What is *THE* domino you're waiting for, and why?

Originally posted by 00nunya00
For those who feel a huge economic collapse is possible and/or inevitable, the biggest questions is when and how the dominoes will fall. There are a lot of vague predictions of when everything goes down, like "watch Spain" or "watch Italy" or whatnot, without much explanation of why that particular domino is such a big deal for the system as a whole.

So my question today is: when you watch for the dominoes to fall, what is the key tipping point in your opinion that will be "the sign the end has come" or the point where things will escalate rapidly, or the point where the average person's wallet will become worthless? We all know we're already in that slow downward spiral that is increasing in speed, but what to you will be the catalyst for the "It's A Wonderful Life" bank run-type moment of panic and realization for everyone?

OK folks, here is the bottom line. The world economy is likely headed for a extremely deep recession or a depression. It is inevitable. One of the largest debt bubbles in world history is popping right this minute with Europe's collapse. US equity markets are in a failed double top or head and shoulders bearish pattern that will wipe out 60% of equity prices. In my opinion, it will all start within the next 2 weeks because of a violent stock market collapse in the United States. Debt based growth and consumption over the last 50 years was so monumental, that it will take 2 decades for the system to flush itself of the debt. It's a natural process, it always has been in history, and it always will be. What's happening has happened dozens of times in history. It just is what it is.

Watch these to videos. These people aren't prophets, they use math and statistics to come to their conclusions. And many people, to include myself who are knowledgeable about stock market and security statistics and technical charts, think the start will be this week. EVERY MAJOR TRADEABLE SECURITY WORLDWIDE is in a technical position for the following things to happen:

1) All 4 major US equity market indexes, to include the Dow-30, S&P500, Nasdaq 100, and Russel 2,000, are statistically prepared for an initial 10% crash that will break through some yearly established statistical technical patterns. After that, medium term trends will establish and a cyclical multi-decade bear market in world equities will begin.

2) Commodities prices, to include gold and silver, are statistically set for a dramatic drop. 70 dollar WTI crude is on the horizon.

3) The United States dollar is bottoming out of a long term trend decline and statistical patterns are setting up for the dollar to rebound on unimaginably record low long term interest rates and an inverted yield curve. The Euro and Yen are toast.

I'm not saying this, the world markets are.

video.cnbc.com...

Let me start by clarifying something. I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor. I am not saying that. The market is saying it.

his mammoth dumping of shares onto the market is coming at the exact moment that global financial markets are teetering on the brink of disaster. Technically and psychologically this market is as weak and poorly positioned to absorb a new float of this size as it could possibly be. As every market across all asset classes breaks major bearish technical levels, as the fundamental news flow accelerates and worsens by the hour, Wall Street if fixated upon "the biggest IPO ever". Few ask why Facebook owners are rushing for the exits now. Few observe that the markets began their current crash on the day of the Carlyle IPO. Even fewer wonder what the potential effect will be of sucking the remaining air out of the room even as the markets gasp for breath.

Many will argue that the price of the 30 Year Treasury Bond is "too high" and that the recent flight of capital to the perceived safety of that market is "irrational" or even "stupid" and that it "must reverse". Right now, the long bond is blasting through the upper resistance band that has contained it for several decades

Day by day, tick by tick, technical event by technical event, the two charts are nearly perfect replicas. Will the fractal echo complete on Friday and Monday? Any long position under these circumstances is sheer folly. And I'm not saying that. The market is saying it. There's an elephant in the room and no one wants to acknowledge it.

facebook IPO may break the Stock Market


The catalyst that is starting the process is the exit of Greece from the Euro. The dominoes are set up and the end of the Euro as a currency has started as individual countries vote out austerity measures, and rightly so. They will bankrupt countries and lead to further collapse.

A half century debt bubble has burst and a decades long deflationary "reset" if you will, is occurring. I have no clue what the end game is. World currency? World war? the return of Jesus? It's gonna be interesting times in the coming years I'm afraid. I don't think things will be as hard as they were during the Great Depression because man kind has developed such a higher level of technology than what people had back then.

You can read my thoughts here.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by 00nunya00
When they announce QE4.

Another "boost" to the US economy also meant to shore up a foundering Euro.

This will devalue the dollar beyond the point of recovery, sending it quickly after th Euro in a downward spiral.

It'll have a negative impact on the dollar, unemployment, the economy.

My 2 Ameros

ETA; didn't see the above post until after I wrote mine, but yeah, what he said as well.

reply to post by Xality


That was one of the most sound replies I have read as of late.
I currently am unable to contribute to this great ATS community as often as I would like to
as I have in the past, but I do check in from time to time.

So on that note, I will commend your contributions and point of view.

Keep Calm and Carry On

reply to post by speculativeoptimist


Hoo Haa! Now that was funny.
Thanks for the chuckle, I needed that!

Its a good question.

While nahahh got a good guess with the price of food being very sensitive, historically prooven.
I dont know wich one could trigger the domino effect exactly, people are so senseless these days.
Their or our reality is the TV. So I guess anything that AC360 says about it lol.

All I know is that its hanging by a fingernail for a while now.
Last christmas, I mentioned about the 2012 election in the U.S. being in a perfect timeline for a perfect storm and I still believe whoever is the next POTUS will most likely spend his time near the famous Fan everyone talks about in SHTF. We gonna get a Teflon kid. Not a grandad that wanna leave a future to his grand children, a Teflon kid.

Originally posted by beezzer
reply to post by 00nunya00

 

When they announce QE4.

A.

This will devalue the dollar beyond the point of recovery

Not gonna happen, at least in the near short term to semi medium term.

Now if this sort of possible dollar strength were coming under the auspices of a strong and improving US economy and rising rates it would be one thing, but when it is likely to come as the 10-year Treasury yield appears likely to go sub-1% as discussed last week, it is an entirely different thing and that is not even a flight to liquidity or safety but a flight of fear as investors essentially give the US government their money for very little return as occurred with shorter Treasurys in 2008 when investors were so scared they basically paid the US government to hold their money through that crisis.

peaktheories.com...

reply to post by Drew99GT


But does this take into account Bernake's approach that loaning money to IMF as well as raising interest rates will "shore up" both Europe's and America's economies?

Caveat; I'm a bit of a newb to fiscal matters, so please excuse my ignorance.

Bernanke is out of ammo and the markets are telling him that. They may try one more round of QE, but that won't work, and it's surley not going to do anything for the political climate in Europe.

Heck, Greece has been the catalyst of world changes like this before!

At some point, all political options fail and the natural course of humanity takes over. I seriously hope I'm wrong, but I didn't come to these conclusions on my own, experts YOU WON'T SEE ON TV have.

The stock market drop might not be such an initial shock because of systems in the computer trading network they've installed to stop another 1,000 point drop in one day. But 200 points a day over a week is still 1,000 points.

Simple. Israel IS going to attack Iran this summer. The rest won't last much longer after that.

Here's your reality for the next 20 years mathematically, unless SOMETHING major stops it. 50% drop in the S&P500 over 20 years.

video.cnbc.com...

Originally posted by KnawLick
Simple. Israel IS going to attack Iran this summer. The rest won't last much longer after that.

And it's that kind of stuff that has me worried. Every major world war over the last, what, century, has occurred from European economic and social instability. Couple that with the whole Iranian situation and all the United States fear mongering. Can we ever get someone sane to control the world?

Thought i'd add that it's not a matter of "if" but a matter of when, the economic monetary system is mathematically flawed and is destined to collapse; it is a mathematical impossibility for our current system to stay the way it is.

But i think any kind of significant 'domino', we will all know what it is, because it will be just that huge.

Originally posted by hawkiye
When the police and military paychecks bounce then the bovine feces will hit the rotating blades...

I like your cant and poetry. lol
What's all the hub bub Bub as they say.
America blossomed after the 1929 crash.

reply to post by Drew99GT


You said it Brother.
The numbers don't lie.

It would be a terrible time to take the hit and do the corrections now,
yet when is it ever a good time to face up to real loss? The chance to nip it in the bud is over.
So no matter what, it will be difficult. The longer this is kicked down the road, the worse the
experience will be. Proper Methods should begin to take place now. Immediately.
Starting Monday. Otherwise, we will truly have a point of no return event.
When that occurs, there will be very few ripcords to pull.
Passengers on the Big Blue Ball will be fighting for parachutes.
The rest will be underground miners for the next century.

They will be awfully pale and grey to the surface they will emerge to,
and forever branded as cowards.

reply to post by 00nunya00

*THE* domino I'm waiting for is the german federal elections in 2013 (probably earlier due to the current coaltion being canceled). Our next elections will be all about the €uroZone and germany's part in it.

As Mr Nigel Farage put it:
"If Germany Said, 'We've Had Enough!', It Would Be the End of the Euro!"
[...] "Don't expect the Germans to bankroll the EU forever they simply wont do it."

(starting @ minute 6:08 in this video)

Originally posted by seaside sky
When China dumps the treasuries and abruptly stops exports to the US- hyperinflation and no more cheap Chinese things in the stores. Interesting to note: many of the tools, machines and parts we use and even the military uses, are made in China these days.

I've thought about this one long and hard, and there are still too many people alive who remember the day when the US was a manufacturing juggernaut. They will know and tell their families that the US can do it again. In fact I just had a flash of the "Rosie the Welder" poster with the word AGAIN! added to the bottom. Rare for me to get stuff like that so maybe that IS what will happen... This revolution, perhaps, will be not a knockback to the stone age, but a voluntary step back to the iron age, with an eye to open source free energy systems.

Nikola Tesla invented an air conditioner that requires no electricity to run. Imagine that! There are now refrigerators and freezers that work on solar radiation, using the evaporative principle. Really, all i need to be happy is AC and a cold beer, so all is well

reply to post by seamus


AC and a Cold Beer.
That would be a great title
for a 20th Century Novel.

Or a Movie.

My 2 cents worth. Watch out for the derivatives market. With the recent admission by JPMorgan, of a loss of several billion in their foreign office, you can bet the total was much more. All the too big to fails have used derivatives to leverage profits to the max. They are all involved, and if one slips, they will all fall. JPMorgan was the first trip up. They won't be the last. What happens in greece, won't stay in greece. Banking is a world problem. The US banks are scared S___ess, that we will have bank runs like they are in greese now. They know that once the confidence is lost here, as it already has in several countries in Europe, the whole ponzie scheme is over. we don't see any stories about the long lines standing in front of the banks to get their daily allowance of Euros, from their local bank.
The drivatives are the glue that holds all the banks together. This glue is melting. The US stock market has, for a long time now, been an unimportant finance instrument. it's just a distraction that our leaders use to keep confidence levels up, and make people think we are in a recovery mode. This entire stock market is just a bunch of programmed trades among the big boys. the public, for the most part is gone from this farce of a true indicator of economic health. So watch the derivatives market, and when you see more and more too big to fails, suffer big derivative market losses, know that the end of our system is close at hand.

A lot of people being shot and news blackouts concerning multiple cities.Or foreign troops patrolling MY AO.