Earthquake Predictions Based on Lost Pets

I have been doing some research on earthquake prediction based on Jim Berkland's original idea.
Jim Berkland

Jim Berkland would view the lost pet ads in the paper. He believes when a larger than normal amount of animals go missing, this is a precursor to an earthquake. I thought this sounded interesting and logical. Animals have always been known to have senses greater than our own. They know when storms are coming, why not earthquakes. Berkland has also considered moon phases and CME's in occurrence with earthquakes.

ATS Threads concerning this matter:
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I live in Missouri so the New Madrid Fault is of interest to me. I found that the cities that would be affected the most if a large earthquake hit that area are Saint Louis, MO, Memphis, TN, and Louisville, KY. I decided to keep track of missing pets from those three cities via Craigslist. I also noted earthquakes of all magnitude, moon phases, and CME's. The following is a list of the sources I used for information.

Earthquakes
CME's
Moon Phases

I have done this for the month of May. I am going to post my findings and links to my research. I would like to continue this for a few months, but I would like some feed back from all of you. What am I doing right/wrong? Is there something I need to take into consideration? Is there something I should add or the research? I know there have been others doing this kind of experiment, and I viewed their work and based my own off of theirs. However, I have tweaked mine to my own interests.

The following is a basic summary of my findings. You can view a complete analysis here.

There were a total of 13 earthquakes along the New Madrid Fault in May. The largest was a 2.9, the smallest a 1.0.

Saint Louis :
PDF of research

The average number of missing pets in Saint Louis was 11. There were 13 days where there was an above average amount of animals missing. Of those 13 days, 9 of them corresponded to an earthquake. This means that 70% of the days where there are a large number of missing pets, there is an earthquake THAT day or the day AFTER.


Memphis:
PDF of research

The average number of missing pets in Memphis was 5. There were 11 days where there was an above average amount of animals missing. Of those 11 days, 9 of them corresponded to an earthquake. That means that 82% of the days where there are a large number of missing pets, there is an earthquake THAT day or the day AFTER.


Louisville:
PDF research

The average number of missing pets in Louisville was 7.4 which I bumped up to 8. There were 10 days where there was an above average amount of animals missing. Of those 10 days, 7 of them corresponded to an earthquake. That means that 70% of the days where there are a large number of missing pets, there is an earthquake THAT day or the day AFTER.

Comparing the three cities:
On average, 74% of the days with a large number of missing animals corresponded to an earthquake.

Days occurring in all three cities:
May 21 – two earthquakes, largest earthquake
May 24 – earthquake the following day
May 29 - earthquake the following day
May 30 – one earthquake, smallest earthquake

Moon phases:
May 6 – Full Moon
May 20 – New Moon

There were four days where an earthquake occurred either on the day of a moon phase or one day before/after. Those days are: May 5, May 6, May 20, May 21.


CME's:
May 9
May 14

There was an earthquake May 10th. This is the only day that correlated.


To sum it up, it would appear CMEs have no apparent correlation. The main day to consider here is May 21. On this day, all three cities had an above average number of lost animals. There were two earthquakes on this day. One of the earthquakes was a 2.9 in Upalika,MO, which was the largest earthquake for the month. May 21st was also one day after the new moon.

In my opinion, I find the research interesting and I would like to continue this for June to compare. Please give me your thoughts.

Jim Berkland had the idea that the new moon could cause earthquakes, which is interesting given the amount of earthquakes happening around the new moon in May. The new moon in June will be on the 19th. So...just throwing a prediction out there that there will be another uptake in lost pets and a number of earthquakes in the area around the new moon. Guess we will see!

Interesting research - and time consuming too I'm sure !

Pets could be a good key but why stop there ? Animal anomolies in nature could also provide clues , e.g. strange migratory patterns , mountain lions/wolves/coyotes coming or leaving areas unseasonally - that sort of thing .

I think I've read somewhere - possibly the Etna thread that even ants leaving their hills in droves could provide clues - they are afterall close to the ground and probably more sensitive to small vibrations...

Good luck , would be good to find strong correlations once and for all !

reply to post by slidingdoor


I observed some mass animals deaths for the month but only one occurrence happened and it didn't correspond. I decided to stop looking for them. As far as reports of animals acting strange, honestly I'm not sure where to look for a reputable source that observes these types of things. Do national parks publish these kinds of things?

reply to post by tport17

As far as reports of animals acting strange, honestly I'm not sure where to look for a reputable source that observes these types of things. Do national parks publish these kinds of things?

Thats the difficulty in predictions overall. Even if a bunch of pets go missing and the moon is closest and a heavy rain floods the area it is only an "indicator" of caution not a sound predictor. And how do you be cautious for an earthquake anyway? When it happens you will be ill prepared, believe me. And just as quick it is over. Unlike impending storms or forest fires, there are no advance warnings. Jim Berkland is famous for guessing right pre '89 quake in SF. Not a regular science. On the west coast we get the "predictive" thing all the time, but it doesn't really get our attention anymore. Everyone knows that. You guys out east are new to this thing. Not less than, just inexperienced. You will see that over geological time our whole lives are but eye blinks.

Now Tornado, hurricanes and floods with freakin baseball sized hail? Runnn!!!