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While the US and others hesitate to supply weapons to the opposition, they have tacitly encouraged consignments from elsewhere – into a region already awash with arms. Syria's violence is already spilling over into Lebanon, where power and demography – as between Christian and Muslim, Sunni and Shia, Lebanese and Palestinian – are so finely balanced. Tripoli, in northern Lebanon, has seen street fighting in recent weeks. South and west of Syria lie Israel, Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories.
To the east, Iraq, with its majority Shia population and defeated Sunni minority, remains unstable, with the Kurdish region in the north independent in all but name. Iraq's Kurds now have representations abroad that look increasingly like diplomatic missions. Any hint of pressure from Baghdad, a more aggressive stance from Turkey, or more general regional turmoil, and the demand for full Kurdish independence could become urgent. That would inevitably precipitate a new surge of discontent in the Kurdish regions of Turkey, Iran and Syria. Kurdish statehood – beyond northern Iraq – has so far been an eventuality almost too sensitive to mention, lest the word fuel demands for the deed.
If the violence in Syria escalates, with or without Assad, and outsiders intervene, it will be almost impossible to confine the turmoil within that country's borders. Even in more self-contained Libya, the overthrow of Gaddafi had unforeseen cross-border fallout – producing a coup and a power vacuum in Mali. With Syria, the risk is already of a region-wide conflagration in which almost every national border and every seat of power could be up for grabs.
Iran is ready to mount a resistance against a possible outside attack on Syria, two senior generals of the Islamic Republic said. The statements come as the level of violence in war-torn Syria continues to escalate.
The pro-Assad “resistance” would ensure that aggressors do not survive the conflict, a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier Gen. Massoud Jazaeri told Mashregh, a media outlet run by the Guards.
Originally posted by frazzle
reply to post by princeofpeace
Do you sit on the right hand of Ahmadinejad now, princeofpeace?
Originally posted by Masamune69
I am really puzzled as to what Russia's longterm strategy is regarding the Syria conflict - it seems to be more than
spoiling tactics due to getting burned over the Lybia/UN 1973 resolution - now they are insisting on Iran being involved in any peace conference knowing the west wont stomach that as they are one of the Assad regimes closest allies - has got me really wondering what their end game in all of this is .
I hope someone with far better geopolitical knowledge than me can weigh in on the subject .
Originally posted by princeofpeace
To make sure their base at Tartus remains there.
Originally posted by frazzle
Originally posted by princeofpeace
To make sure their base at Tartus remains there.
Why didn't you mention why Tartus is important to Russia? ... because its Russia's only warm water port, maybe? I would think that's quite a strategic interest, wouldn't you?
Originally posted by SUICIDEHK45
I think that the invasion of Syria will inevitably lead to the invasion of Iran, and eventually WWIII.