Cosmic Rays literally off the charts?, page 1


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ATS Members have flagged this thread 8 times


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 06:30 AM by DJW001
reply to post by PlanetXisHERE



I don't think this is an error, as you can see them buidling at the same times in the days before. Should we be worried about this? What is causing this? What if the trend gets stronger?


I think we should all go to this page, read it, and educate ourselves so that we understand what we're looking at:

neutronm.bartol.udel.edu...


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 06:33 AM by PlanetXisHERE
reply to post by DJW001



You mean this?

This plot can be used as an early warning of a large solar energetic particle event.




reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 06:39 AM by PlanetXisHERE
reply to post by rootbranch2012



Wow, you've been busy since joining. Care to share any insights or sources on these comments? You won't get any judgement from me...............some others derive comfort from that mode though.


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 06:44 AM by DJW001
reply to post by PlanetXisHERE



You mean this?


No, this:

Disclaimer

This is a prototype, experimental site. Use of material on this site for any purpose is at your own risk. We do not guarantee that the realtime displays will be available or up-to-date at all times. Realtime data have not been subjected to rigorous quality control; it may contain "glitches" that produce false alarms or fail to detect true space weather disturbances. Even when the data are good, there may be physical factors that produce false alarms or fail to detect true space weather disturbances.


neutronm.bartol.udel.edu...

In fact, the chart does show that there have been two CMEs during the past three days. This is not unusual during a solar maximum.

INCOMING CME, WEAK IMPACT EXPECTED: A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by Saturday's M6-class flare is heading toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on July 31st around 1500 UT (+/- 7 hours). ...

This is a slow-moving CME. The cloud's low speed (382 km/s estimated) combined with its glancing trajectory suggests a weak impact is in the offing. Nevertheless, polar geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives.


spaceweather.com... [7/31/12]


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 07:56 AM by PlanetXisHERE
reply to post by DJW001



Your sending conflicting messages - so are these readings that appear to be off the chart due to the two CME's we had recently, or due to the experimental nature of the project?


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 08:05 AM by DJW001
reply to post by PlanetXisHERE



Your sending conflicting messages - so are these readings that appear to be off the chart due to the two CME's we had recently, or due to the experimental nature of the project?


A little of both, actually. I suspect the size of the red and blue blobs has something to do with the way they are formatting the data display; the size of the dots are probably logarithmic to bring out small differences... a large event gets exaggerated. That's just my first guess, however. Don't worry, I'm looking into it, and will get back to you later when I know for sure.


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 08:07 AM by PlanetXisHERE
Originally posted by DJW001
reply to
post by PlanetXisHERE



Your sending conflicting messages - so are these readings that appear to be off the chart due to the two CME's we had recently, or due to the experimental nature of the project?


A little of both, actually. I suspect the size of the red and blue blobs has something to do with the way they are formatting the data display; the size of the dots are probably logarithmic to bring out small differences... a large event gets exaggerated. That's just my first guess, however. Don't worry, I'm looking into it, and will get back to you later when I know for sure.


Thanks.....it's nice to have a normal conversation with you about this without getting into egos, emotions etc.



reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 08:59 AM by DJW001
reply to post by PlanetXisHERE



Thanks for the investigation. Will you let us know on here if you see something related to the Sun's particle emissions and/or cosmic rays that we should be concerned about?


Sure. In the meantime, please write to your government representatives and urge them to take appropriate measures to harden the electrical infrastructure against large CMEs. They are a very real danger, and public utilities are loathe to spend money on replacement transformers just in case they are damaged by a once in a century event.


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 09:34 AM by PlanetXisHERE
Originally posted by DJW001
reply to
post by PlanetXisHERE



Thanks for the investigation. Will you let us know on here if you see something related to the Sun's particle emissions and/or cosmic rays that we should be concerned about?


Sure. In the meantime, please write to your government representatives and urge them to take appropriate measures to harden the electrical infrastructure against large CMEs. They are a very real danger, and public utilities are loathe to spend money on replacement transformers just in case they are damaged by a once in a century event.


That is cause for concern, but I'm more worried about the electrical infrastructure in nuke plants. I can survive grid collapse, worldwide fallout from over 400 nuclear reactors or even a few dozen I'm not so sure about.


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 04:34 PM by eriktheawful
Originally posted by PlanetXisHERE
Originally posted by DJW001
reply to
post by PlanetXisHERE



Thanks for the investigation. Will you let us know on here if you see something related to the Sun's particle emissions and/or cosmic rays that we should be concerned about?


Sure. In the meantime, please write to your government representatives and urge them to take appropriate measures to harden the electrical infrastructure against large CMEs. They are a very real danger, and public utilities are loathe to spend money on replacement transformers just in case they are damaged by a once in a century event.


That is cause for concern, but I'm more worried about the electrical infrastructure in nuke plants. I can survive grid collapse, worldwide fallout from over 400 nuclear reactors or even a few dozen I'm not so sure about.


The good news about CME's and solar flares is, like hurricanes here on Earth, we get a lot more heads up than say with a tornado or especially like an earthquake (or worse, earthquake and tsunami).

Power companies today take solar weather very seriously now (as compared to in the past), and know that much of their equipment can survive a large scale CME that is a direct hit with us simply by shutting the equipment down so that the grid is off line. The current induced in transformers and substations by the CME alone is a lot less than if the grid is up, and especially if power demand at the time is high. In those cases, the CME can induce more than the equipment can handle simply because it was almost at capacity during normal operations.

Prior to these times, we didn't really come to understand that large sun activity could shut down or damage our grid. With the understanding now, and especially since a lot of that equipment (those massive sub station transformers) can not be replaced quickly or would have to be manufactured again taking possibly years, they take it a lot more seriously.

As for the nuclear power plants: the good news there is if electrical power fails, the rods can be manually (and quite quickly) be inserted to stop the reaction.
However, as you pointed out, there is the cooling to consider especially for the spent rods. Back up pumps are required, and again, since they are not normally running, they should be safe from a large CME hitting the Earth and should fire up just fine.

BUT: they run on like diesel fuel and would have to be kept running, but for how long? However, unlike what happened over in Japan, a CME would give us plenty of heads up and time to prepare for.

I've not go into researching this myself, but you might want to (maybe even do a thread on it). I do know that power companies are well known for going "cheap" and cutting corners.

Now THIS is a "Doomsday" idea I can support you on partially!


reply posted on 31-7-2012 @ 08:24 PM by PlanetXisHERE
reply to post by eriktheawful



Good points Erik. Was there a specific event which made the electrical companies sit up and take notice or was it a gradual process?

Also, I have read that though you are correct about manually inserting the rods, most nuke plants only have diesel for the back-up cooling power for thirty days, while the rods take about one year to cool to get to the point where they can be put into dry storage.
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