Gallup: Even Race Between Kerry And Bush

It seems the recent debate is starting to take effect. According to the latest poll presented by Gallup, the candidates are now tied at 49%-49%. This is no doubt a significant change when compared to the numbers prior to the presidential debate, where Bush had a lead by no less than 8 points. Considering the first debate was supposed to be the strong card of the Bush Administration, it would seem the Democrats have an advantageous position come the following debates.

Nothing has changed...

Gallup just got their act together after being taken to task by a number of indy analysts for creating a false previous Bush lead based on sampling bias.


Likely Voter Samples

Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

GOP: 40%
Dem: 33%
Ind: 28%

Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

GOP: 43%
Dem: 31%
Ind: 25%

Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%
772 Likely Voters

GOP: 35%
Dem: 39%
Ind: 26%

The only change is Gallup quit pretending there were 10% more Republicans than Democrats in their black box of "likely voters."

This election is energized and Democrat voter registration is up 250% in some areas. Gallup just figured out they were going to lose all credibility if they were off 10 points on election day is all and finally faced reality.

But they still can't account for 18 to 21 year old new voters. Nobody can. Nobody has a clue what dorm and cell phone night crawlers are thinking. They aren't polled outside self selecting samples like on-line interactives which frankly sent shudders through pollsters after the debate with some as high as 50 point margins.

There were Friday morning meetings revising sampling strategies for the weekend in every major polling organiztion I'd imagine trying to have a little reality check given the wake up call.

Viva la revolution.