reply to post by TDawgRex
War is already on the way.
Only thís time it's not in Europe. The middle-east is the key.
The "resource wars" predicted in the 80's, have been in full-swing since '91's Desert-Storm.
Desert-Storm also was the trigger for larger upheaval in the ME. Upheaval that hád to come. If America hadn't invaded Iraq, it would have been some
other big-player. People high-up were aching (?) for a fight, and Saddam's arrogance was the "yo mama" The West -and a lot of Arab countries, mind
You- were waiting for.
The inevitable kladderadatshj of modern culture and Democracy (however flawed, still the least rotten system we tried) contra a continent that had a
super-rich elite, but with a political system from the middle-ages...
There was NO way to avoid that. Especially with the influx of modern media in the -somewhat primitive- ME when the Internet exploded onto the world.
The sudden connection with societies and political systems só completely alien to the rather unchanging ME, stíll has Aristocracies/ Plutocracies in
the ME reeling.
I dare to make a prediction: It will be War, Messy conflicts and Tribal warfare in the Middle East for the coming 10 years, and then it will settle.
We, The West will be forced into the role of an arbiter more&more while Kingdoms crumble.
The influence of anti-modernist fraidy-cats like Al Qaida, Muslim Brotherhood etc. will be waning faster that we can imagine, mainly due to the
unstoppable power of modern communication. The first signs are already there.
Remember: The louder an animal screams or roars, the more afraid it is, and the loudest roar often ends in a whimper when the animal finally
Relative rest in the ME will be about 2021, About the same time that oil's role will be seriously diminished in the world's energy systems. It will
stíll be there, no doubt here. After all, petrol isn't the ónly product made of oil.
This is not some wild prophesying, but just the result of observing the current surge in interest for- and developments in alternative energy, even by
governments heavily indebted to oil-lobbies, and combining that with other things like demographics, connectivity etc.
We are on a very interesting cross-roads here. I firmly believe we will, eventually, take the right way. Yet, it will be tumultuous until then. And
nothing happens instantly, especially the changing of a centuries old culture. We are trying to force a paradigm-shift on a continent that's barely
out of the middle-ages, one foot in technopolis, one foot in the Middle-Ages.
Europe took centuries of bloody war, and some hefty interference from abroad, before our counts ,barons, kings&queens quit warring with each other at
the slightest provocation.
The Middle-East will have the advantage of the s.c. "Law of Stimulating Arrears". They do not need to re-invent the wheel for a stable model of
government&society. Europe & America already figured out how to do that a.f.a . possible.
They will find their own way, but, it will take some time.
edit on 15/6/12 by dutchmilpo because: (no reason given)