reply to post by muzzleflash
Well let's see if I can give you a little relevant speculation:
1) After getting to know a lot more about how the volcanoes are monitored, and who does what, and the state of instrumentation at many, as well as the
state and structure of monitoring duties, as crazy as it might sound, I actually am helping, even just a little tiny bit, to watch over them during
2) Because of what I have learned, I do have a slight concern that the tolerance for earthquake activity at YS has become so high, without any alerts
from the YVO, that it essentially could be making a fatal assumption about a rapid onset scenario at a massive supervolcano like this. We just don't
know what the precursors would be. I think they have damn good guesses, and pretty much assume that it would exhibit the characteristics of more
typical eruptions. They are expecting increases in gas emissions, uplift, newly spotted thermal features, and other things too, like a long gestation
3) I for the most part agree! But what if we are wrong? We cannot afford to let humanity pay the price for being wrong about YS. We just can't. And
therefore we cannot let up having real eyes on that data constantly, for the rest of humanity's existence! And my point is, currently, that is not
happening. Yes, there are eyes on it during the day, and some very good people like Jamie and Bob watch over it, go over spectros all the time, etc,
4) There are two big elephants in the room in the US that I will not rest until there is non-stop, 24/7 data watch on Real Time Data: LV and YS. If my
contribution to humanity is to merely fuss, bicker, and monitor the damn things myself late night until this is in place, then so be it. This is of
course the plan, in a way with NVEWS. But for some reason Congress has not funded a large portion of it. $ 5 billion of failed camo was more
Bailouts to grubby bankers was more important.
5) Many scientists feel otherwise, that they are so sure YS or LV would exhibit the expected symptoms, that it is not worth the extra money to monitor
them 24/7. I just try to keep reminding them that one hour saved on the front end is potentially 100,000 lives saved on the back end. I have asked
specifically about protocol in the event of massive tremors at YS, and I get zero answers. I cannot say for sure that there is any kind of rehearsed
plan on what exactly to do, and who to contact, if an emergency develops very fast at one of these beasts.
6) Scenario: It's 2:30 am at Menlo Park, CA (where most of the pertinent scientists are for the Volcano Observatories), everyone's asleep or not
paying attention. Out of the blue, during a newly developed swarm, I get a sudden long period event near one of the resurgent domes. But because so
far there has been no 3+ quake, no pages have gone out to alert scientists yet. The hands of humanity now rest in some total noob's hands, namely, me.
Now that is just stupid, and should never be. And before I can even decide whether to make a phone call, I get another one, bigger, more
menacing, and showing up all over the park, but still not enough to trigger pages.
Now stop right there. The lack of a pro manning the guns in that case, and the lack of a coherent plan are going to cost lives if things proceed
quickly, on a massive scale and without much more warning. I won't finish this scenario, because you see where it all leads. I am merely illustrating
the point that if it were to go down like this, a lot of people are going to die, that might otherwise have had an extra 20 minutes, at least, before
D-Day. And I guarantee you, that is going to mean the difference between life and death to many on the perimeter of this event with a chance to
escape. It's those I am trying to save. The ones too close are dead anyways.
edit on Wed Jul 25th 2012 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason
EDIT: and oh, update: she's fidgeted with a few more, but overall, activity appears to be on the decline.
edit on Wed Jul 25th 2012 by
TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)
Heh, nope, just cranked up again with a few more, now slightly increasing in rate and magnitude, but still way small, sub 1.5 ...
Wed Jul 25th 2012 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)