posted on Jul, 24 2012 @ 03:09 PM
reply to post by Eurisko2012
I think this is going to be a very interesting election for a number of reasons:
1) The money / fundraising spread between Romney and Obama is not good (for Obama)...something unthinkable a year ago. Thesis: without a catalyst to
change money flow, Romney's coffers could be substantially bigger.
2) Olympics: for the next two weeks -- taking us into mid-August with a less-than-focused American populous paying scant attention to the election.
Thesis: If macro economic indicators continue to trend down....and no catalyst develops to swing the money equation (above)...more money continues to
flow to Romney and Obama is left with only 3 months and a week or so (post Olympics) to turn the tide.
3) Lack of catalyst for Obama: a strong economic recovery seems a scant possibility in the back half of the year. 2012 got off to a super-hot start,
but many of those drivers have waned. Absent a geopolitical or home-grown catalyst to rapidly provide a catalyst to stick with Obama, and he has a
though run ahead of him.
4) THE DARK HORSE: Creativity & Social Reach -- maybe always a specialty of the Dem's...Obama has taken this to a whole new level. Despite
money-gap, driving the vote, reaching swing voters in a compelling, innovative format could help offset the money gap Obama is facing....and "get out
3 months (post Olympics) is an eternity in an election cycle. Signs post to Romney from a capital perspective, but don't count out Obama's
charisma, innovative team, and creativity.
Although I would say -- I NEVER thought I would see as many protests (and general negativity) against a liberal President as I have in San Francisco
in the past 2yrs. Incredible....and that....in an ever-liberal area of the world....isn't a good sign for him...
Just my two cents from San Francisco.....