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Rasmussen Reports: Romney 47% -- Obama 44%

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posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 01:47 AM
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Rasmussen Reports for Tuesday July 31st.
 


Romney 47% -- Obama 44%


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Romney has a 20-point advantage among white voters. Obama is supported by 91% of black voters and 57% of other minority voters.


and this is interesting;

A third of Americans favor a ban on all television political advertising. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, says the data “suggests many Americans view political campaigns and political advertising as a form of civic pollution.” Just 43% believe American elections are fair to voters.


Rasmussen Reports




posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 01:51 AM
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Rasmussen always polls in favor of Romney or which ever GOP candidate there is,
it is built into their model. They did the same in 2008 with Mccain



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 01:54 AM
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Originally posted by thepresident
Rasmussen always polls in favor of Romney or which ever GOP candidate there is,
it is built into their model. They did the same in 2008 with Mccain


Interesting.

Can we see some old polls ?



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 01:55 AM
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The Real Clear Politics average is what you should look at because it averages
many polls.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Obama is currently +2 when you average 8 polls including Ras



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 02:01 AM
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RCP got the election right within 0.3 margin in 08

This election is much tighter for sure though.

Romney is going to have a very hard time because of the electoral college.

Obama only needs to win a few states that he is polling very well in.

Romney needs a sweep in states he is polling poorly in.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 02:17 AM
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I like Rasmussen because they poll likely voters, not all adults or registered voters. This method seems to work and they have a good track record. From the Rasmussen web site:

Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 02:28 AM
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I wonder what the Obama camp will do to spin it when all the polls are showing a point or two negative beyond margin. July has been a bad month for him and if the stories about him actually putting his own money into the campaign are true then they ran the biggest bluff to ever lose an election when they suggested early on that they actually had a mountain of money.

The Billion Dollar Man, as they were gleefully calling Obama, seems to be more the Buster. Dipping into personal money is the desperate move of a challenger, not the White House occupant and reports of money running out sounds bad.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 02:36 AM
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reply to post by Wrabbit2000
 

My guess? Money and racism.

Have a good night, Wrabbit2000.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 03:20 AM
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I've been telling people over and over in the UK that Romney has a big chance to win the election and is probably favorite. Obviously this is only one poll, but it doesn't matter what a plank Romney looks like abroad, Americans don't care, and to some extent why should they?

It's all about the domestic front and in the particular the economy, which stinks. Romney is unlikely to do any better, but he can be given a chance and then blamed and in 4 years booted out. I think we could be in a stage of a string of one term presidents.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 06:31 AM
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Real Clear Politics has an electoral map that shows Obama will win. As much as I would like to think that Rasmussen is correct and that Obama won't win, the electoral map says otherwise.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 07:28 AM
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reply to post by xuenchen
 


This info is suspect as always. I would like to see the numbers for this poll.

Look guys, you can delude yourselves all you want, but if it comes down to being between Obama and Romney then Romney is going to lose huge (he won't have GOP lackeys to defraud the presidential election like he did the GOPS in house candidate manipulation fest).

There is only one candidate that can beat Obama the GOP leaders would rather have Obama than Ron Paul though, and the constituents are just too dumb to see that the party leaders don't have the people's interests in mind at all.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 07:44 AM
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Originally posted by thepresident
The Real Clear Politics average is what you should look at because it averages
many polls.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Obama is currently +2 when you average 8 polls including Ras


Great post and seems accurate to me. I get tired of distorted facts at ATS. I wish there were more posts with accurate accountability.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 10:35 AM
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Of the top Political Polls ranked for accuracy...Rasmussen ranks at the bottom

See here..
www.backbenchmedia.com...


And here...


Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...



So they ranked last in local races..

And 15th in the top 15 for Presidential
www.fivethirtyeight.com...

SurveyUSA consistently ranks at the top for real world accuracy..

40% Mitt Romney (R)
46% Barack Obama (D)
www.surveyusa.com...

BTW if you are curious how Rasmussen gets it wrong so often in the GOPs favor...They WEIGHT their results.
Meaning they take the actual results and then skew them to represent a majority of republicans....there population weights show the country as having an aggregrious amount of GOP...more than any other pollster...and Rasmussen adjusts their results to reflect that inflated estimate.
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posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 10:56 AM
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National polls are becoming less and less useful as the election gets closer and closer.

Time to start looking at the electoral college map and the polling for individual states.


There is a reason the OP is not wanting to do that though...it paints a very very bad picture for Romney at this point.

For example...the latest polling out of Florida has Obama at a +6, the RCP average has him +1.4 over Romney. In Ohio, the latest poll has Obama at +8 and +6, an RCP average of +4.8. RCP has marked Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota as leaning Obama. Romney has a very very difficult path with the electoral college map.

National polling is almost always going to be tight...but the information outside of the primaries is useless. This thread is just an attempt to try to promote Romney in a positive light...because he has been killing himself on his overseas trip.



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 11:17 AM
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reply to post by OutKast Searcher
 


Agreed. Romney has to win a combination of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and/or Michigan. The GOP didn't carry any of those states in 2008 and Romney probably isn't going to either. He might take Virginia and New Hampshire but that's not going to seal the deal.


EDIT: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania is where Obama and Romney are going to be focused.
edit on 1-8-2012 by METACOMET because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 12:03 PM
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nO ONE REALLY CARES ABOUT THE rASMUSSIN polls.......look how many timesRon Paul beat both.............its a waste of time really,,Obama has 100+ more electoral votes than Willard..Willard will NEVER be president,,the polish guy got it right,,,why is this unemployed american talking to me ?



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 12:26 PM
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Rasmussen's job is to provide optimism/encouragement to Romney's wealthy donors.

Otherwise no one would throw their money away.

Expect the race to get crazy ugly....race baiting...smears...birther remix.. as desperation sets in on the right.
edit on 1-8-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 01:42 PM
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Originally posted by OutKast Searcher

For example...the latest polling out of Florida has Obama at a +6, the RCP average has him +1.4 over Romney. In Ohio, the latest poll has Obama at +8 and +6, an RCP average of +4.8. RCP has marked Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota as leaning Obama. Romney has a very very difficult path with the electoral college map.


My only concern is what effect the unprecidented amount of voter suppression tactics/new laws, squarely focused on swing states, will have.

How many points does it buy the GOP? Live in the city and don't drive a car or have a drivers liscense? Recently foreclosed on/moved and no longer at your previous address? Lost your job and haven't gotten around to scraping up the $100 dollars to renew your DL? Looking for that office that issues Voter IDs...it's 10 miles away and only open a few days a month during work hours?



July 18, 2012 |

The Brennan Center's report doubles its estimated impact from last fall as 2012 voting rights litigation heats up.

Stricter new voter ID laws passed by GOP-controlled legislatures have the potential to affect millions of voters in 10 states this fall, including large numbers in the presidential swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a new report by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School.

The voters most likely to be affected are half-a-million low-income people who don't have a car or easy access to state offices to obtain the "alternative forms of ID" these new voter suppression laws say would allow otherwise eligible voters to get a ballot. Moreover, 10 million eligible voters--including many African Americans and Latinos--live more than 10 miles from these offices, which in some states are open only several days a month.



www.alternet.org...
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edit on 1-8-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 1 2012 @ 02:00 PM
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reply to post by Indigo5
 

Dear Indigo5,

As always, nice to see you.

I happen to interpret the information a little differently than you do.


Of the top Political Polls ranked for accuracy...Rasmussen ranks at the bottom

See here..
www.backbenchmedia.com...
Well, I did see here and noticed that the article ranked Rasmusses 9th out of over 250 polling companies. Hardly ranking at the bottom. Could they actually be the best? I'm not arguing for it, but the article notes:

Statisticians could find fault with many of the assumptions of the ranking system used here, so I would suggest that you use the ranking pollsters in a simple way. In other words; you shouldn’t assume that the 5th ranked pollster is better than the 6th ranked one. However, you can probably assume that the 5th ranked pollster is better than the 106th ranked one.


SurveyUSA consistently ranks at the top for real world accuracy..

40% Mitt Romney (R)
46% Barack Obama (D)
www.surveyusa.com...
Perhaps you didn't notice that you linked to the site's MINNESOTA poll results, not national. If Obama has only a 6 point lead in Minnesota of all places, he could be in trouble.


BTW if you are curious how Rasmussen gets it wrong so often in the GOPs favor...They WEIGHT their results.
Meaning they take the actual results and then skew them to represent a majority of republicans....there population weights show the country as having an aggregrious amount of GOP...more than any other pollster...and Rasmussen adjusts their results to reflect that inflated estimate.
Yes, they weight their results, so does every other pollster. They all weight for age, sex, party affiliation, and who knows what else. That's required for a good sample, it's not a problem. And no, Rasmussen does not make the majority of it's sample Republican. When you say that they have an excessive number of Republicans in their sample, more than any other pollster, you must have some idea of what per centage of their sample is Republican. Would you tell me what it is?

Now you may worry about the number they use for weighting each category, that's legitimate. But weighting in favor of Republicans, I don't see it. They predicted Obama would beat McCain, they currently have Obama ahead in safe or leaning electoral college votes.

Anyway, it may very well change next week. I'd be a lot more comfortable if all polls were reported completely, with weighting numbers, etc. Would you believe it? Some pollsters overweight the Democrats!


With respect,
Charles1952



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