New Madrid Fault And Concurrent Localized Heat Wave - Manufactured Quake Coming?

This might fit the Skunk Works forum better, cause it is pretty speculative.

The heat wave would not likely affect the typical fault, since faults are usually many km's underground- where temperatures and pressures are generally of limited variance. In other words, despite the extreme heat above, the ground below 10 ft deep remains relatively unaffected by a heat condition on the surface. I mean if what you are saying were the case, we'd see earthquakes all the time in the desert.

Too much water on the other hand could have a possibility to lubricate faults, and cause slippage. I'd be more concerned if a massive storm dumped oceans of water on the NM, myself... With the last big quakes on the New Madrid in the 1800's, I think it's probably going to be a lot of years before anything that big happens there again- come heat, cold, rain or drought.

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are
Here is just the thing I was looking for:

Earthquake weather
en.wikipedia.org...

Some recent research has found a correlation between a sudden relative spike in atmospheric temperate 2-5 days before an earthquake. It is speculated that this rise is caused by the movement of ions within the earth's crust, related to the oncoming earthquake. However, in this case the atmospheric changes are caused by the earthquake, rather than causing it.

This refutes my idea. I have yet to find anything to support my idea.
See... I'm not obtuse.
Just looking for answers.

So...I didn't readthe article yet...but just going on what you have copied from it, speculatively, an earthquake can be semi-predicted by monitoring atmospheric temps??? What I read is that the temp spikes 2-5 days before the quake happens...

Originally posted by strafgod
All I can ask is, does the temps above ground affect fault lines?

 

Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com

 

That's it in a nutshell. But not just heat. Weeks and weeks of prolonged heat baking the fault line.

It is a scientific fact that heat creates pressure. I am at a loss as to whether said prolonged heat would create pressure at the depths of the fault. This is the focus of the thread.

reply to post by edaced4


Correct. There is ongoing research devoted to answering this very question.

Let me digress and point you here:

Temperature rises hint at earthquake prediction
17:48 14 December 2001 by Catherine Zandonella
www.newscientist.com...

Finally, a Way to Predict Earthquakes? Atmospheric Temp Spiked Before Japan Quake
May 23rd, 2011 9:53
by Veronique Greenwood
blogs.discovermagazine.com...

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Valid point on the forum tip. Perhaps a mod could shuffle this over to the Skunkworks.

ETA:

The rest of your post cleared some things up for me as well.


That does make sense.

reply to post by this_is_who_we_are


Very interesting! Thanks for the info. Now I have something more to research. Seems that maybe the temp might be what causes animals to go nuts before a quake. Perhaps animals are much more sensitive to temps than we humans are?

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are

Originally posted by daynight42
I really don't understand

That is a true statement.

Let me direct you to a better place to seek out answers....Yahoo Answers. You can pose a question and there are plenty of very qualified people to answer.

You didn't ask an expert, you proposed a question to an entire forum full of people, most of whom have no idea.

I've been a part of Yahoo Answers. There are professionals there who donate their time to answering questions in specific categories. It's very helpful.

I guess it was wrong to say I don't understand. I do. You just want attention for an idea you have. The most wild the better, as it turns out. People like their entertainment to be real these days, so few people are going to object.

There are better ways to get answers, not that that was the real point of your thread in the first place. You just wanted some attention for a wild idea (my opinion). It's great to see some brainstorming, at least.

How many times do you have to reply to my single post? Thread bumping? Enjoy it while it lasts.

Funny, I just read a thread along these lines

www.abovetopsecret.com...

and then I read this.

It is interesting how the darkest spots on both maps seem to be centered around places with some degree of geological instability,

OP, I think this is a good thread. I didn't see it as fear-mongering but inquisitive and asking for help looking up the way this would work. Good job! I've also wondered about this correlation. I think one thing we can all agree on is that the last time the New Madrid ruptured it was surrounded by unusual weather (based on accounts that I've read.) we've definitely been seeing unusual weather as of late in the whole country. I have "quake watch" installed on my phone and there for quite a while I was noticing 1.x-2.x rating earthquakes almost daily in the region... Not so much in the past week. My question is, can seismic activity slow down in an area before a larger quake?

After some digging, OP, I found this on the USGS website:

It’s been raining a lot, or very hot--it must be earthquake weather! FICTION: Many people believe that earthquakes are more common in certain kinds of weather. In fact, no correlation with weather has been found. Earthquakes begin many kilometers (miles) below the region affected by surface weather. People tend to notice earthquakes that fit the pattern and forget the ones that don't. Also, every region of the world has a story about earthquake weather, but the type of weather is whatever they had for their most memorable earthquake.

Still couldn't find answers to my question though. I'll keep digging and post my own thread about it if I find an answer to my question.

I'm certainly no expert on anything, but I think that the dry conditions would actually be more significant that the heat alone. If there is a significant amount of clay in the soil, the extreme drought conditions would cause the ground to contract, crack, and become very brittle. While this is only topsoil, it can expose the underlying bedrock to the elements, which could then be affected, in a chain reaction sort of way.

I think the increases for the chance of a large quake could be misguessed. I would suppose that extra dry-land could make a difference but I could not say for sure. We have record heat and dryness here so I suspect that we will get some rain soon. If not we are in trouble here.

Originally posted by larphillips
I'm certainly no expert on anything, but I think that the dry conditions would actually be more significant that the heat alone. If there is a significant amount of clay in the soil, the extreme drought conditions would cause the ground to contract, crack, and become very brittle. While this is only topsoil, it can expose the underlying bedrock to the elements, which could then be affected, in a chain reaction sort of way.

Thank you for your input. Can anyone who is knowledgeable in the area of geology and or earthquakes add to this one way or the other. I like this hypothesis.

Any experts out there?

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are

Originally posted by larphillips
I'm certainly no expert on anything, but I think that the dry conditions would actually be more significant that the heat alone. If there is a significant amount of clay in the soil, the extreme drought conditions would cause the ground to contract, crack, and become very brittle. While this is only topsoil, it can expose the underlying bedrock to the elements, which could then be affected, in a chain reaction sort of way.

Thank you for your input. Can anyone who is knowledgeable in the area of geology and or earthquakes add to this one way or the other. I like this hypothesis.

Any experts out there?

edit on 7/28/2012 by this_is_who_we_are because: typo

Well he is correct about the topsoil but I wonder what effect this may have on overall watetables? I believe the chance is just as strong now as it has ben for a long time now. We just have the tech to measure these things now and can measure their strength quite easily.

I found this post to be interesting enough to finally create an account!
I am no expert, but it seems to me that the baking, dry heat could be a precursor to a "perfect storm" (perfect earthquake?). obviously extended periods of dry heat affects the soil, but heat also fuels severe storms. water on the fault might not do it alone, but if significant storms move through, or flooding from upstream, or a hurricane buries itself and its dregs in the area, you could have a lot of slippage! if drying out the soil contracts it, and you pour water in the spaces, the ground would take time to absorb it to regular moisture levels. thats like dried unfired clay, get it wet on the outside and its slippery mud, but still caked and dry in the center. slippery mud to lube the fault.

Jim Berkland (Home page) is a geologist that bases earthquake predictions on water, tides, and lunar cycles. He has had some success with predictions in the past; but, the quality of his site has dwindled over the past few years. It still makes for a good read and may answer many of your questions.

My thoughts are that extreme loading and unloading of water weight in an area would have to have some impact. Consider the flooding from last year and the complete turn-around now. A 13 inch deficit of water over several states is a lot of missing water weight.

And yes the water table is affected. My water well in central Missouri has started running dry if I leave it run for over an hour. That has not happened since we had the well drilled an extra 125 feet 12 years ago. We were told that we had 60 feet of water then, and that there was no way that we could run it dry again.

I was just reading yesterday about the "surface heat /major earthquake" connection. I live on the Hayward fault near San Francisco, and my family lives on the Wabash Valley fault (which is the northeast end of the New Madrid fault) in Illinois.
Ive been seeing the weird sky flashes and noticing strange heat fluctuations for several weeks. Ive had a bad feeling about it lately, too. Something is gearing up......

Maybe the intitial drought (if forced or not) would cause extremely brittle ground, then as alot of us have heard before that a flood can possibly provoke a quake. Maybe they intend to work off the extremely dry ground and hit it with a huge storm.. Say hurricane Sandy? In order to try to force an EQ. Thoughts?