Here is my early projection as to who the election will end up. Yes, I think it is going to be a very close election and will be decided by only a
few states. As you can see in my map...if one or two states go a different way, the results are changed.
I left all the states that are solid or leaning Obama or Romney as is. I only changed around the toss up states at this time. For the toss up
states, here is my reasoning.
Colorado: Obama is currently leading in the polls in Colorado and he carried the State in 2008 with a +8.7 margin. Even though he is polling lower
than what he won it at in 2008, I still think he will carry it against Romney.
Florida: I gave this one to Romney. The polling is very very tight in the Sunshine state, but they have Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio down there
advocating for Romney. Obama did win it in 2008, but by a very slim margin of +2.5. Florida is a true toss up State...it really won't be known until
late in the night on election night who won it. However, if Romney loses Florida...it is over for him...he needs Florida to have any chance at
Iowa: I also gave Romney Iowa. The polling suggest that Obama is leading and he won it in 2008 with a very large margin...but I just have a feeling
that the people of Iowa are not going to vote the same as they did in 2008. The numbers from 2008 until now are down a lot for Obama in Iowa...so I
think that trend might continue.
Michigan: I'm on a Romney kick...I'm being generous and giving him his home State. The polling right now favors Obama and so does the demographics.
But I think ol' Mitt is going to want to win his home State even if he loses the election...so I think a lot of money will be dumped into Michigan.
Despite Romney saying he wanted Detroit to go bankrupt...people do like to vote for their "hometown" guy.
Missouri: This is getting ridiculous...this goes to Romney as well. Missouri is one of the toss up states that Romney is polling decent in...and it's
Missouri...so I think it is going to be red. They didn't vote for Obama in 2008, I don't think that is going to change.
Nevada: Finally...a strong Obama State. I was beginning to think Romney was going to win. I'm not even sure if this is a toss up state. Obama is
polling strong, he won Nevada with a strong +12.4 margin in 2008...Harry Reid is there to campaign for him...I think Nevada will stay blue.
New Hampshire: YAY, another strong Obama State. Again...I think this will be moved to a "leans Obama" on the official maps soon...I don't think NH
is a true toss up state.
North Carolina: NC goes to Romney. Even though the polling is close...they didn't vote for him in 2008...I don't see them doing it in 2012. Plus,
North Carolinians took offense to Obama speaking out in support of Gay Marriage after they voted against it.
Ohio: This is a big swing state...along with Florida...this is one of the most important states of the election. I'm giving it to Obama because he is
leading in the polls, he won it last year, and Ohio has benefitted from many of Obama's policies. Ohio is known for manufacturing and blue collar
workers...Romney is known for destroying both of those for profit. Obama is polling higher right now in Ohio than what he won it with in 2008. This
is why I'm giving it to Obama.
Virginia: Virginia will continue to be a blue state. Obama is polling well and won it with a +6.3 margin in 2008. The very latest single poll has
Obama at a +8.0 in Virginia.
Wisconsin: I think a lot of people assume with the Scott Walker recall vote that Wisconsin will be a Romney State, but I don't think this is the case.
I'm giving Obama Wisconsin because he is polling very well in Wisconsin, and that polling has been very consistent over the past few months. In 2008
Obama won it with a +13.9 margin...I don't think the margin will be that large this year...but I think he will still carry it.
So there you have it...that is my early projections for the 2012 Presidential Election. Feel free to comment or disagree with any of my projections.
And I hope others will participate and make a map of how they think the election will turn out.
edit on 11-7-2012 by OutKast Searcher because: (no reason given)