It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Romney has a 20-point advantage among white voters. Obama is supported by 91% of black voters and 57% of other minority voters.
A third of Americans favor a ban on all television political advertising. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, says the data “suggests many Americans view political campaigns and political advertising as a form of civic pollution.” Just 43% believe American elections are fair to voters.
Originally posted by thepresident
Rasmussen always polls in favor of Romney or which ever GOP candidate there is,
it is built into their model. They did the same in 2008 with Mccain
Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis.
Originally posted by thepresident
The Real Clear Politics average is what you should look at because it averages
Obama is currently +2 when you average 8 polls including Ras
Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.
On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.
Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
For example...the latest polling out of Florida has Obama at a +6, the RCP average has him +1.4 over Romney. In Ohio, the latest poll has Obama at +8 and +6, an RCP average of +4.8. RCP has marked Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota as leaning Obama. Romney has a very very difficult path with the electoral college map.
July 18, 2012 |
The Brennan Center's report doubles its estimated impact from last fall as 2012 voting rights litigation heats up.
Stricter new voter ID laws passed by GOP-controlled legislatures have the potential to affect millions of voters in 10 states this fall, including large numbers in the presidential swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a new report by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School.
The voters most likely to be affected are half-a-million low-income people who don't have a car or easy access to state offices to obtain the "alternative forms of ID" these new voter suppression laws say would allow otherwise eligible voters to get a ballot. Moreover, 10 million eligible voters--including many African Americans and Latinos--live more than 10 miles from these offices, which in some states are open only several days a month.
Well, I did see here and noticed that the article ranked Rasmusses 9th out of over 250 polling companies. Hardly ranking at the bottom. Could they actually be the best? I'm not arguing for it, but the article notes:
Of the top Political Polls ranked for accuracy...Rasmussen ranks at the bottom
Statisticians could find fault with many of the assumptions of the ranking system used here, so I would suggest that you use the ranking pollsters in a simple way. In other words; you shouldn’t assume that the 5th ranked pollster is better than the 6th ranked one. However, you can probably assume that the 5th ranked pollster is better than the 106th ranked one.
Perhaps you didn't notice that you linked to the site's MINNESOTA poll results, not national. If Obama has only a 6 point lead in Minnesota of all places, he could be in trouble.
SurveyUSA consistently ranks at the top for real world accuracy..
40% Mitt Romney (R)
46% Barack Obama (D)
Yes, they weight their results, so does every other pollster. They all weight for age, sex, party affiliation, and who knows what else. That's required for a good sample, it's not a problem. And no, Rasmussen does not make the majority of it's sample Republican. When you say that they have an excessive number of Republicans in their sample, more than any other pollster, you must have some idea of what per centage of their sample is Republican. Would you tell me what it is?
BTW if you are curious how Rasmussen gets it wrong so often in the GOPs favor...They WEIGHT their results.
Meaning they take the actual results and then skew them to represent a majority of republicans....there population weights show the country as having an aggregrious amount of GOP...more than any other pollster...and Rasmussen adjusts their results to reflect that inflated estimate.