"What If" Scenario: Major Hurricane heads for Tampa Bay, FL during Republican National Convention

My local news channel (News Channel 8 NBC) ran a story regarding "what if" a major hurricane were to make landfall in the Tampa Bay area during the Republican National Convention and any proposed contingency plans made.

There will be oodles of people in the Tampa Bay area during the Republican National Convention, everyone from delegates and their staff, supporters, protesters, lookieloos, etc. so an evacuation would be unprecedented to say the least if this scenario were to play out. In the report they were not given specifics regarding any contingency plan regarding this scenario. They reported that there would be approximately 331 buses if they had to evacuate delegates and staff. I would presume the rest would be on their own.

The following are a few links, media, and excerpts I put together that puts this "what if" into perspective.

Here is a direct link to the story:
Tampa 2012 GOP convention planners prepare for slight chance of hurricane

TAMPA — As he looks ahead to hosting next year's Republican National Convention, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn is upbeat, but blunt.

"The only thing that could make our life miserable is a hurricane," he said last week.

That's possible, but not likely.

The chance of a hurricane hitting Tampa Bay the week of the convention are probably less than 1 percent, a National Hurricane Center scientist estimates.

Funny that, because just a few months ago they were telling a different story, Bold emphasis added to excerpt.

2012 hurricane forecast released

ORLANDO, Florida (WKMG) - Colorado State University forecasters predict up to 15 named storms will form during the 2012 hurricane season.

The university released its annual hurricane season forecast on Wednesday. University forecasters have released the annual report for the last three decades. According to the report, there is a 45 percent chance for an above-average hurricane season in 2012. Typically, that means 12 to 15 named storms will form between June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters expect seven to nine of those named storms to become hurricanes, with three to four of them categorized as major hurricanes. Any storm category 3 and above is considered a major hurricane.The major factor that helps university forecasters create their annual report is Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC).

"When THC is stronger than normal, the tropical Atlantic [is] typically more conducive for hurricane formation and intensification," forecasters said.

Here is a video that gives a better visual of this:

Youtube Video Description:

The abnormally cool water temperatures of the Pacific's eastern equatorial region are now warming back to "normal." This "ENSO-neutral" stage could steer more hurricanes into the Gulf making 2012's Hurricane Season from Texas to Florida, potentially rougher than last.

Tampa Bay has not had a direct hit from a major storm since 1921, hurricane experts are usually intent on trying to remind locals of this fact, more what the outcome would be. Here is an excerpt that may put it into some perspective, from this article in 2009:

Hurricane watchers to emphasize storm surge danger

Emergency officials have long used the battle cry "run from the water, hide from the wind" to drive home dire warnings of storm surge.

Too many people still don't get it.

Many have become conditioned, and at times comforted, by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which predicts potential damage based on wind levels. Emergency officials have devised charts showing shingles blowing off roofs and palm trees bending as winds increase.

But that's not enough, hurricane experts now say. People need to worry about storm surge first, storm category second — especially in the Tampa Bay area, which hasn't had a direct hit by a hurricane since 1921.

So this year, the National Hurricane Center is removing all storm surge and flooding values from its Saffir-Simpson scale. Researchers are working to create a separate storm surge warning that's easy for the public to digest.

Forecasters will start using words like "inundation" and "probabilistic storm surge" in their advisories.

All you really need to know, said Hillsborough County emergency management director Larry Gispert, is that if a hurricane comes here, "we're all going to be in the same bathtub."

To get an idea of how this scenario would play out, Hurricane Phoenix is a good model.

Hurricane Phoenix: The Tampa Bay Region's Worst Case Scenario

Hurricane Phoenix

Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan scenario Information and Consequences Report (PDF)

This report describes the simulated evolution of Hurricane Phoenix and outlines the results from FEMA's disaster loss-estimation model, which measures the devastating effects of the simulated catastrophe on the Tampa Bay region's people, buildings, infrastructure, economy, and social systems.

The RNC begins Monday, August 27, 2012, and ends Thursday, August 30, 2012, which by the 2012 hurricane season, which begins respectively June 1, 2012 and ends respectively on November 30, 2012. By my calculations that's pretty much the middle of hurricane season.

However, there are indeed other sources of predictions that tout a tame hurricane season for 2012 so the "slight chance" may hold water (no pun intended).

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season should be relatively tame with a total of 12 named storms and seven hurricanes

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU’s December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting …forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill. They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.

Three hurricanes are expected to be « major » with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, with Category 3 or greater status on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale, Weather Services International (WSI) said in its early pre-season forecast.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends November 30 and 2011 saw a total of 19 named or tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

The interesting part, is the hush hush regarding any contingency plans if the scenario were to play out, security reasons I suppose.

Time will tell.

My prediction, Uber, is that if a hurricane happens during the RNC, many ATS members will blame HAARP.

Nice presentation.

All I can say,if that happened it will doing us a huge favor in so many ways then one.

I must edit: It would not be good for the locals,well,unless you think of jobs created.
If you think about it,natural disasters are a big boom to the economy locally.

Sure,it's bad when you lose your home.Or lives of people.

reply to post by kdog1982


Yeah, the home construction industry would reap quite a reward. I was a part of a 501 c3 (non-profit) program after the 2004 hurricanes in Polk County that used state funding to install hurricane shutters on low income home-owners that qualified based on certain criteria, called Rebuild Polk After Disaster.

Although it is not my lifetime skill set, I am also skilled in roofing believe it or not, and made bookoo bucks with all the re-roofs after the hurricanes with a local established roofing company in Polk County.

So indeed, out of disaster does come benefit to a number of industries. However, I would be remiss if i didn't make mention of all the unlicensed contractors that try to swoop in and swipe a lot of profits from local companies, definitely recommended to research the one's doing any work should a hurricane of that magnitude require the need for such construction.

I'd dance a jig.

Originally posted by freakjive
My prediction, Uber, is that if a hurricane happens during the RNC, many ATS members will blame HAARP.

That is one prediction that I would actually bet money on

reply to post by UberL33t


The good thing about Hurricanes is that they travel fairly slowly and come from a long distance away.

I would think if in the weeks before the convention if there is even a slight chance of a hurrican, they will start scrambling to set up an alternate location just in case. I doubt they would wait until the last minute and allow all the delegates to actually get to Tampa and then having them try to get out.

It could be a big mess for them if it happens.

Originally posted by hottoboggan
I'd dance a jig.

You must be in the construction industry

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


According to the televised report mentioned in the OP people have already been arriving and will continue to as it draws closer. That was actually one of the points raised, where exactly is the location of the RNC in the event this scenario played out. Apparently the answer to that question wasn't given by TPTB in charge of the RNC.

By any chance would the convention be happening during say Hurricane Season?

That would explain why they would be preparing for one in case it actually happens. You never know what that gulf might throw at you.

Originally posted by tsurfer2000h
By any chance would the convention be happening during say Hurricane Season?

That would explain why they would be preparing for one in case it actually happens. You never know what that gulf might throw at you.

Yes, during the middle of hurricane season (roughly) as mentioned in the OP. It remains to be seen what the gulf will throw...but Tampa Bay is overdue some would argue.

Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by UberL33t

 

The good thing about Hurricanes is that they travel fairly slowly and come from a long distance away.

I would think if in the weeks before the convention if there is even a slight chance of a hurrican, they will start scrambling to set up an alternate location just in case. I doubt they would wait until the last minute and allow all the delegates to actually get to Tampa and then having them try to get out.

It could be a big mess for them if it happens.

That, and the fact delegates pay for all their own travel and lodging. Somebody would probably step in to help out financially, but something to think about I guess.