I would like people to just live their lives and deal with the decisions they made. No bailouts, no protection. Just family and friends to fall back on. I know it's a pipe dream though.

If I ever ran for political office, my slogan would be, "Common sense for the Common people."

Sometimes I wonder if WW3 is needed to return us to that philosophy.

reply to post by TDawgRex

Now this is what I love about ATS. You are making me think beyond my borders.

That's the main reason why I joined ATS. It's mutual.

But currencies have collapsed before…and they will again. Usually war follows.

Yes, but currency falling is one part of the equation, I think. It might be a sign, but it's usually associated with a lot more factors.

For instance, although the economy in Germany was one of the reasons for the rise of Hitler, that same economic situation wasn't caused by currency. It was due to sanctions and measures put in place by other countries after WW1.

Trust me on this, I do no not want to see a wide scale WW3 as it make the others miniscule by comparison. Once again, just my opinion.

Me too. As much as I devour Armageddon and post-apocalyptic literature, I can't help to feel the bittersweet taste in my mouth left by the thought of "I hope this sh... never happens.".

Granted, the EU is facing some tough times economically, just like the US. Some tough calls need to be made, by both sides of the pond.

The thing is, can they sell it to the people? I don’t think they can, if only for the reason is that most people think along the lines on an emotional level, rather than a rational level.

You actually nailed the reason for the protests you see in Europe.

People aren't angry at the decisions. They are angry because they trusted government after government, and they bragged about certain accomplishments. But what people are realizing now, is that it was mostly a farce. That the economic gain only sustained a few, and that the decisions made are actually hurting more than bringing growth.

But, despite all that, there is still a core of people who will eventually inspire the rest, and make everyone realize, that as much as it is painful to see countries fall so badly, it is necessary.

Europe needs to cut spending before it is able to re-grow again. And that pisses people off.

Most people often find despair in these situations, but I usually seek hope by reason.

For instance, I look at Germany from the outside, and I see hope. Germany had a terrible character as their leader, they did what everyone with a history class knows, and look at them now. Again.

They fell with WW1, risen back from the ashes, and fell down again. They were divided in two by decades, falling apart into two super-powers control. Yet, just a couple of decades after the Berlin Wall fell, they are the strongest economy in Europe.

That shows that there is always a light at the end of the tunnel, as dark as our future might seem.

The point I am trying to make is that I understand the EU is a economic treaty, but how would the individual governments react to the collapse of the Euro dollar?

They would go back to their economic models before they joined EU, possibly.

All of them would go back to their national currency that was left behind. Which is not necessarily a bad thing, because a lot of european countries still have gold reserves.

The nationalistic and separate path would emerge again, and countries would think for them-selfs, act on them-selfs and make decisions based on their own health and wealth. Again, that isn't a bad thing. That would mean countries could negotiate better and more freely, which sounds stupid since EU was supposed to facilitate that.

The EU can only work if every part involved is in good health, and with a good economy. If one is down, it will just drag the rest. Not to a collapse point, but it will always be a burden.

Now, that hasn't happened at all with this EU model. Greece and other southern countries are proof of that. But ironically, it can get better if the EU breaks apart politically.

Something along the lines of a married couple. If a couple is in bad finance shape, and one is making an income and the other isn't, that's a burden that neither can keep up. But if they separate and each produces his own income, they are better separated than together.

Same logic applies, I believe.

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by ElohimJD

 

No offense, but the only way I can see the United States of Europe as a feasible outcome is if they all speak the same language in the Business, Aviation and Governmental sense.

Chances are, that would be English, which I don't think would play out so well with the average citizen. (Even though the majority of Europeans speak english better than than the average American

)

www.presseurop.eu...

You don't have to "see" it yet, but it is going to happen, the foundation already exists, it is just waiting for the "void" to be created at the fall of the USA economy.

God Bless,

Originally posted by Slave NO MORE
reply to post by beezzer

 

I agree that there should be more then that. But i see it as a basic right for everyone on this planet.

Did u know that there are 5,6 million children dying a year due to hunger? If you think about it, one of these children could be a inventor that brings global peace. Or take us a possibility to time/spacetravel or what ever magificent that still has to come. Because most of them are from the 3d world that doesn't mean that they are dumb. They just don't get a chance to be part in our evolution. Most dog and cat pets have better life then these children. It's insane the way the world is we live in. It's really the time to unite as a specie after all these years of struggle, diversion and wars on this planet. Only by uniting we can evolve.

When 2 persons do the same work they should have the same income. Take for example a webdesigner in Europe and a webdesigner in China. Both do the same but yet the European get's more purchasing power then the Chinese person. that's unfair.

[Edit]
Something off topic but can someone tell me up from how many posts i'm able to flag a thread?
[/Edit]

edit on 14-8-2012 by Slave NO MORE because: Offtopic question

As draconian as it may sound to you:

Those 5.6 million kids dying a year, well once they hit breeding age (what 12 or so?) then they can only stop breeding long enough to hold out the hand to collect another hand out. Then right back to breeding.

If after 4000 years, groups of people can not grow a crop or raise livestock, then they need the plug pulled on them.

Haiti would be a good example, or most places in Africa.

Time to pull the plug on this BS, the world will be a better place, it may even start to heal somewhat.


War is option #2


Oh BTW, just saying.

Slightly OT, but following recent discussions I;ve had with a number of extreme Scottish nationalists, I'm getting the impression that if they get their way, Scotland will be the new North Korea. No-one can criticise them, all their problems were caused by their southern neighbours, everything will become absolutely fine, and we are not interested in any one else's opinions ......

Originally posted by AndyMayhew
Slightly OT, but following recent discussions I;ve had with a number of extreme Scottish nationalists, I'm getting the impression that if they get their way, Scotland will be the new North Korea. No-one can criticise them, all their problems were caused by their southern neighbours, everything will become absolutely fine, and we are not interested in any one else's opinions ......

edit on 14-8-2012 by AndyMayhew because: (no reason given)

Being of Scottish descent, this makes me sad, but I don't see them as the next NK. But they are smart, just like the rest of the world.

I'm hoping they work things out. For the betterment of everyone involved.

Originally posted by ElohimJD

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by ElohimJD

 

No offense, but the only way I can see the United States of Europe as a feasible outcome is if they all speak the same language in the Business, Aviation and Governmental sense.

Chances are, that would be English, which I don't think would play out so well with the average citizen. (Even though the majority of Europeans speak english better than than the average American

)

www.presseurop.eu...

You don't have to "see" it yet, but it is going to happen, the foundation already exists, it is just waiting for the "void" to be created at the fall of the USA economy.

God Bless,

But I think it will be the fall of the EU economy first, followed by the rest. The void will be filled by war in my opinion.

Where are we then?

By The way, that article sounds a lot like the beginnings of the NWO.

Shouldnt this be in the prophecy section, since it appears to be pure speculation?

I mean, nothing at all indicates a European conflict in the near future, quite the opposite, everything points to the Middle East.