Meteor 2012 AD14, page 2

Originally posted by ngchunter

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

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Chaos therory

I'm sorry that you think that's supposed to somehow disprove my analysis, but it doesn't.

Mate, Honestly, I don't doupt what you say is correct. but what I am saying is that this object has only been discovered about 4 months ago and there is only about 8 months until it arives. Glad we have a global effort and backyard explorers watching the skies, but calulating trajectory as easy as it is, can't be enough, things change little things can cause a great change, look at our weather, it can not be predicted 100% accuratly mostly due to these little changes that totally change the way the weather acts.

Currently, there are lots of ideas of how to protect us from a these object but not one has been proven to work and as far as I know, have been un tested.
This is a perfect opertunity to test ideas. However, Nasa does not have enough time to put a ship together Most meteors do burn up, most are alot smaller than the one coming. and just saying it will burn up isnt good enough, Nasa say's lots of things need to be considered, such as what is it made of? can this be calculated from far enough away to give us enough time to act?

so, lets just pretend something happens and an impact is going to happen, not that it would not be an 'ELE' event, but as someone stated, it would cause a lot of global issues in economy etc, and lets say this was going to stike NYC or in the ocean near NYC, how do you police an evacuation of 8,000,000+

I honestly can't say I trust the Government enough to give people plenty of time... The loss of life would be acceptable compared to the finacial Stress on other cities and states

Originally posted by eriktheawful

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

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Chaos therory

Chaos Theory does not apply to an asteroid with a predictable orbital path, that it has been on for 1, 10, or 100 million years (or even a billion or 2).

Chaos theory does not invalidate physics, astrophysics, etc. It's a study of dynamic systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

Ok, so you know without a doupt that the trajectory it's on is the same one it has always been on that it may once have been on a differant one and may have been even bigger at one time, that nothing has ever interferred with its flight path.... and could our Gravity effect it's future flight path? or perhaps pull it it (not likly since it's going very fast)?

Originally posted by karen61057

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by DJW001

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I did write the blog, never claimed I didn't. As I said was surfing the web and came upon the info and put it I blog then posted here blah blah. Perhaps I should have been more clear. Sorry, get over it.
Ibjad an old ATS account but wanted a new one due to a new email address etc. I posted on two threads by mistake as wrong topic and posted on two more that had relevant topics.

Fact remains the same. What about it and what if it happens etc etc

Well thats true. You didnt claim you wrote this blog. You just claimed you came across it, linked it and even labled it a bit harsh. All that sounds like you were trying to hide the fact you wrote the blog. Now you back peddle with the above disclaimer.

Actually, I wrote "was surfing the web on this and thought I'd share a Blog" Sorry I missed a comma it should have been "was surfing the web on this, and thought I'd share a Blog " and note, I did not say "was surfing the web on this and FOUND a Blog"

I never once would expect the ATS Members not to miss the fact that the Blog page is owned by Moe Fugga which is my ATS user name, and Big Brown Blog is a play on my Surname which isn't a secret.

I mean this in the most non disrespectful way I possible can. Please pay attention to the Grammer and I'll Try to do better on that and my spelling as well

An asteroid the size of a city block is set to fly by Earth Thursday (June 14), and you may be able to watch it happen live.

The near-Earth asteroid 2012 LZ1, which astronomers think is about 1,650 feet (500 meters) wide, will come within 14 lunar distances of Earth Thursday evening. While there's no danger of an impact on this pass, the huge space rock may come close enough to be caught on camera.You can watch the asteroid flyby on Slooh's website, found here: events.slooh.com...

2012 LZ1 just popped onto astronomers' radar this week. It was discovered on the night of June 10-11 by Rob McNaught and his colleagues, who were peering through the Uppsala Schmidt telescope at Siding Spring Observatory in Australia.

This is just another one to point out... even Bigger than the one I was originally refering to and only discovered last week, came reasonably close to eart, 12 Million miles which given the vastness of space isn't that far.

So, dispite all the backyard astronomers and official astronomers all over the world, it is at this time, virtually impossible to watch every inch of space, there will always be that one unpleasant surprise that is going to give alot of people a very bad day

reply to post by karen61057

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Actually DJ that might not be quite true. There have been objects that remained undetected right up until the last possible moment. Any of these objects could have done significant damage in the area where they crashed to earth. Not saying that it would cause an extinction level event or anything like that but certainly could do damage. The fact is, we just dont see everything and its possible for something to get by without detection.

Meteors small enough to evade detection simply don't cause that much damage.

Originally posted by DJW001
reply to post by karen61057

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Actually DJ that might not be quite true. There have been objects that remained undetected right up until the last possible moment. Any of these objects could have done significant damage in the area where they crashed to earth. Not saying that it would cause an extinction level event or anything like that but certainly could do damage. The fact is, we just dont see everything and its possible for something to get by without detection.

Meteors small enough to evade detection simply don't cause that much damage.

unless it landed in your town lol

what about the city block sized one disovered last week? sure it missed, but only by 12 million miles which honestly isn't that far considering how big the universe is, fact is, it is impossible to see everything and detect everything no matter how many backyard astromomers there are. so what happens if we get a cluster of them?

At anyrate you make a lot of sense it a lot of areas, and you know your stuff, but I think your a bit Bias, I mean Honestly, it is absolutly impossible to say that every asteroid/meteor is always on the same path. That one that wized pased a couple of days ago could have been on a completly differant path until it crashed into a larger one, or went through the Asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Speaking of that Asteroid belt, the Asteroids there on in an orbit that is predictable, but I am sure that they are bouncing off each other, and I am sure that this can cause them to break there Orbit and leave the belt, I think I even read it somewhere.. but my point is, I do not think that Asteroid behavior can be 100%predictable. is the 2012 DA14 one small in asteroid terms, perhaps, but how big was the one that caused the The Tunguska event?
It was caused by the air burst of a large meteoroid or comet fragment at an altitude of 5–10 kilometres (3–6 mi) above the Earth's surface. Different studies have yielded varying estimates of the object's size, with general agreement that it was a few tens of metres across. It is the largest impact event in recorded history.

Although the meteoroid or comet appears to have burst in the air rather than hitting the surface, this event is still referred to as an impact. Estimates of the energy of the blast range from 5 to as high as 30 megatons of TNT (21–130 PJ), with 10–15 megatons of TNT (42–63 PJ) the most likely – roughly equal to the United States' Castle Bravo thermonuclear bomb tested on March 1, 1954, about 1,000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, and about one-third the power of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated. The explosion knocked over an estimated 80 million trees covering 2,150 square kilometres (830 sq mi). It is estimated that the shock wave from the blast would have measured 5.0 on the Richter scale. An explosion of this magnitude is capable of destroying a large metropolitan area.

so you can not say with 100% certainty, nor can anyone else, that if it was on a path to earth that it would harmlessly burn up in the atmosphere.... hell, Smaller ones the size of baseballs have gotten through, I've seen them in the museums soooo

en.wikipedia.org...

reply to post by MoeFugga

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Here you go, an app that you can play with as far as looking at impact results:

Earth Impact Effects

You can put in the size, density (they have examples), speed, angle of entry, where it hits (ocean, bedrock, etc), and then click on the calculate button.

I gave it these inputs:

Distance from Impact: 10.00 km ( = 6.21 miles )
Projectile diameter: 50.00 meters ( = 164.00 feet )
Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 25.00 km per second ( = 15.50 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

And here is the results it gave me:

Energy:

Energy before atmospheric entry: 6.14 x 1016 Joules = 1.47 x 101 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 871.7 years
Major Global Changes:

The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Atmospheric Entry:

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 60200 meters = 198000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 7750 meters = 25400 ft
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 8.77 km/s = 5.45 miles/s
The energy of the airburst is 5.38 x 1016 Joules = 1.29 x 101 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.
Air Blast:

What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive approximately 38.3 seconds after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 48800 Pa = 0.488 bars = 6.92 psi
Max wind velocity: 96.5 m/s = 216 mph
Sound Intensity: 94 dB (May cause ear pain)
Damage Description:

Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.

Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.

Glass windows will shatter.

Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

Pretty much fun to play with.

reply to post by eriktheawful

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Thats pretty cool mate, thanks for that

Originally posted by MoeFugga

Originally posted by ngchunter

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

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Chaos therory

I'm sorry that you think that's supposed to somehow disprove my analysis, but it doesn't.

Mate, Honestly, I don't doupt what you say is correct. but what I am saying is that this object has only been discovered about 4 months ago and there is only about 8 months until it arives.

So?

Glad we have a global effort and backyard explorers watching the skies, but calulating trajectory as easy as it is, can't be enough,

Yes, it is enough.

things change little things can cause a great change, look at our weather,

Celestial mechanics has nothing to do with the weather, nor is it unpredictable like the weather. It's not going to hit us when it goes by in 8 months.

I honestly can't say I trust the Government enough to give people plenty of time...

You don't have to, you can calculate the trajectory for yourself as well as the uncertainty in the orbit, which is exactly what I did.

Originally posted by MoeFugga

Originally posted by eriktheawful

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

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Chaos therory

Chaos Theory does not apply to an asteroid with a predictable orbital path, that it has been on for 1, 10, or 100 million years (or even a billion or 2).

Chaos theory does not invalidate physics, astrophysics, etc. It's a study of dynamic systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

Ok, so you know without a doupt that the trajectory it's on is the same one it has always been on that it may once have been on a differant one and may have been even bigger at one time, that nothing has ever interferred with its flight path.... and could our Gravity effect it's future flight path? or perhaps pull it it (not likly since it's going very fast)?

Any object with enough mass can effect the path of another mass, yes. That's how gravity works.

However, we know the Earth's gravity quite well, and how gravity can effect other objects. You were talking about 99942 Apophis and that is a good example of constantly observing an object's path and then seeing how the Earth's gravity might affect it after a close enough pass. It's path will have to be monitored after that pass to see how and if it's orbit has changed.

Keep in mind that these rocks are not moving slowly with Earth's gravity acting like a vacuum cleaner to suck them in. Their velocities are more than enough to escape Earth's gravity. Even passing at under 23,000 miles, it's velocity is more than enough to carry it pass us. Earth's gravity is just not strong enough to stop it in it's tracks and pull it down on us.

We can calculate too even before it get's here how much Earth's gravity will possibly affect it's path, and what it might do after it passes, because we know the strength of Earth's gravity.

reply to post by cloaked4u

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Shake'n ma head,- sad mate, really Sad

Now I truly believe the earth needs an 'E.L.E'

Originally posted by MoeFugga

Originally posted by ngchunter

Originally posted by MoeFugga
and could our Gravity effect it's future flight path?

Ok, apparently you didn't even watch my video. I specifically said that the gravity of the planets was accounted for. I don't think you understand just how accurately we are at calculating these things and projecting whether an impact is possible or not.

so where do you work? Just asking as you refer to "WE"

"We" as in amateur and professional astronomers collectively. Has nothing to do with where I work.

Lets forget this asteroid for a minute... I think you said earlier on that an asteroids trajectory is a constant and never changes, but I am sure that there are other elements in space than can interfere with that, there is no one with any formula capable of predicting everything.

It changes due to the influence of gravity, which we can understand and predict. Over very long periods of time solar radiation pressure can become significant, though again that is accounted for. And yes, it works.

and what about the recent City Block-Size Asteroid 2012 LZ1 which was only discovered over a week ago? yes it missed but somebody was sleeping at their post lol

Has nothing at all to do with the fact that we can plot and predict the orbits of asteroids. And if someone was sleeping at their post we wouldn't have found it, but we did. Small asteroids like that (yes, that is small as asteroids go) can only be discovered when they're relatively close to earth. That is why very small asteroids only a few dozen meters in size are frequently discovered as they're about to pass at less distance than the moon. The smaller the asteroid, the closer it has to be to earth for us to find it. That said, that particular asteroid was discovered when it was still millions of miles from earth and would remain millions of miles from earth; again, it's pretty typical for asteroids that large to be discovered when they're making close approaches that aren't as close as much smaller asteroids. That's because we can detect from a little farther out. And guess what? The orbit calculated for it worked, I was able to find and track it with no problem thanks to the fact that we actually do know what we're doing when it comes to calculating orbits.

What about a large CME?

Irrelevant.

Not trying to be chicken little here, but the JPL’s omission of impact probabilities for 2013 do raise eyebrows.

That's because an impact in 2013 IS NOT POSSIBLE.

Can Solar Flares also impact on an Asteroids trajectory?

No. Solar radiation pressure has a net average cumulative effect over long periods of time, but individual flares do not matter, the sun's overall output of photons is what drives that and again it is something that we can and do account for when calculating the orbit.

Some of these asteroids are newly discovered and are rather close, measuring there distance requires long observation periods, as our atmosphere makes things a little fuzzy and absolute accurate measurment can not be completely 100%

And once again, even with only a few observations within the first few days of discovering 2012 DA14, we knew for a fact that an impact in 2013 was not possible even if it does pass very close to us. I calculated it myself. I hate to sound like a broken record, but you keep making the same appeal to personal incredulity and the answer is still the same. It will not hit us in 2013.

reply to post by ngchunter

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It's not just about 2012 DA14 but you are trying to say that there is nothing that can change an asteroids orbit and the science never makes mistakes..... that last one that passed was alot larger than 2012 DA14 and was only Discovered a week ago, so what if, just saying here, what if it was discovered a weekago but was on a direct path to Earth and lets say it was made up of very dense material (Like George Bush lol) can it still be predicted if it will burn up before impact? what if it didn't impact but exploded in mid air like the 1908 event in Siberia?

Do you know the what elements make up 2012 DA14?, can you say with absolute certainty that it will never impact on earth ever?

I don't claim to be right, I do like to challenge those who have the knowledge such as yourself and I do not believe that it will impact in 2013, But I also think that it is ignorant and self righteous of us to think we can say with 100% certainty what will happen or beable to spot an asteroid on time... and how will we stop it if we have enough notice? NASA claims it can me painted so that it can reflect heat changing it's core temp altering its coarse... but hey, what do I know

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by cloaked4u

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Shake'n ma head,- sad mate, really Sad

Now I truly believe the earth needs an 'E.L.E'

Gee, this happens alot in space with all the space junk out there. Maybe we should all dawn our protective tin foil helmets and hide in the basement. GEE, we still here on planet earth after all this time. BUT WAIT, dawn your helmets and run for the hills.

Originally posted by cloaked4u

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by cloaked4u

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Shake'n ma head,- sad mate, really Sad

Now I truly believe the earth needs an 'E.L.E'

Gee, this happens alot in space with all the space junk out there. Maybe we should all dawn our protective tin foil helmets and hide in the basement. GEE, we still here on planet earth after all this time. BUT WAIT, dawn your helmets and run for the hills.

History has a way of repeating itself, it happened once before, it will happen again, when, who knows but it's far mor likely to happen than UFO & Aliens and even more likely than there veing a chance that there is a God(s)

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

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It's not just about 2012 DA14 but you are trying to say that there is nothing that can change an asteroids orbit and the science never makes mistakes.....

Stop putting words in my mouth. The subject of the thread is 2012 "AD"14, and that is what I'm specifically addressing. In regards to that, there is no mistake and nothing you've mentioned will change the asteroid's orbit from what we know it to be.

that last one that passed was alot larger than 2012 DA14

But a lot farther away.

and was only Discovered a week ago,

And once again, it was far away and remained far away. Nonetheless in order to be discovered it needs to be in the general vicinity.

so what if, just saying here, what if it was discovered a weekago but was on a direct path to Earth and lets say it was made up of very dense material (Like George Bush lol) can it still be predicted if it will burn up before impact?

No, your only option at that point is to evacuate the region to be impacted. That's an unlikely scenario though for an asteroid of this size since we can discover these asteroids during passes where they come no closer to earth than a few million miles. That makes it likely that they'll be found years before any impact, especially given that an impact of a size equivalent to 2012 LZ1 only occurs about once every hundred thousand years or so.

what if it didn't impact but exploded in mid air like the 1908 event in Siberia?

Do you know the what elements make up 2012 DA14?, can you say with absolute certainty that it will never impact on earth ever?

Are you talking about 2012 LZ1 or 2012 DA14? You seem to be freely switching between the two. 2012 DA14 is not a threat to impact us next year, at all. There's a very slight risk beyond that starting in 2026, but that will be better understood after next year's close approach and we are able to better refine the orbit. There are much more likely threats out there than 2012 DA14. You're fixating on nonsense.

I don't claim to be right, I do like to challenge those who have the knowledge such as yourself and I do not believe that it will impact in 2013, But I also think that it is ignorant and self righteous of us to think we can say with 100% certainty what will happen or beable to spot an asteroid on time...

It is not ignorant or self righteous to know that it will not impact in 2013. There is no risk there, period, end of story. I say that because it's the truth, and because I'm not ignorant, I'm informed.

and how will we stop it if we have enough notice? NASA claims it can me painted so that it can reflect heat changing it's core temp altering its coarse... but hey, what do I know

If you want to talk about deflection strategies it might be good to make a separate thread for that. Altering an asteroid's albedo to change the effect of solar radiation pressure is one strategy when there is a sufficient lead time (years). There are many possible deflection strategies available when the lead time is great enough. Gravity tractor, laser ablation, direct thrust, etc, are all possibilities.

reply to post by MoeFugga

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I get what you are saying and so does ngchunter:

Chance impact with another rock, said impact changes it's course.

The chances of that happening are not non-existent, however, the chances of it happening between now and when it goes to pass us is so small that it may as well be non-existent.

Since the asteroid has been discovered, that area of the sky is being watched. Another rock entering to scene would be spotted. If the other rock were to have a chance at impacting this asteroid, we would know about it. If that were to happen, we would have to watch and see if any changes to their paths were to occur.

While the TV shows tell us that our solar system is like a shooting range, keep in mind that space is BIG. Chance impacts with each other in our area of space is a lot lower than say in the asteroid belt itself.

What about a pocket of ice in it that gets heated by the sun? Heat it hot enough and it could rupture from the asteroid and act like a reaction rocket, pushing the asteroid.
But before you jump on that, it would have to get a LOT closer to the sun in order for that to happen.

Is it possible for a rock to come out of nowhere and hit us without ever being spotted?

Absolutely. This happens all the time and you see them as shooting stars. But they are so small they burn up quickly in the atmosphere and rarely affect us here on the ground.

What about something bigger?

The bigger it get's the more chance it has of being spotted, and further away. When you start talking about rocks who's size is measured in miles, we'll see it from a very long way off, giving us months or years heads up.

Is it ever possible for one to be missed and hit us?

I won't sit here and say that there is no way for that to happen. There are some ways that this might happen (like a large rock not hitting us, but the moon instead. Impact is large enough to throw large debris from the moon that then fall towards the Earth, but even then we'd see that and would have at least a day or two to try and evac people).
However, most ways that this would happen, the chances are so small now that I don't loose any sleep over it.

Now go back a few decades or more......and yah, the chances of us not knowing about something coming in on us go up as you had less people looking.

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