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Value of 747-400s plummets

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posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 06:08 PM
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I know I'm old now - prices for 2nd hand 747-400's are falling and I was already almost middle aged when they first arrived - gak!!



Ten-year-old passenger 747-400s are worth a record low $36 million, about 10 percent less than similar aged planes last year, according to Ascend Worldwide Ltd., amid high fuel costs and a cargo slump that has damped interest in converting aircraft into freighters. Forty-eight of the 404 humpbacked passenger 747-400s worldwide have also been placed in storage, according to the London-based aviation consultancy, as the once “Queen of the Skies” is shunned for 777s and Airbus SAS A380s.


I used to work for Air NZ for a while in the late 70's & early 80's - when they replaced DC-10's with 747-200's, and followed the introduction of the -400's in the 90's, and their replacement with 777's this last decade with the last 2 due to go in 2015, and I guess the story is much the same around the rest of the world.

According to wiki the order book for 747-8's was only 111 in October 2011 which to me seems indicative that if you want a 4-engined plane it has to be mega-big (eg A380), and not just super big (747) to make it economical in the face of the high-reliability/efficiency twins.

Not that that will hurt Boeing too much - since the 777 is the current twin of choice!


edit on 17-6-2012 by Aloysius the Gaul because: (no reason given)




posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 06:39 PM
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go boeing....the 727's.....where did they all go?
we don't see any of them nowadays....



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 06:43 PM
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reply to post by GBP/JPY
 


They keep crashing in Nigeria!



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:01 PM
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reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
 


The airlines are getting away from four engines because the engines are becoming so efficient and reliable that you only need two anymore. This also translates to savings since you don't have to carry as much fuel as a four engine aircraft. Twins are actually getting fairly close in carrying capacity to the 747 as well (yes I know 200,000lbs is a lot, but if you look at earlier twin versus four engine MTOWs they were a LOT worse). But the 747-400 MTOW goes from 875,000lbs to 910,000lbs. The 777 MTOW goes from 545,000lbs to 775,000lbs. Since they're relatively close, why waste the money to buy a 747, when you can buy a 777, which has a longer range than the 747-400 depending on the variant, and a lower seat cost per mile.

And now you have the Dreamliner, which has an MTOW in the low end of the 777 class, but a significantly cheaper per mile cost than either airframe.

Honestly I'm surprised the 747-8 is selling at all. It's only REAL advantage is the number of seats. They haven't met the goals for range, or power yet, which is upsetting the customers. In fact several have deferred "for unknown reasons" until the airframes that WILL meet Boeing's promises are coming off the line.



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:02 PM
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reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
 


I thought those were DC-9s.



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:23 PM
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reply to post by Zaphod58
 


The Nigerian one was a MD-83, the Ghanaian one a 727...but it had departed Lagos...


But in general you will find the survivors flying around Africa - 1 crashed in the Congo last year, and 1 in Iran too
edit on 17-6-2012 by Aloysius the Gaul because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:32 PM
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reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
 


Ah right. I knew they were both out of Lagos. That's a bad habit of mine. I tend to refer to the entire MD-80 family as DC-9s

According to SOAR, there are 412 still flying outside the US, but I don't know when that was from.



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:46 PM
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I am surprised that some enterprising people with deep pockets would not pick a few of these up and offer non-stop service to Las Vegas from New York or Boston, and non-stop service to DisneyWorld from Denver or St. Louis. The airlines are charging much more for these destinations, so I would see opportunity here, with a decent price and meals and baggage free, like they used to be.



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:54 PM
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reply to post by GBP/JPY
 


There's a bunch in Roswell NM waiting to get scrapped...47-400 also....makes me sad. Check out airliners.net.



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 09:56 PM
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reply to post by charlyv
 


:They get recalled yearly for the Hajj. The pilgrimage to Mecca.
edit on 17-6-2012 by type0civ because: deleted my last sentence



posted on Jun, 17 2012 @ 10:02 PM
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Originally posted by charlyv
I am surprised that some enterprising people with deep pockets would not pick a few of these up and offer non-stop service to Las Vegas from New York or Boston, and non-stop service to DisneyWorld from Denver or St. Louis. The airlines are charging much more for these destinations, so I would see opportunity here, with a decent price and meals and baggage free, like they used to be.


I'm sure if there really is a market for that then somoene will be onto it.

The youngest 747-400 pax a/c is 7 years old - not quite ancient given the 1st one was delivered in 1988 - so I expect them to be around for a decade or more yet in relatively common use somewhere.



posted on Jun, 18 2012 @ 10:27 AM
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Unless BOEING innovates and provide an alternative ( retrofit the older 747-400's with 2 engines instead of 4 with the more powerful and modern GE engines), I'm afraid they all might just get scrapped in the end.



posted on Jun, 18 2012 @ 06:17 PM
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Speaking of 747s, I was looking at Flightaware at Huntsville airport, since it's one of the bigger airports vaguely near me, and found a couple of interesting ones. There's an Atlas Air 744 flight heading to South America, the little thumbnail pic for Atlas showed a Dreamlifter (they operate them now for Boeing), but I don't know if this is one or not. The more interesting one was a 748, also Atlas Air.

The 744 is GT1620, from Huntsville to Viracopos, departing about 1745 local.
The 748 is GT1607, from Huntsville to London, departing roughly 1700 local.



posted on Jun, 18 2012 @ 06:29 PM
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Originally posted by hp1229
Unless BOEING innovates and provide an alternative ( retrofit the older 747-400's with 2 engines instead of 4 with the more powerful and modern GE engines), I'm afraid they all might just get scrapped in the end.


that is the usual fate of the vast majority of airliners apart from a few that get to sit in museums - it is neither here nor there IMO, and het cost of operating a 747 will be enough to ensure that none are kept flying by private owners unless they are billionaires!



posted on Jun, 19 2012 @ 12:33 PM
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Originally posted by Aloysius the Gaul

Originally posted by hp1229
Unless BOEING innovates and provide an alternative ( retrofit the older 747-400's with 2 engines instead of 4 with the more powerful and modern GE engines), I'm afraid they all might just get scrapped in the end.


that is the usual fate of the vast majority of airliners apart from a few that get to sit in museums - it is neither here nor there IMO, and het cost of operating a 747 will be enough to ensure that none are kept flying by private owners unless they are billionaires!

Well yes. It is really the owners/underwriters of the aircrafts taking the loss. Eventual fate would be to use it as a spare parts platform or recycle the metal.



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