Let's break this down, shall we?
All external text quotes are from: My Big Brown Blog
Well now there is one (2012 AD14) the size of 1/2 a football field (50 yards) coming within our orbit on 16 February 2013. NASA says it is most
likely going to miss.. MOST LIKELY! That sounds like there is room for error, a possibility it may hit, they have high hopes and fingers crossed that
their calculations are accurate enough to be right… personally, I think they did Rock, Paper, Scissors
It's 50 yards wide (45.72 meters), or about 150 feet across. Do you have any idea how small that is? Very. Now try spotting it with a telescope.
It's a point of light. A very DIM point of light. Is it an asteroid, star or planet?
By centering your RA and Dec coordinates, then researching a star chart that is up to date and current, you'll find that it's not a star or planet.
So that means it is more than likely a asteroid or comet.
If that last part is true, it will appear to move against the back ground of stars. But depending on how far away it is and it's speed will depend on
how much it moves.
So you have to take a picture of it. Then come back the next day at the same time and exact coordinates and look again, then compare it to the picture
from the day before. If it moved, then you pretty much nailed the asteroid and comet idea.
But now you need to know how far away it is. There are 2 great ways to do that. The first is to get someone in a different latitude to look at the
same place and see it too. That gives you parallax data. Or you wait about 6 months and look at it again. Due to the Earth's tilt and position around
the sun, it will give you that parallax data.
Armed with that information, you can now start figuring out how far away it is. Knowing that, and how much it's position changes against the
background star field will tell you how fast it's going.
Next is trying to figure out what direction it's going in. That will take days, weeks, even months (and yes in some cases even YEARS) of observing
it's position change.
That requires knowledge in Orbital Mechanics
. Even then, they have to constantly refine the
orbit based upon the information of it's position. This can take quite a while.
Not Rock, Paper, Scissors.
Another thing to consider, if it crashes into a satellite, could that change its trajectory making it hit or miss earth? And will it alter the
Trajectory enough to make it hit earth the next time it comes past.
An asteroid 50 yards wide vs. a satellite a few feet wide. I'll refer you to Elastic
. In this case, it would be the same as asking how much a human being when hit by a bus, changes the course of the bus. Not much, if
Some things I don't understand about this meteor and the officials who are selling us info.. They say it was just discovered in March 2012 yet
they go on to say that it orbits the sun in the same orbit as earth. They also say it comes close to earth or crosses earth pass twice per year. So if
they only just discovered it 3 months ago how do they know this? And if they are keeping this info from us then what else are they keeping secret that
we else should we know about.
Earth's orbit around the sun is quite well known and has been for a very, very long time. As for figuring out the orbit of the asteroid, I refer you
to what I typed above. No one is keeping anything secret. As you've been told, literally 100's of millions of back yard astronomers help discover
these objects and are able to observe them too.
This rock itself is very small, and stands a good chance of burning up in our atmosphere. Even if it did make it through, it's impact would not be an
ELE event (glad to see you note that on your blog, good job), nor would it affect the Earth globally.
By the time it does get here, we will have figured out if it were to hit, and where. The area would most likely be evacuated (if needed. Could do an
ocean strike, in which case we'd have to be on the look out for tsunamis).