Meteor 2012 AD14

was surfing the web on this and thought I'd share a Blog

The Blog is a bit harsh but an interesting and blunt point of view, not something I would Normal put up on ATS but think it's a bit relevant

Does this or a similar threat worry anyone? Should we be worried? Has/is our luck running out? if you were to Guess, how many Objects heading for us are still undetected?

What reasons would the Government(s) have to keep this info secret or 'Dumb it down' as if it's not a real threat other than to avoid mass panic?

reply to post by MoeFugga


the page is there, don't know why the link isn't linking properly, just click "End of the World" from the Blog archive

sorry for that chieif

I think this is the blog OP is referring to. If I missed editing out a word that is out of T&C, then I hope the mods will edit.

End of the world... Whoopty-F****g-Doo!

snippet:

Well now there is one (2012 AD14) the size of 1/2 a football field (50 yards) coming within our orbit on 16 February 2013. NASA says it is most likely going to miss.. MOST LIKELY! That sounds like there is room for error, a possibility it may hit, they have high hopes and fingers crossed that their calculations are accurate enough to be right… personally, I think they did Rock, Paper, Scissors
Thing is, they are not sure, there are factors to consider, factors that are un known such as what is it made of... This is important because certain materials will be affected different by earth gravity or if it will break up or burn up in our atmosphere. Will it take out one of our satellites? Possible since the meteor is going to pass within 23000 km or 17000 mi which is lower than some of many satellites. Another thing to consider, if it crashes into a satellite, could that change its trajectory making it hit or miss earth? And will it alter the Trajectory enough to make it hit earth the next time it comes past.
I am not alone in this thinking, and I’m not talking about other nut jobs, I’m talking about other scientist and astronomers.

reply to post by MoeFugga

was surfing the web on this and thought I'd share a Blog

Actually, I'm pretty sure you write that blog.

The Blog is a bit harsh but an interesting and blunt point of view, not something I would Normal put up on ATS but think it's a bit relevant

It is the only thing you have put on ATS, on four different forums.

Does this or a similar threat worry anyone? Should we be worried? Has/is our luck running out? if you were to Guess, how many Objects heading for us are still undetected?

Anything large enough to do serious damage would be detected.

What reasons would the Government(s) have to keep this info secret or 'Dumb it down' as if it's not a real threat other than to avoid mass panic?

There is a great deal of international cooperation in tracking potentially hazardous near Earth objects. In fact, the public is encouraged to participate. If you discover a new asteroid, you can name it!

reply to post by DJW001


I did write the blog, never claimed I didn't. As I said was surfing the web and came upon the info and put it I blog then posted here blah blah. Perhaps I should have been more clear. Sorry, get over it.
Ibjad an old ATS account but wanted a new one due to a new email address etc. I posted on two threads by mistake as wrong topic and posted on two more that had relevant topics.

Fact remains the same. What about it and what if it happens etc etc

reply to post by DJW001


One of my points in the blog I shared is that this 2012 AD14 was only discovered a few months ago and is to close for anyone to do anything as NASA states it is due 16 Feb 2013

reply to post by MoeFugga

Fact remains the same. What about it and what if it happens etc etc

As I said, anything large enough to do serious damage would be detected. Most meteors break up during entry. If one were large enough to damage an urban area, its trajectory could be calculated far enough in advance for the city to be evacuated. A "planet killer" would probably be met by an international effort to deflect or destroy it.

But only if detected. This one is 40-50 yards across and just recently detected and due in 8 months. Weather it breaks up in our atmosphere depends on its composition ie made of iron or nickel. and most aren't near this size. By NASA's own admition is to late to do anything about, there is only theory as to how to stop a large meteor.

Space it pretty big and if something is coming from a direction that is always being something like the sun much harder to detect

I dunno mate, we are smart creatures but we are not god like beings

reply to post by MoeFugga

But only if detected. This one is 40-50 yards across and just recently detected and due in 8 months. Weather it breaks up in our atmosphere depends on its composition ie made of iron or nickel. and most aren't near this size. By NASA's own admition is to late to do anything about, there is only theory as to how to stop a large meteor.

If it is dangerous enough, the nations of the world will cooperate to put theory into practice:

www.dlr.de...

Space it pretty big and if something is coming from a direction that is always being something like the sun much harder to detect

Don't worry, there are eyes in space looking right at the Sun.

I dunno mate, we are smart creatures but we are not god like beings

We may not be perfect, but here's hoping we're good enough.

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by DJW001

 

What about it and what if it happens etc etc

First of all, you keep getting the name wrong. As per the sensationalist blog you linked to, which in turn references a sensationalist story by RT, the name is 2012 DA14, not 2012 AD14 (the latter is a totally different asteroid that doesn't come anywhere close to earth). Anyway, here's the truth of the matter:

Let's break this down, shall we?

All external text quotes are from: My Big Brown Blog

Well now there is one (2012 AD14) the size of 1/2 a football field (50 yards) coming within our orbit on 16 February 2013. NASA says it is most likely going to miss.. MOST LIKELY! That sounds like there is room for error, a possibility it may hit, they have high hopes and fingers crossed that their calculations are accurate enough to be right… personally, I think they did Rock, Paper, Scissors

It's 50 yards wide (45.72 meters), or about 150 feet across. Do you have any idea how small that is? Very. Now try spotting it with a telescope. It's a point of light. A very DIM point of light. Is it an asteroid, star or planet?
By centering your RA and Dec coordinates, then researching a star chart that is up to date and current, you'll find that it's not a star or planet. So that means it is more than likely a asteroid or comet.
If that last part is true, it will appear to move against the back ground of stars. But depending on how far away it is and it's speed will depend on how much it moves.
So you have to take a picture of it. Then come back the next day at the same time and exact coordinates and look again, then compare it to the picture from the day before. If it moved, then you pretty much nailed the asteroid and comet idea.
But now you need to know how far away it is. There are 2 great ways to do that. The first is to get someone in a different latitude to look at the same place and see it too. That gives you parallax data. Or you wait about 6 months and look at it again. Due to the Earth's tilt and position around the sun, it will give you that parallax data.
Armed with that information, you can now start figuring out how far away it is. Knowing that, and how much it's position changes against the background star field will tell you how fast it's going.
Next is trying to figure out what direction it's going in. That will take days, weeks, even months (and yes in some cases even YEARS) of observing it's position change.
That requires knowledge in Orbital Mechanics. Even then, they have to constantly refine the orbit based upon the information of it's position. This can take quite a while.

Not Rock, Paper, Scissors.

Another thing to consider, if it crashes into a satellite, could that change its trajectory making it hit or miss earth? And will it alter the Trajectory enough to make it hit earth the next time it comes past.

An asteroid 50 yards wide vs. a satellite a few feet wide. I'll refer you to Elastic collisions. In this case, it would be the same as asking how much a human being when hit by a bus, changes the course of the bus. Not much, if at all.

Some things I don't understand about this meteor and the officials who are selling us info.. They say it was just discovered in March 2012 yet they go on to say that it orbits the sun in the same orbit as earth. They also say it comes close to earth or crosses earth pass twice per year. So if they only just discovered it 3 months ago how do they know this? And if they are keeping this info from us then what else are they keeping secret that we else should we know about.

Earth's orbit around the sun is quite well known and has been for a very, very long time. As for figuring out the orbit of the asteroid, I refer you to what I typed above. No one is keeping anything secret. As you've been told, literally 100's of millions of back yard astronomers help discover these objects and are able to observe them too.

This rock itself is very small, and stands a good chance of burning up in our atmosphere. Even if it did make it through, it's impact would not be an ELE event (glad to see you note that on your blog, good job), nor would it affect the Earth globally.
By the time it does get here, we will have figured out if it were to hit, and where. The area would most likely be evacuated (if needed. Could do an ocean strike, in which case we'd have to be on the look out for tsunamis).

reply to post by eriktheawful


My point isnt that its and ele event but that it was only just detected and already very close to earth. It is large enough to cause damage. (compare to the 1908 siberian impact). Nature can not be predicted or stopped. Like weather it is very hard to predict

I refer you to the chaos theory.

I think it is in the governments best interest to keep things of this nature secret but is it morally correct?

The blog is a humorous opinion, dark comedy really, read some of my other blog's .

So I posted here to hear thoughts on the subject and a possible friendly debate and hopefully without being disrespectful or being disrespected ... I guess that's a fail

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by eriktheawful

 

My point isnt that its and ele event but that it was only just detected and already very close to earth. It is large enough to cause damage. (compare to the 1908 siberian impact). Nature can not be predicted or stopped. Like weather it is very hard to predict

But you can predict its path, and you can determine if an impact is a possibility then or not. And it's not.

I think it is in the governments best interest to keep things of this nature secret but is it morally correct?

They can't keep it secret, anyone can observe it and determine for themselves if an impact is possible or not. I refer you again to my video, I did the calculations myself and it's not an impact risk next year.

So I posted here to hear thoughts on the subject and a possible friendly debate and hopefully without being disrespectful or being disrespected ... I guess that's a fail

I fail to see how you were disrespected.

reply to post by MoeFugga


Oh that is freaky weird!

I was reading something some guy wrote several years ago about a calculation for the future date of a SHTF scenario using numerical values and what not in the Quran. I quickly surmised he was one of those nutjobs, (we all know the type), and completely ignored his reasoning.

But he said that an event would happen in Febuary 2013 that would start the ball rolling quite nicely for the SHTF scenario. Now I will wait for this date a little more cautiously perhaps than would otherwise have done!

Cool thread OP


reply to post by eriktheawful


we do not need an ELE event for S to HTF, all we need is something small that can impact economy and or food supply just enough, pushing what is already bad over the edge.

reply to post by ngchunter


Chaos therory

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

 

Chaos therory

I'm sorry that you think that's supposed to somehow disprove my analysis, but it doesn't.

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by ngchunter

 

Chaos therory

Chaos Theory does not apply to an asteroid with a predictable orbital path, that it has been on for 1, 10, or 100 million years (or even a billion or 2).

Chaos theory does not invalidate physics, astrophysics, etc. It's a study of dynamic systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

reply to post by DJW001


Actually DJ that might not be quite true. There have been objects that remained undetected right up until the last possible moment. Any of these objects could have done significant damage in the area where they crashed to earth. Not saying that it would cause an extinction level event or anything like that but certainly could do damage. The fact is, we just dont see everything and its possible for something to get by without detection.

Originally posted by MoeFugga
reply to post by DJW001

 

I did write the blog, never claimed I didn't. As I said was surfing the web and came upon the info and put it I blog then posted here blah blah. Perhaps I should have been more clear. Sorry, get over it.
Ibjad an old ATS account but wanted a new one due to a new email address etc. I posted on two threads by mistake as wrong topic and posted on two more that had relevant topics.

Fact remains the same. What about it and what if it happens etc etc

Well thats true. You didnt claim you wrote this blog. You just claimed you came across it, linked it and even labled it a bit harsh. All that sounds like you were trying to hide the fact you wrote the blog. Now you back peddle with the above disclaimer.

reply to post by MoeFugga


Actually this seems to be an average size. There are some asteroides that are the size of small planets ( Ceres) and some the size of basket balls.