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reply posted on 27-6-2012 @ 12:57 AM by OccamsRazor04
reply to post by LifeInDeath


Rubio would be good for the Latino vote. Most Republicans will vote Romney no matter what.


reply posted on 27-6-2012 @ 04:05 AM by LifeInDeath
Originally posted by OccamsRazor04
reply to post by LifeInDeath


Rubio would be good for the Latino vote. Most Republicans will vote Romney no matter what.

Obama's already got the Latino vote sewed up, Rubio wouldn't make as much a difference as you think. Rubio could win them Florida, which would be a big deal and maybe worth the nomination in and of itself, but it's not enough to win the election. Obama could lose Florida and still win pretty easily, he's currently that far ahead in electoral votes if you check the state-by-state polls. Florida Latinos are not the same as those that come from Mexican descent (or from other parts of Latin America), they are mostly of Cuban descent and are, at least in the older generations, already more conservative and tend to vote Republican. Second generation Cuban Americans, who are all pretty young, tend to be more liberal and may or may not be swayed just by the fact that he's Cuban or from their state.

And yes, most Republicans will vote for Romney, but there aren't really that many Republicans left. Party identification for Republicans is very low (it's been dropping for both parties, but the problem is worse for Republicans). Most American identify as Independent now, which is where the election will be won.

The thing about Romney, he doesn't want someone to upstage him the way Palin did to McCain, to do so would make him lose what little control of the party he has right now. Rubio would be very likely to upstage him and politically he's pretty different than Romney, much more conservative, more like Palin (though clearly smarter).
edit on 6/27/2012 by LifeInDeath because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 27-6-2012 @ 04:30 AM by OccamsRazor04
reply to post by LifeInDeath


I think you will see that your opinion of Obama being in the lead is not accurate. Tis my opinion at least.


reply posted on 27-6-2012 @ 07:50 AM by LifeInDeath
Originally posted by OccamsRazor04
reply to post by LifeInDeath


I think you will see that your opinion of Obama being in the lead is not accurate. Tis my opinion at least.

I'm looking at current polls, not basing this on my own opinion. They are the only data sets we have to base these things on.


reply posted on 27-6-2012 @ 09:56 AM by LifeInDeath
Further to my point in the previous post, here's the latest Quinnipiac poll:

www.huffingtonpost.com...

Just one poll, should be compared with all of the others. The best places to see all polls aggregated are at:

Real Clear Politics: www.realclearpolitics.com... (Conservative site, but they do a great job of aggregating the polls and link to articles and columns by both conservatives and liberals.)

Nate Silver's 538 Blog: fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com... (Silver doesn't just aggregate polls, he's a statistics wiz who started in sports but does a great job of weeding out the noise and showing what the poll numbers really mean.)
edit on 6/27/2012 by LifeInDeath because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 27-6-2012 @ 10:22 PM by OccamsRazor04
reply to post by LifeInDeath


I am using your source.
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney remain in dead heat

A link from RCP.
firstread.msnbc.msn.com...
Looking at the Polls, there are 11 of them, and all but 1 have Obama and Romney within 3 points of each other.
So how are you getting Obama is way ahead again?
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