No warning solar storm and an M-5 CME

Title Courtesy of Wrabbit2000

Check out this amazing huge solar flare. I'll try to get a better version but here's a couple of clips of it. Like it came out of no where and just erupted for no reason. Wonder if there's a better video of it, like the beginning of how it started. Going to go look, be back in a bit. Enjoy the short clip though. The point of Origin looks to be one whopping big hole.

Hope it's not aimed at us.





Please tell me the Sun is not wearing a hoodie... That's what it looks like. I hate to say it.

Yeah.... That was a decent one for the chart size too....if this is the trace for it.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


What's weird I can't even find SDO of this erupting, tells me no images.

reply to post by Manhater


Spaceweather is saying this:

RADIATION STORM UNDERWAY: Energetic solar protons are swirling around Earth following an M5-class solar flare from departing sunspot 1476. The sunspot erupted on May 17th around 0130 UT. This radiation storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales, which means it is a moderate event capable of confusing spacecraft imaging systems and causing 'single event upsets' in orbiting electronics. Radiation storm alerts: text, phone.

This just erupted?? That was a FAST mover.

This seemed the spot to insert this... They haven't had a chance to take down the recent forecast yet... Err. Surprise!

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated May 16 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).

Source and a great spot for a lot of other data
Oh..and I DID screenshot the whole page of the site to a PDF to save... That is just something to see an All-Quiet forecast while other displays show a current storm from a CME just a matter of hours ago.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Depends on the 8 minute polar gap?,,,cycle?,,,flucuation?,,,

ya not sure what it is caused by,,either,, (i dont think anyone really knows)
seemed to interest a lot of,, dreamers though,,


Me.

Well, looks like you got first catch on a notable storm (for it's speed) and an M-5 CME. Nice catch! S/F for sure.

Here a couple graphics showing the current readings...

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Well, I guess we won't get affected by it.

I'm in the black zone.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

shhhhhhh

me.

(posted on 17-5-2012 @ 02:05 AM this post
reply to post by NoSoup4U


incomming

M 5+
may be dead on ,,not deflection.

( Shout out,,,, too Solarham,,,thnks,, )

Me

l

I was able to capture the whole thing on Stereo A. This thing is huge....
The first video is Stereo A

The power behind that flare is insane.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


It looked big because it shot off the right limb of the sun (from our perspective) and we get to see it fully side on.

After a CME you get protons firing out at the speed of light.

Which is why we are getting a proton storm almost straight away (8mins).

I doubt we'll get any effects from the CME itself.

reply to post by Chadwickus

Yeah... I figured that too, except the reports are describing a Geomagnetic storm in progress...right now. The instruments are showing it's happening...as we speak and should be for awhile now. All that, following the predictions issues yesterday of Very Low to Low activity through the 19th. Now I pulled up the warning duration charts that show events vs. expected effect time and it's also showing what everything else is.

The funny thing is... I carry all the feeds I posted on my community site. So, I'm checking them 4-6 times a day in a routine run through content to make sure all is well with site function. So I can confirm the fact nothing was suggesting anything on a storm, the way Spaceweather.com is saying is in-progress and from the 17, May CME, just a few hours ago.

Now in fairness...what I was seeing didn't appear to show instant arrival. More like 5-6 hours.... However, that's still a screamer... Unless, everything that is saying this IS a storm from the CME hours ago are wrong. If so, it'll be interesting since I've been PDF saving every page I've come across on Gov't based Solar weather data since finding this happened. It's a pretty even mix to those that don't even show a thing has happened....to those that are showing the M-5 and a storm in-progress, That alone is kinda odd and something I'm not used to seeing hours after an event has begun.. Middle of the night is one explanation, but the sites tracking are world wide, not just the U.S...and same mix of those showing and those not. Oh well... Just different.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Do you use or link feed to this site?

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

This is a near real time feed...or as close as you can get when looking at the sun from earth orbit.

They also have a one minute X-ray flux feed.

The problem with sites like spaceweather and the like is that their updates and alerts have to be typed in by someone and I don't think there is always someone monitoring 24/7.

www.spacewx.com...

A site I check lots of almost real time data and lots of information.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

 

Do you use or link feed to this site?

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

This is a near real time feed...or as close as you can get when looking at the sun from earth orbit.

They also have a one minute X-ray flux feed.

The problem with sites like spaceweather and the like is that their updates and alerts have to be typed in by someone and I don't think there is always someone monitoring 24/7.

Yeah, as a matter of fact, that's exactly where it's drawn from. It look me quite some time to get it all working right and flowing as a reliable thing day in and day out without failure on any of it but I use direct sourcing for my feeds. All things space come from NOAA Space Weather data, NASA or JPL. Likewise, all things Earth related (quakes and such) are from USGS or it's equiv in Australia and Europe. It's all quite a headache to get coordinated the first time through but nice as a finished set up.

BTW... I refer to my site here and there and I don't mean to make it sound like I'm off running the next CNN or RSOE. It's nothing remotely close to that. I don't link it for respect issues to ATS (I don't pimp my own sites anywhere I'm at on personal principle) but as much because it is a humble little community site. I've watched numerous sites get linked out of a story here just to see them 404 and crash entirely within the hour for traffic volume. lol... Talk about mixed blessings.. At the same time..Heck, I have put an enormous amount of time into perfecting my little corner of cyberspace for RSS and real time data feeds..and it's sure nice to share some of that on threads like this, when it fits.

@ Donlashway

Hey THANKS for that link! There are at least 4 displays under Galactic and Terrestrial I hadn't seen laid out like that before. You've given me a couple new pages to build on my site tonight. Every time I think I'm done and have all I can call useful for quick reference displays...someone pops up with a whole new set with at least a couple I'd never seen before.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

Yeah... I figured that too, except the reports are describing a Geomagnetic storm in progress

I don't know what reports you were looking at but there was no geomagnetic storm. The magnetometer trace you showed doesn't really show much of anything. At the time the Kp index was 4. That is not a storm. The D-Region Asborbtion prediction chart shows absolutely normal diurnal characteristics.

The slight geomagnetic activity you noted was the result of a solar sector boundary crossing, not from any particular solar activity.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Interesting......

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

 

Yeah... I figured that too, except the reports are describing a Geomagnetic storm in progress

I don't know what reports you were looking at but there was no geomagnetic storm. The magnetometer trace you showed doesn't really show much of anything. At the time the Kp index was 4. That is not a storm. The D-Region Asborbtion prediction chart shows absolutely normal diurnal characteristics.

The slight geomagnetic activity you noted was the result of a solar sector boundary crossing, not from any particular solar activity.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

edit on 5/18/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

I won't argue what you're saying. I went by what Spaceweather, RF Interference maps of the sun side of Earth were showing at that time.....and hadn't been a while before that...and the NOAA Space Weather pages.

Regardless, it was a little M-5 in the end, so a visually impressive thing but no real threat to much in the worst condition. I noticed ISS went on with their normal docking procedure as well, so NASA obviously wasn't too terribly concerned.

It's not like I've been watching this stuff for 20 years either. In reality, I've only been watching this regularly for about 9 months and really gave any thought to the sun as more than a source of light for a bit over a year. The speed this suggested didn't make much sense...but no one seemed to be around for more info, what those sites supposedly in authority couldn't even agree if an event happened in the first place. .

Anyway Phage, in all honesty, you have always presented yourself as someone who is close to or IN this particular field of work. This would be more a moment to observe and learn than argue and ignore for me. If I badly misinterpreted things (Which it sounds like I may have here) then I'll admit, I screwed the pooch.

the flare in question came from sunspot ar 1476.the one they said was of no threat anymore because it was decaying and didnt habor the energy to produce any signifigent flaresguess they were wrong on that one tooand spaceweather updated and we are supposed to get a glancing blow from this.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

It isn't an argument.
It was a correction.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

 

It isn't an argument.
It was a correction.

Indeed... noted and appreciated.
2nd