It was theory, now reality: Israel pondering on attack Iran this fall

My brother in-laws father who is a civil engineer from Iran shared his take on the situation with me.

We have Iran a nation that has wealth like no tomorrow in the ground, a nation that does not like having there economy dictated by the useless amerikan green back, as far as trade of there oil. A nation that if left to prosper could and most likely would be one of the next great economic superpowers if left to flurish.

97% of Iran power generation is through thermal and oil power plants with 3% being hydro power, that being said if Iran was to go completely Nuclear as far as power generation, that would leave them to be free to use the now available oil and gas on the open market thus increasing there GDP even further. Thats what my brother in-laws father feels TPTB fear the most, they fear Iran being able to further increase there hold on the price of oil worldwide and throwing a huge roadblock down for all those who currently own the global trade.

He feels this isn't about national security, or nuclear weapons, because as he said only nation ever stupid enough to use them, is and will most likely always be, the United states of Amerika. Sure he agrees that the theocracy that runs Iran is at best ape s*** crazy but not crazy enough to annihilate there entire population.

His best guess is the Nukes are just the purple elephant again the pre-curser to the occupation to lock down the economy and keep us ever enslaved. And you know what, I take what he says, and see the light in it.

If Iran was to produce power without using there fossil fuels, gain the ability to sell all fuels extracted, not have to use them for domestic power production. It would be a windfall for there government that before sanctions, took in $47 billion dollars in oil revenue accounting for roughly 50% of its economy.

So in closing my personal opinion is this is more to hold their nation down, and protect the economic investments of those who control all our assets and way of life. They fear a strong Iran on the world stage due to the fact they could make moves that shatter the flow of money to the greedys pockets. They fear a populace that if left alone would succeed and be a becon for how power should be distributed, and how wealth should be accumulated with the resources a country has.

Just my take from a fairly intelligent Iranian fellow who is worried sick for his family and friends back there, due to all the crap coming from the whitehouse, and isreals talking heads.....

SaneThinking

Those of you calling the IDF a "pityful" little mitlitary want to explain to me why the IDF virtually alone (yes we supply weapons and ammo) sent the combined Arab armies packing all the way back home in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and in major skirmishes with Syria in 80 to 83? How they have successfully bombed both Iran and Syria's nuclear programs in 80 and 07. How they have prevented being overrun by Syria, Egypt, Iraq at the same time, mulitple times. When Isreal in places is less than 50 miles across??

3 Reasons...
1) The IDF is one of the most professional forces in the world.
2) Yes they get support from the US.
3) God is on their side. You can dispute, argue, whine, bitch, moan, debate, and refute all you want...doesn't really change that fact...well belief..I take it as fact, I realize many here don't.

Oh, and 4...really the better part of most Arab armies pretty much are incapable of doing much of anything but having parades and whipping up on unarmed masses.

An item RARELY talked about in the Arab world is "why hasn't Allah allowed us to beat the Hebrews, is he not on our side"......no, HE isn't.

reply to post by SaneThinking



I don't completely agree with you, but at the same time you could be entirely right.
But whether your economic hypothesis is the case, or that the Iranian leadership is crazy and wants nukes to usher in Mahdi is almost a moot point now. Some sort of war will likely happen.

reply to post by SrWingCommander


As I said it's one mans take maybe he's biased being from there, and speaking purely out of fear for his friends and family. But I can say for a fact he would not be one to side with there government being of Bahá'í Faith not exactely like life there was easy for them. But as most say follow the money, and when I do, I see others chance at losing their hold on theirs, which I can see would scare them.

I just personally feel that even being as crazy as some say the ayatollahs are that even with a nuke they would only use it to retaliate after being attacked. Which I hate to say it if the occupying force crosses from Afghanistan and Iraq to the nation of Iran, hell they almost deserve it.

Nuclear weapons were to be a deterent after the first ones were dropped, if the deterent doesn't work next step it to repel. Yet I would be the first to throw pie in the face of the leaders of the free world if they go in and blow Iran to smitherines and once again find no WMD's just peaceful power production, and the creation of medical isotopes.

But that would never happen cause we do our research.... and when research fails we plant evidence, or concoct something to the extent to cover our asses

SaneThinking

I beleive, and some one can correct me if I am wrong, that the recent IAEI report stated Iran was above 23% enrichment. Only about 9-12% is needed for civillian uses. 23% isn't high enough for weapons grade production, but I beleive there is no other reason for anything above about 15% or so......

There are no Western forces in Iraq anymore, other then some trainers/advisor's to the Iraqi' forces.

I still don't see any occupation of Iran, just air strikes on potential military/nuclear facilities.

reply to post by SaneThinking


I do, somewhat, understand and share that opinion about Iran's internal policy, regarding their resources and their economy.

And it's half of the problem, because it's a counter-argument when people accuse Iran of seeking nuclear weapons. People dismiss it as being a plot to weaken Iran.

But if that is the case, and if there is nothing more to it... Then why has Iran made such terrible mistakes, and why did Iran held information that could prove their innocence?

To me it's just a bit confusing, that a country that is being, according to them unfairly, accused of developing nuclear weapons, fails to make sure all evidence is shared to prove that they are not making such attempts.

And this isn't about them allowing other countries into their personal, sensitive and secret bases. This is about them not allowing inspectors going where they need to go.

Originally posted by buster2010
Israel doesn't have the balls to attack Iran. Because the only way Israel would be able to stand a chance against Iran is if they used nukes. Why do you think Israel is always begging America to attack Iran for them? Israel just needs to shut it's mouth until they are actually able to back it up.

Ummmmm, wrong again. Lose.

IDF can smash every country around them all at once, they have done it b4.

But very ballsy of YOU being the armchair general and all. Your obviously a hardened warrior.

Iran and Iraq fought for 10 years to stalemate. We decimated Iraq in a week. You need to get your head from your bum and read up about world facts there friend.

Buster.

Oh BTW, just saying.

reply to post by GarrusVasNormandy


For me I agree just open everything up full disclosure would be a great way to go about it, prove to the world that you are not building said "bomb". But then again I think being a part NPT and already having allowed IAEA to prowl around and file reports stating that they do not believe they are making a bomb should hold some creedence. But then again with a neighbor that is hell bent on keeping you down, that has nukes and isn't aort of the NPT and to this day will not release numbers according to there stock pile. Why would another country in the region not be interested in attain the same sort of deterent.

But seems to me even if they open up they still face the same critisism from all sides. I not bye any means an Iran apoligist I feel they have there sticky fingers in all this mess all the same. Just don't think in my mind and from what I have had discussions about that this is as simple as them attaining a nuke and threatening the world, as I said my take on the situ....

SaneThinking

Originally posted by DeadRising
reply to post by hp1229

 

13 days 14 hours 15 minutes 16 seconds.

Thanks. Will program myself and the life for this yet another routine prediction from ATS

reply to post by hp1229


Awesome! Don't forget your zombie ventilator and new world order handbook. Also look on eBay for a handheld Mayan longcount, so you know when to build your ark.

Originally posted by SrWingCommander
Those of you calling the IDF a "pityful" little mitlitary want to explain to me why the IDF virtually alone (yes we supply weapons and ammo) sent the combined Arab armies packing all the way back home in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and in major skirmishes with Syria in 80 to 83? How they have successfully bombed both Iran and Syria's nuclear programs in 80 and 07. How they have prevented being overrun by Syria, Egypt, Iraq at the same time, mulitple times. When Isreal in places is less than 50 miles across??

3 Reasons...
1) The IDF is one of the most professional forces in the world.
2) Yes they get support from the US.
3) God is on their side. You can dispute, argue, whine, bitch, moan, debate, and refute all you want...doesn't really change that fact...well belief..I take it as fact, I realize many here don't.

Oh, and 4...really the better part of most Arab armies pretty much are incapable of doing much of anything but having parades and whipping up on unarmed masses.

An item RARELY talked about in the Arab world is "why hasn't Allah allowed us to beat the Hebrews, is he not on our side"......no, HE isn't.

edit on 10-8-2012 by SrWingCommander because: clarificiation

That was brilliantly written and very thoughtfully explained. I would like to thank you. From now on even ifyou tweet "i had a poop at lunch" I will give you the star.

Originally posted by Frankenchrist
Thing is.

This is said to happen like every year.

For the last 10 years.

Wrong.

Israel has 'wanted' to do it for the last ten years but hasn't been able to do it because America hasn't been game. That is, until now.

It's taken years of propaganda, blackmail and lies to convince America that Iran really is a threat.

The turn around policy from America came in May 2012 (see my NDAA 2013 thread if you want proof), and Israel now has the 'green light' to attack, which they have worked hard to gain for many years.

I'm truly sick of people saying nothing has changed and this has been on the cards for years. It hasn't. Things have changed dramatically this year, with America finally giving in to the Israeli lobby and agreeing to ready a military force strong enough to launch sustained attacks against Iran to protect Israel.

Originally posted by GarrusVasNormandy
reply to post by buster2010

 

Israel does have the balls to attack Iran.

Military speaking, Iran is no bigger threat than what countries like Egypt were in the past. However, the military branches in Israel consider Iran a serious threat, or a sensitive issue that should be handled carefully.

Wrong. Iran is much, much more powerful (in relative size) to what Egypt, Syria or Jordan was 30 years ago. Iran is the world's 12th most powerful nation (which is amazing considering they have no nuclear weapons. If they had nuclear weapons they would be in the Top 10) and have cells around the Mid East with kill or be killed objectives in the event of a war. Iran and Israel can punch the same but the difference is Iran can take the blow Israel can dish out whereas Israel can't take the punch Iran can deliver (even though they are close militarily Iran has a much larger population).

The Israeli PM and other ministers do want to attack Iran, and putting forward that objective. The only reason why they haven't done so, is due to the lack of unilateral support for such action.

Agreed.

But even that lack of support is not due to lack of courage or lack of will. It's simply because other people in Israel's government think that they are unable to effectively stop Iran unless they have also the support of western military forces.

Somewhat agree with.

Israel does indeed have the balls to strike Iran but they also have the common sense to realize any attack on Iran will lead to very serious counter measures and counter strikes. Iran has some 40-50 Shabab-3 missiles (reportedly by US/Israeli intel) which are basically modified Scuds bought from N. Korea and replicated in Iran. They can be armed with thermobaric, EMP, Chemical, Biological or conventional war heads.

They also have a plethora of Yahkonts, Iskander, Shabab-1, Shabab-2s sitting in their armories to pound US forces in the region and to cripple the Iraqi/Saudi/Kuwaiti oil production (which will drive oil prices sky high) and cause a very serious economic blow to an already fragile Europe.

Western military intervention isn't likely in Iran (save for Britain) because of the severe austerity measures at home. Any intervention is going to cost the tax payers more and that will lead to riots on the streets costing millions in damages and millions in loss of income (workers going on strike).

The only ones capable of carrying out an attack on Iran/Syria (who will aid each other in the face of western intervention) is the US, Turkey, Israel with some logistic or specialist support from Britain, France and Italy and the cost of keeping troops in Iran (to stop retaliatory measures or their pursuit of nuclear weapons) will increase taxes (Pentagon war games place the number of soldiers needed to pin down Iran at around 300,000 soldiers) and who do you think will shoulder that bill? The citizenry who are already showing resistance to austerity measures.

Originally posted by SrWingCommander
Those of you calling the IDF a "pityful" little mitlitary want to explain to me why the IDF virtually alone (yes we supply weapons and ammo) sent the combined Arab armies packing all the way back home in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and in major skirmishes with Syria in 80 to 83? How they have successfully bombed both Iran and Syria's nuclear programs in 80 and 07. How they have prevented being overrun by Syria, Egypt, Iraq at the same time, mulitple times. When Isreal in places is less than 50 miles across??

3 Reasons...
1) The IDF is one of the most professional forces in the world.
2) Yes they get support from the US.
3) God is on their side. You can dispute, argue, whine, bitch, moan, debate, and refute all you want...doesn't really change that fact...well belief..I take it as fact, I realize many here don't.

Oh, and 4...really the better part of most Arab armies pretty much are incapable of doing much of anything but having parades and whipping up on unarmed masses.

An item RARELY talked about in the Arab world is "why hasn't Allah allowed us to beat the Hebrews, is he not on our side"......no, HE isn't.

edit on 10-8-2012 by SrWingCommander because: clarificiation

1. Wrong. The Irish Defence Forces are the most professional force in the world simply because we train all day, every day. Don't believe me? Ask the US why they wanted Ireland to sell them a military complex in Kildare and train their troops for counter insurgency before the Operation Iraqi Freedom.
We told them to get lost.

2. Yeah, no poop. They get top of the range military hardware, anti-Air defenses and billions every year for their military upkeep and armaments. It's amazing how they, backed by the world superpower, still don't have the military power to cripple Iran on their own.

3. Don't bring religion into a debate with facts. They won because they had the home field advantage, better hardware, better training and knew when/where would be the best place to defend/counter assault. God had nothing to do with it.

4. Once again, don't bring religion into a debate. It just shows your ignorance of military facts and history.

Originally posted by Trajan

Originally posted by SrWingCommander
Those of you calling the IDF a "pityful" little mitlitary want to explain to me why the IDF virtually alone (yes we supply weapons and ammo) sent the combined Arab armies packing all the way back home in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and in major skirmishes with Syria in 80 to 83? How they have successfully bombed both Iran and Syria's nuclear programs in 80 and 07. How they have prevented being overrun by Syria, Egypt, Iraq at the same time, mulitple times. When Isreal in places is less than 50 miles across??

3 Reasons...
1) The IDF is one of the most professional forces in the world.
2) Yes they get support from the US.
3) God is on their side. You can dispute, argue, whine, bitch, moan, debate, and refute all you want...doesn't really change that fact...well belief..I take it as fact, I realize many here don't.

Oh, and 4...really the better part of most Arab armies pretty much are incapable of doing much of anything but having parades and whipping up on unarmed masses.

An item RARELY talked about in the Arab world is "why hasn't Allah allowed us to beat the Hebrews, is he not on our side"......no, HE isn't.

edit on 10-8-2012 by SrWingCommander because: clarificiation

1. Wrong. The Irish Defence Forces are the most professional force in the world simply because we train all day, every day. Don't believe me? Ask the US why they wanted Ireland to sell them a military complex in Kildare and train their troops for counter insurgency before the Operation Iraqi Freedom.
We told them to get lost.

2. Yeah, no poop. They get top of the range military hardware, anti-Air defenses and billions every year for their military upkeep and armaments. It's amazing how they, backed by the world superpower, still don't have the military power to cripple Iran on their own.

3. Don't bring religion into a debate with facts. They won because they had the home field advantage, better hardware, better training and knew when/where would be the best place to defend/counter assault. God had nothing to do with it.

4. Once again, don't bring religion into a debate. It just shows your ignorance of military facts and history.

1.I said one of, not THE........why the hell you brough the IRISH Defense Force into this I don't know. We are talking about the ISRAELI Defense Force.
2. Despite the technology supplied to the IDF by the US, it's still a VERY small military, they SHOULD not, by sheer numbers and doctrine, have been able to defeat the arab armies in the way they have. I will agree with you that they have superior training, hardware, and tactics. Especially because they do not have space to trade for time in any defensive battle. You get past the Golan Heights or across the Siani then Isreal is about toast. (In fact it's well regarded if those to lines were breached the IDF would resort to nuclear weapons. I beleive that would refer right back to point number one, which you hotly contested. So which is it, are they or are they not one of the most professional militaries in the world? You kind of contradicted yourself.
3. I brought religion into this not because I am ignorant of military facts and history...(far from it, go check the majority of my posts if that's what you think) but because, at it's heart no matter yours or mine or anyone elses personal belief, or lack there of (mine happens to be Judeo Christian)....both sides are driven by religious history. This goes back to Isacc and Ishmeal. Oh sure, oil, politics, economics and a whole host of other issues are involved, but it still does go back to religion.

reply to post by SrWingCommander


1. My bad, I thought you said 'the world's most professional'. Also, I brought the Irish into it because I thought you said they were the best trained/most professional which would have been wrong given that Ireland's armed forces are regularly contracted to train American, British and other Armed Forces.

2. Numbers mean nothing if the enemy can kill more men than you can send to attack. Also, the Israeli Army isn't that small. They have about 180,000 Active and 550,000 Reserve troops. I wouldn't call that small in any way, shape or form. It is smaller than other Mid Eastern nations but they have better equipment and training than their neighbors which negates the number difference.

3. No, you said 'God was on their side' which isn't necessarily true. They *believed* God was on their side but that doesn't justify the belief God saved them. It came down to them having better military training and the home field advantage than any deity.

Also, the Golan Heights and the Sinai have been turned into fortresses by the IDF with specially constructed firing platforms designed to slow down the enemy while the IAF destroys the land forces from the air.
In military strategy it is advised to only ever attack a position with a 3:1 advantage in numbers. Thanks to Israels fortifications that can be changed to 4:1 or 5:1.

Religion does play a part but it is more resource control than religion. Hell, the US wouldn't prop them up if they didn't have a chance to lay claim to regional resources.