2012 Presidential Election: Make your own Electoral College Map (early predictions)

It's getting to the time where National Polls are becoming less important and it is time to start looking at individual states.

It is still very early in the election season, so this is for your very early projections of how you think the election will shape up. I plan on doing another thread around September for a mid way point and then another right before the election so we can see how our projections have changed over time. This is for fun people...so let's keep it light.

RealClearPolitics has a nifty little feature where you can make yor own Electoral College Map. It's still very early in the process, but I thought it would be fun to see what people think is current layout of the country. Just go to the webpage, make your map, take a screen print and post it in this thread. If you don't want to take a screen print, you can post a link to your map. To do this you have to click on email option in the "share" options and copy/paste the url they give.

Here is the link to create your own map: www.realclearpolitics.com...

I'll be posting my projection map as a reply. But here are some of their maps that they have.

This is the current RCP map based on current individual state polling. As you can see, Obama has an early lead on Romney and is only 49 electoral college votes away from winning based on the current polling.


If we look at the map that has no toss up states, meaning they give the state to whoever is currently leading in the polls regardless of the margin, you can see that Obama would have the election easily in the bag.


And just for reference, here is the electoral map from last election between Obama and McCain. You can use this to see what toss up states will likely go to which candidate based on history.




Here are some links to help your research as you are making your own map.

Electoral College Map With Links To Individual State Polling

Toss Up States Polling Data:
Colorado: Obama +3.0
Florida: Obama +0.8
Iowa: Obama +2.5
Michigan: Obama +1.8
Missouri: Romney +3.0
Nevada: Obama +5.3
New Hampshire: Obama +5.7
North Carolina: Romney +1.3
Ohio: Obama +2.6
Virginia: Obama +3.0
Wisconsin: Obama +4.0



I'd like to keep this thread about projecting the individual states and polling data and less about bickering about individual issues, there are plenty of threads for that.

So if you would like to create a map, you can do so at this LINK

Here is my early projection as to who the election will end up. Yes, I think it is going to be a very close election and will be decided by only a few states. As you can see in my map...if one or two states go a different way, the results are changed.

My Map



I left all the states that are solid or leaning Obama or Romney as is. I only changed around the toss up states at this time. For the toss up states, here is my reasoning.

Colorado: Obama is currently leading in the polls in Colorado and he carried the State in 2008 with a +8.7 margin. Even though he is polling lower than what he won it at in 2008, I still think he will carry it against Romney.

Florida: I gave this one to Romney. The polling is very very tight in the Sunshine state, but they have Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio down there advocating for Romney. Obama did win it in 2008, but by a very slim margin of +2.5. Florida is a true toss up State...it really won't be known until late in the night on election night who won it. However, if Romney loses Florida...it is over for him...he needs Florida to have any chance at all.

Iowa: I also gave Romney Iowa. The polling suggest that Obama is leading and he won it in 2008 with a very large margin...but I just have a feeling that the people of Iowa are not going to vote the same as they did in 2008. The numbers from 2008 until now are down a lot for Obama in Iowa...so I think that trend might continue.

Michigan: I'm on a Romney kick...I'm being generous and giving him his home State. The polling right now favors Obama and so does the demographics. But I think ol' Mitt is going to want to win his home State even if he loses the election...so I think a lot of money will be dumped into Michigan. Despite Romney saying he wanted Detroit to go bankrupt...people do like to vote for their "hometown" guy.

Missouri: This is getting ridiculous...this goes to Romney as well. Missouri is one of the toss up states that Romney is polling decent in...and it's Missouri...so I think it is going to be red. They didn't vote for Obama in 2008, I don't think that is going to change.

Nevada: Finally...a strong Obama State. I was beginning to think Romney was going to win. I'm not even sure if this is a toss up state. Obama is polling strong, he won Nevada with a strong +12.4 margin in 2008...Harry Reid is there to campaign for him...I think Nevada will stay blue.

New Hampshire: YAY, another strong Obama State. Again...I think this will be moved to a "leans Obama" on the official maps soon...I don't think NH is a true toss up state.

North Carolina: NC goes to Romney. Even though the polling is close...they didn't vote for him in 2008...I don't see them doing it in 2012. Plus, North Carolinians took offense to Obama speaking out in support of Gay Marriage after they voted against it.

Ohio: This is a big swing state...along with Florida...this is one of the most important states of the election. I'm giving it to Obama because he is leading in the polls, he won it last year, and Ohio has benefitted from many of Obama's policies. Ohio is known for manufacturing and blue collar workers...Romney is known for destroying both of those for profit. Obama is polling higher right now in Ohio than what he won it with in 2008. This is why I'm giving it to Obama.

Virginia: Virginia will continue to be a blue state. Obama is polling well and won it with a +6.3 margin in 2008. The very latest single poll has Obama at a +8.0 in Virginia.

Wisconsin: I think a lot of people assume with the Scott Walker recall vote that Wisconsin will be a Romney State, but I don't think this is the case. I'm giving Obama Wisconsin because he is polling very well in Wisconsin, and that polling has been very consistent over the past few months. In 2008 Obama won it with a +13.9 margin...I don't think the margin will be that large this year...but I think he will still carry it.


So there you have it...that is my early projections for the 2012 Presidential Election. Feel free to comment or disagree with any of my projections.

And I hope others will participate and make a map of how they think the election will turn out.

I can play.

here's my map

It wouldn't surprise me if Obama wins Arizona.

The sheer amount of disinformation (lies) being generated by the koch brothers shows the desperation of the extreme far right. The internal discord in the republican party, there purging republicans from the party for not being far enough to the right should be a formula for defeat. Evangelicals will not come out in mass to vote for Romney and every vote 3rd party is a vote for Obama. The msm is giving us the illusion this election will be close, but I don't think so. Besides historically the republicans need the democrats to fix the economy so the republicans can be voted back in to destroy it, then repeat the cycle.

For some reason, it came down to Missouri, or misery... I wen't with my gut... I should have just left it alone.

Florida and Ohio will def be Obama, another

Only time will tell...









I title that last projection, "Yin and Yang"

reply to post by xuenchen


Nice map...we have some minor disagreements on the States...but I would say your map is just as likely as mine.

It does appear it is going to come down to FL, OH, VA, and maybe MI and WI.

I think in a couple more months both of our maps will be changing some...it will be interesting to see how things shift during the campaign.

Thanks for participating.

Here's my map:



I really don't want to elaborate on WHY I think these states will go as I have "predicted", but I was generous to Romney (gave him FL) and I still don't think he'll be able to pull it out. I am hoping for a landslide, but mine is a conservative prediction.

Fun! We'll see how this changes as we approach the election. So exciting!

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


If Obama goes with Rubio .. I agree with BH's map. If he goes with someone else - let's say - Christy then Florida will be blue and New Jersey will be likely be Red.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Good Job! You know, every election cycle I get amazed. It never fails that sooner or later someone says "the what?" when someone else mentions the electoral college. However it goes you get a for the effort.

It would be way too much work but even sub-dividing the maps by areas within states may turn out to be the deciding factor in the end.

For example, I agree FL will be key. Typically, the north of FL and the more rural areas of FL will vote R. Miami and the south will vote D. That leaves the I-4 corridor that basically runs the center of state to swing the whole state one way or the other. I expect LOTS of campaigning will go in in the Tampa/St. Pete and Orlando areas. The Obama camp has already been targeting the area. Michelle was in Orlando stumping for her hubby yesterday.

Originally posted by LDragonFire
It wouldn't surprise me if Obama wins Arizona.

The sheer amount of disinformation (lies) being generated by the koch brothers shows the desperation of the extreme far right. The internal discord in the republican party, there purging republicans from the party for not being far enough to the right should be a formula for defeat. Evangelicals will not come out in mass to vote for Romney and every vote 3rd party is a vote for Obama. The msm is giving us the illusion this election will be close, but I don't think so. Besides historically the republicans need the democrats to fix the economy so the republicans can be voted back in to destroy it, then repeat the cycle.

That's an interesting thought.

Arizona definitely isn't a lock for Romney at this point...he is polling well but anything can happen still. I think McCain won it simply because he is from there and he focused on it to save embaressment.

I just don't know if Obama is going to waste any resources on trying to turn Arizona over to him...because he can win without it. Now if things tighten up even more...then Arizona may be in play and he may start to spend some time and money there.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Great thread Outkast.

Well I had trouble copying the image, but I did one on a normal U.S template map and this is what I came up with:



283 to Obama, 255 to Romney.

Like BH I feel I was being generous giving Romney Florida. Even with Rubio on the ticket, I just feel that Florida will be a tight race as always. I don't believe Romney will win New Jersey with or without Christy, I feel that historically New Jersey residents vote solidly democratic. I don't believe Romney will lock up Massachusetts however I think he will be close. Romney will win Michigan in my view, just barely though. Obama will probably make Ohio, although it will be a tight one.

reply to post by FractalChaos13242017


Quite an interesting take...like I said before...anything can happen.

I would guess from your faces...that you aren't happy with the results of your map....correct?

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


BH, our maps are almost identical. I was just a bit more generous to Romney and gave him Michigan.

My projection is also a conservative projection just because we are still 4 months away. I can see Obama winning Michigan, Florida, and Iowa...which will give him a huge win.

One thing everyone should notice from these maps is that Obama has many paths to win the election...Romney has very few paths...like one.

Here is mine. I put Ohio solidly in Obama's favor because after the disaster that happened in 2010 the State has buyers remorse with our Governor. It is the same with most of the leaning states. Outside of Wisconsin which I give Romney because of the recall business there. Minnesota I give to Romney because those people gave us Bachmann they clearly are insane. Montana I have going for Obama because they will be dissatisfied with the Supreme Court and it's stand on their campaign laws and will realize Romney could nominate Justices that will be the doom of us all. Florida is the only one I think will go either way at present time while typically leaning conservative they are not happy with the current Governor.

reply to post by FlyersFan


Christie is a bit of an anomaly really I don't think it would be enough for him to be on the ticket to sway the whole state. If and it is a big if he managed to get on the ticket however it would help Romney in alot of other places. But I do agree completely on Rubio and Florida.

Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by FractalChaos13242017

 

Quite an interesting take...like I said before...anything can happen.

I would guess from your

faces...that you aren't happy with the results of your map....correct?

To say the least!

Where in the hell was my Ron Paul option? This very instance of us using this website to forecast between Obama and Romney highlights what exactly is wrong in the US. Well... amongst other thing... I'm not going to rant about partisan politics, but yeah.

Originally posted by xuenchen
I can play.

here's my map

That one looks good to me.

Romney will grab those states because the next 2 Jobs Growth Reports will

be absolutely terrible.

I can already see President Mitt Romney getting sworn in January 20, 2012.

It's going to be a very busy 8 years for President Mitt Romney.

Originally posted by FlyersFan
reply to post by Benevolent Heretic

 

If Obama goes with Rubio .. I agree with BH's map. If he goes with someone else - let's say - Christy then Florida will be blue and New Jersey will be likely be Red.

And if he goes with Condi Rice like the rumors are suggesting...then he may just lose both of them.


But even with Christy, I don't think New Jersey is going to be Red...I think New Jersey will be for Obama no matter who he picks for VP.

It's not very politically correct to say, but the election is going to be won or lost on disaffected working whites in the upper midwest. From personal experience, I know there are many union white households who are very unhappy with what Obama has done, whose perceptions have been colored by race, who will cross lines and vote against him.

Romney wins this election by taking a bundle out of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

Obama will try to win by taking hispanic votes away in places like Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.

It's way too early to project, but I have Romney winning a close election with the solid south, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio.

reply to post by Southern Guardian

283 to Obama, 255 to Romney.

Like BH I feel I was being generous giving Romney Florida. Even with Rubio on the ticket, I just feel that Florida will be a tight race as always. I don't believe Romney will win New Jersey with or without Christy, I feel that historically New Jersey residents vote solidly democratic. I don't believe Romney will lock up Massachusetts however I think he will be close. Romney will win Michigan in my view, just barely though. Obama will probably make Ohio, although it will be a tight one.

If Romney can't win Florida, it's over in my opinion. I think Romney is going to have a really tough time winning Michigan. But I think he may dump a ton of money into Michigan if it starts to look like he has no chance of winning the election...he will just use his money so he doesn't lose his "home" state.


It's been a rough week for Romney...I wonder if our maps would be different if I made this thread today instead of last week?