Originally posted by smirkley
Just started watching the Presidential debates, and I observed two things immediately..

1 - Kerry's hands are shaking..

2 - Bush has dry mouth


They seem to both be pretty nervous.

Bush also got skinnier. Probably because all that stress has been burning out his calories lol.

South Florida is a heavily democratic area, so those polling stats aren't that surprising... which gets me to...



I still think the closest parallel, here, is to the 1984 election. Reagan was trailing during the summer, closed the gap -- while facing similar criticisms -- and is universally considered to have 'botched' the first debate. He was over-prepared and, so, sounded like he was always reciting prepared lines and stats... stats he often jumbled.

However, for the second debate, he was deliberately under-prepared. This allowed his natural charisma to come out.

I think a similar thing will happen with Bush. The next couple of debates will be on domestic and social issues. He'll have to defend his job record... but, come on, when it comes to social issues he'll kick ass.

Bush is at his best when he is speaking from the heart and comforting people. Though it is looked down upon by most liberals, when he talks about his personal faith most americans see a man who is sympathetic and decent. In a debate that is focused on social and domestic issues, he'll be able to show that side. I can't even imagine how Kerry will be able to appear warm and morally developed. Look for the partial birth abortion ban and things relating to cloning to become Bush's saving arguments.

The civility of the debate was encouraging. I think the President is at a disadvantage in the first debate because his position is defensive. Kerry has the advantage of being able to criticize the President's performance, while Bush can only criticize Kerry's promises. Kerry sounds like a backseat driving fourteen year old, who always know how better to drive until he actually gets behind the wheel.

I think things will become more balanced as Kerry has to keep banging the same old drum. If Bush is able to speak about the definite plans he has and how the war is stacking up and the inevitability of elections in January, then I think he will begin to gain ground. Bush missed an incredible opportunity to nail Kerry when he repeated the distortion, "I served my country as young man...." If I had been would have reminded the man that he did not defend the nation, but actually sold out his nation and his fellow servicemen. Maybe Bush will nail him when the time comes. Bush is a good deal more astute than most give him credit for.

Tomorrow the Democrats will release a video of Bush's facial expressions to demonstrate his agitation, aloofness and detachment from the issues. The sigh factor of 2000 may become the "smirk factor" for 2004.

[edit on 04/10/1 by GradyPhilpott]

Originally posted by onlyinmydreams



France is an ally?


Anyways, I honestly think Bush will do better during the domestic debate because it might cover social issues... which were always Bush's strong point.

Oh nothing unusual, only the occasional lie or two...or three...or two-hundred.

Originally posted by GradyPhilpott
Bush is a good deal more astute than most give him credit for.

No he's not. The only reason he isn't (and hasn't been) borderline insulting is because that's his schtick. He lets his Republican cronies do the attacking, while the most you ever get out of Bush is some playful jabs. How do you think Bush's likable image would stand up if saw him angry and flustered, spewing venom? It wouldn't. And that's one of his few strong points that endear him to some Americans.

Originally posted by onlyinmydreams
South Florida is a heavily democratic area, so those polling stats aren't that surprising... which gets me to...



I still think the closest parallel, here, is to the 1984 election. Reagan was trailing during the summer, closed the gap -- while facing similar criticisms -- and is universally considered to have 'botched' the first debate. He was over-prepared and, so, sounded like he was always reciting prepared lines and stats... stats he often jumbled.

However, for the second debate, he was deliberately under-prepared. This allowed his natural charisma to come out.

I think a similar thing will happen with Bush. The next couple of debates will be on domestic and social issues. He'll have to defend his job record... but, come on, when it comes to social issues he'll kick ass.

There aren't going to be another 'couple of' debates. Next, Cheney -Edwards (gee, who'll win that?), then Kerry - Bush. Bush has one more shot.

I think, reading here, and watching analysis, what frightens me the most is how many people were impressed by kerry because of his appearance. These debates are to help choose a president, not a poster boy. I honestly don't care if someone is smooth or it they are clumsy; I care what they answer. And while I didnt like several of Bush's answers, it was obvious he actually thought his reply through and that they were honest answers. Kerry just looked like another clinton to me, a smooth-talker who uses that to impress the masses who put appearance before all else. If you choose your canidate for their policies, beliefs, etc., good for you. But if you were one of the many who went on about how smooth and impressive kerry looked, I hope you don't vote, whomever your vote might be for. You're the cancer that is killing america.

Originally posted by saturnine_sweet
I think, reading here, and watching analysis, what frightens me the most is how many people were impressed by kerry because of his appearance. These debates are to help choose a president, not a poster boy. I honestly don't care if someone is smooth or it they are clumsy; I care what they answer. And while I didnt like several of Bush's answers, it was obvious he actually thought his reply through and that they were honest answers. Kerry just looked like another clinton to me, a smooth-talker who uses that to impress the masses who put appearance before all else. If you choose your canidate for their policies, beliefs, etc., good for you. But if you were one of the many who went on about how smooth and impressive kerry looked, I hope you don't vote, whomever your vote might be for. You're the cancer that is killing america.

It's unbelievable the fantasy land some people are living in. ANYONE who tells me that Bush won is f-ing crazy. Kerry was on the offense from the beginning, and he didn't relent. You could see Kerry smirk when Bush opened himself up to attack. He smirked alot. But, good for conservatives. I hope they continue supporting the president when he loses like this. It makes Kerry's job easier, because they lack the perspective and the good judgement to know when their guy got smoked like a pack of Newports.

Bush came across as a simple minded bore, better suited to talking shop outside the local John Deere store. The Bush doctorine of government is like drilling a cavity with a shotgun. You decry Kerry for being nuanced, and I'm literally stunned. We're not electing for the 4-H club president here.
I want to relate to my president, but I don't want to be smarter than him.

Now, spinners can paint any story they would like. I shall take great satisfaction in the look on Ralph Reed's face directly afterwards. He looked like Jesus had just come back as a high priced call girl.

Originally posted by Jazzerman

Originally posted by Zipdot
Kerry's entire time was taken up by world government sayings - "the African Union" "UN this!" "UN that!" "Britfrancermany!"

Its called "education" and "knowledge". Kerry knew exactly what he was talking about, and I personally had no trouble following him. That being said...if you haven't watched presidential debates in, say, the last 20 years you would know they always skirt around the issues. Both Bush and Kerry did it to an extent, but I was quite surprised to see Kerry as poised as he was, and Bush being the aptly named "skirter".

PS- When did Kerry say "Britfancermany"?

[edit on 30-9-2004 by Jazzerman]

I don't know what you're trying to say about knowledge and education. I can't imagine anyone having trouble "following" either of the candidates; they were speaking English. Of course politicians skirt the issues, but good debaters face them. Kerry skirted more than Bush. Like I said, he was asked about a timeline for events in Iraq and his answer did not include any reference to any timeframe or unit of time, he began talking about how the troops need body armor.

Kerry said the phrase "BritainFranceandGermany" like 5 times in one of his answers, it was really funny.

Zip

[edit on 1-10-2004 by Zipdot]