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Originally posted by 00nunya00
For those who feel a huge economic collapse is possible and/or inevitable, the biggest questions is when and how the dominoes will fall. There are a lot of vague predictions of when everything goes down, like "watch Spain" or "watch Italy" or whatnot, without much explanation of why that particular domino is such a big deal for the system as a whole.
So my question today is: when you watch for the dominoes to fall, what is the key tipping point in your opinion that will be "the sign the end has come" or the point where things will escalate rapidly, or the point where the average person's wallet will become worthless? We all know we're already in that slow downward spiral that is increasing in speed, but what to you will be the catalyst for the "It's A Wonderful Life" bank run-type moment of panic and realization for everyone?
Let me start by clarifying something. I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor. I am not saying that. The market is saying it.
his mammoth dumping of shares onto the market is coming at the exact moment that global financial markets are teetering on the brink of disaster. Technically and psychologically this market is as weak and poorly positioned to absorb a new float of this size as it could possibly be. As every market across all asset classes breaks major bearish technical levels, as the fundamental news flow accelerates and worsens by the hour, Wall Street if fixated upon "the biggest IPO ever". Few ask why Facebook owners are rushing for the exits now. Few observe that the markets began their current crash on the day of the Carlyle IPO. Even fewer wonder what the potential effect will be of sucking the remaining air out of the room even as the markets gasp for breath.
Many will argue that the price of the 30 Year Treasury Bond is "too high" and that the recent flight of capital to the perceived safety of that market is "irrational" or even "stupid" and that it "must reverse". Right now, the long bond is blasting through the upper resistance band that has contained it for several decades
Day by day, tick by tick, technical event by technical event, the two charts are nearly perfect replicas. Will the fractal echo complete on Friday and Monday? Any long position under these circumstances is sheer folly. And I'm not saying that. The market is saying it. There's an elephant in the room and no one wants to acknowledge it.
Originally posted by beezzer
reply to post by 00nunya00
When they announce QE4.
This will devalue the dollar beyond the point of recovery
Now if this sort of possible dollar strength were coming under the auspices of a strong and improving US economy and rising rates it would be one thing, but when it is likely to come as the 10-year Treasury yield appears likely to go sub-1% as discussed last week, it is an entirely different thing and that is not even a flight to liquidity or safety but a flight of fear as investors essentially give the US government their money for very little return as occurred with shorter Treasurys in 2008 when investors were so scared they basically paid the US government to hold their money through that crisis.
Originally posted by KnawLick
Simple. Israel IS going to attack Iran this summer. The rest won't last much longer after that.
Originally posted by hawkiye
When the police and military paychecks bounce then the bovine feces will hit the rotating blades...
Originally posted by seaside sky
When China dumps the treasuries and abruptly stops exports to the US- hyperinflation and no more cheap Chinese things in the stores. Interesting to note: many of the tools, machines and parts we use and even the military uses, are made in China these days.