The Russians withdrew the freighter Alaed ...

The Russians withdrew the freighter Alaed ...

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With the events in Syria are rapidly changing the Russian government decided to order the unloading of three aggressive Syrian Mi-25 helicopters and air defense systems from the cargo ship in Russian port Alaed Baltiysk the enclave of Kaliningrad.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Well in 48hrs we have finally seen a dramatic change in politics. But beware, the fact that Russia is not unloading its cargo into Syria has two basic explanations.

1) An all out attack on all fronts ( borders ) in a possible last ditch effort to retain its current status of leadership. We i mean all out attack, i do mean that its going to get brutal and bloody real fast. The fact that Russia has halted the delivery does mean that it does not want to loose its cargo and as mentioned in the article, the Russian fleet stationed off Cyprus is to be used for evacuation purposes does indicate that a message has been transferred from Syria to Russia in the form of " we simply can't guaranteed your citizens or military as we are about to commence military operations to clear them once and for all"

2) Russia's cargo ship has been recalled for the simple fact that due to recent changes in Syria regarding security they would rather want all their citizens and military away from a zone that they are planning to strike under the flag of "protecting our naval base from terrorist" at what ever cost. On the hand perhaps they would rather want to gather those insurgents into a region that they would feel comfortable in striking without alerting Turkish radar that in turn will alert the insurgents into Syria.

I must say, even as i type this thread, the news is already old, we might very well see a night or night missions within the next hours or more than likely within the week that coming up.

translate.google.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Something is simply not adding up. Only 48hrs ago a " release rules of engagement " was issued to its naval command from Moscow and now we read that they have turned back the cargo load.

Was this, what they initially had planned ? , is so this would explain Mr. Putin relaxed and cool responses to world leaders. What exactly are the Russians upto ?

if i had to guess it would be the russians were informed that the proposed docking/unloading area was not secure. As soon as Russia announced they were bringing the ship im sure Nato spec ops was onto plan b and c to make sure that cargo didnt get in thier enemies hands.

reply to post by Meekbot2000


I agree. I would be willing to bet that the Russians got a heads-up that the port was going to be a "hot LZ" in the near future.

Could it be that Russia has simply delayed it's delivery. Not wanting to appear to be 'physically' supporting the Syrian regime as well as politically. Personally, I dont think they want to appear to be the 'bad guy' on the international stage.

A smart move imo.

Btw, the US and UK must be seething in the face of a third veto by Russia (and China). Makes you wonder who's willing to 'put a foot wrong' first.

Atm both Russia and China are simply playing the game by the rules.

reply to post by logicalview


I doubt it is a delay due to world opinion. Russia has been very vocal (in words and deeds) about their support for Assad. It's crunch time in Syria. Either the rebels are going to take Damascus or Assad will regain control in the next few weeks if not days.


I think it more likely that one of the following is the reason (as others have mentioned) for the freighter not going through:


a) They are concerned about the security of the port and think that the cargo will fall into the hands of the rebels.


b) They have been given a heads-up by Assad that he is about to launch a major offensive and they don't want to get caught in a cross-fire with equipment that will be there too late to effect the battle.


Or, and I think that this is the most likely reason:


c) They think that there is a high probability that they will be drawn into a shooting engagement with NATO that they can not win.


The sanctions are a non-issue at this point. Things are moving very quickly now and this will probably be resolved one way or another before sanctions would have had any effect.

I don't get it, we're definately missing something here..One day the Russians are vetoing sanctions and sending cargo, then another day they are retreating, back and forth back and forth. What a confusing mess. All I know is that we don't know anything about what is really going on over there.

Thank god for that!

Im in Britain it would never have got into the med.

Did not like the "release rules of engagement" as the biggest understatement of this millenium.

Sparks cause fires.

Im sure what a lot of people experience the "tension" or "pressure" in geo politics at the mo, waiting sort of.

The military guys get that to, and often much much worse.

Didn't get the MSM or news it should have done, that is the first time if I am right that order has been given since the second world war to an Russian commander?

(besides afghan chechnia etc, as in not in its territory or border, but international (viet/et al not military like cia etc)

But was ignored so they pulled back, thank god just seems an political or posture move, may give indications of Russia's intentions Syria/Iran in real terms, besides bits of paper and veto's

My heart is much lighter to be honest.

For those who know to watch for the real dangers, of anything approaching an event that would lead to the doom scenarios "daily" on ATS this event signals an "See" change in political and posture terms, than yet very little stars and flags...

You worry about the wrong stuff guys (not all just the doom mongers of which I have partaken to, truth can scare you...) to be honest imho and ignore the real dangers.

This WAS one.

S+F To you for the best news ive seen all day :-)

Happy Days

Love

Elf

reply to post by Doc Gator


Yes, alll plausable scenario's/opinion's, but what we have here, imo, is a stand off and a case of who will push each other over the line.

The line of international condemnation!

reply to post by cerebralassassins


I think and believe this is what i call a false Flag Ship, the real ship for all we know might have left days ago as a ghost ship, untraced.

Otherwise "Ghost Ship"

Cleaver Strategy if i do have to say myself.

Remember cerebralassassins there are many other routes to Sryia from Russia yet the freighter Alaed almost as if it wanted to get caught.

Sending everyone on a wild goose chase.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
Thank god for that!

Too soon to tell what Russia's intentions are.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
Im in Britain it would never have got into the med.

How the hell would Britain prevent a Russian ship from reaching its destination? The ship can easily bypass British territorial waters. Britain has no legal jusrisdiction over it, and any attempts to stop it would lead to a serious escalation with Russia. Britain really has no role interfering in the affairs between Russia and Syria.

Lots of conspiracies - but really - yeah - either the area isn't secure, or they now think Assad is a gonner and don't want to look even more like dicks for continuing to support him.

I can't make a heads and tails out of the Russian approach here. Too much hip hopping from one position to another.

The Russians are delivering weapons by submarine, the cargo ship is just an escort.

Fun times

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul

or they now think Assad is a gonner and don't want to look even more like dicks for continuing to support him.

Unlikey thats what the rebel supporters have been claiming for months now and yet he is still in power, and as of today the desperate media is still trying there best with the propaganda.

Looks to me like the Ruskies have pussed out due to some pressure by someone, somewhere.

Why is China sending anything to Syria to help out their ally?

reply to post by Doc Gator


I agree with all your statements but the last.

I don't think Russia is a guaranteed loss to NATO, I would think there motivation not to be drawn in a fire fight with NATO would be again they will look like the bad guy.

I don't doubt the Russians can hold their own against the NATO Nations in the Area, the problem would be facing ALLLLLLL of NATO. Some 64 nations I think. If Russia gets drawn into a fire fight with NATO, for what ever the reason Russia will inevitably be made to look like the bad guy, and that is the only thing I think they would be worried about.

Originally posted by maloy

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
Thank god for that!

Too soon to tell what Russia's intentions are.

Um now as this is an actual action, intentions lead people to try and work out what the actions will be.
This is an action so it shows us exactly what the "intention" is, and it shows that Russia does not want to escalate this to an Cuba style or Vietnam style issue.

They backed down, have not supported an ally when he needs them the most, have taken an step back from going face to face with Nato etc...

TO be honest your above quote is like saying you donw know what type of morning it will be, sunny or cloudy after the sun has come up.

This is in fact the most clear "intention" and "finger on the pulse" the west has had besides the posturing of putin from years probably since the u2 plane was shot down, so I am sorry I dont only disagree with you I think you are trolling, or have no idea of the what you said meant.

The reason Britain had something to with it is the reason it was sent back in the first place, it was intercepted by the British navy in British waters and turned away, it would have to pass our waters to get to syria from its port.

You know the history of the vessell the story?

So if so wtf with the comment?

It would not have got to the med especially with an armed escort and an sub with it, it would have been blockaded by britain, I am not saying that is right or wrong I am just very glad its been sent back and stand by what I said I said 110% stop trolling me maloy I thought you were on here longer than that and better than that to.

Ta

Elf.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
Im in Britain it would never have got into the med.

How the hell would Britain prevent a Russian ship from reaching its destination? The ship can easily bypass British territorial waters. Britain has no legal jusrisdiction over it, and any attempts to stop it would lead to a serious escalation with Russia. Britain really has no role interfering in the affairs between Russia and Syria.