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TAMPA — As he looks ahead to hosting next year's Republican National Convention, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn is upbeat, but blunt.
"The only thing that could make our life miserable is a hurricane," he said last week.
That's possible, but not likely.
The chance of a hurricane hitting Tampa Bay the week of the convention are probably less than 1 percent, a National Hurricane Center scientist estimates.
ORLANDO, Florida (WKMG) - Colorado State University forecasters predict up to 15 named storms will form during the 2012 hurricane season.
The university released its annual hurricane season forecast on Wednesday. University forecasters have released the annual report for the last three decades. According to the report, there is a 45 percent chance for an above-average hurricane season in 2012. Typically, that means 12 to 15 named storms will form between June 1 to November 30.
Forecasters expect seven to nine of those named storms to become hurricanes, with three to four of them categorized as major hurricanes. Any storm category 3 and above is considered a major hurricane.The major factor that helps university forecasters create their annual report is Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC).
"When THC is stronger than normal, the tropical Atlantic [is] typically more conducive for hurricane formation and intensification," forecasters said.
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The abnormally cool water temperatures of the Pacific's eastern equatorial region are now warming back to "normal." This "ENSO-neutral" stage could steer more hurricanes into the Gulf making 2012's Hurricane Season from Texas to Florida, potentially rougher than last.
Emergency officials have long used the battle cry "run from the water, hide from the wind" to drive home dire warnings of storm surge.
Too many people still don't get it.
Many have become conditioned, and at times comforted, by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which predicts potential damage based on wind levels. Emergency officials have devised charts showing shingles blowing off roofs and palm trees bending as winds increase.
But that's not enough, hurricane experts now say. People need to worry about storm surge first, storm category second — especially in the Tampa Bay area, which hasn't had a direct hit by a hurricane since 1921.
So this year, the National Hurricane Center is removing all storm surge and flooding values from its Saffir-Simpson scale. Researchers are working to create a separate storm surge warning that's easy for the public to digest.
Forecasters will start using words like "inundation" and "probabilistic storm surge" in their advisories.
All you really need to know, said Hillsborough County emergency management director Larry Gispert, is that if a hurricane comes here, "we're all going to be in the same bathtub."
Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan scenario Information and Consequences Report (PDF)
This report describes the simulated evolution of Hurricane Phoenix and outlines the results from FEMA's disaster loss-estimation model, which measures the devastating effects of the simulated catastrophe on the Tampa Bay region's people, buildings, infrastructure, economy, and social systems.
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU’s December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting …forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill. They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.
Three hurricanes are expected to be « major » with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, with Category 3 or greater status on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale, Weather Services International (WSI) said in its early pre-season forecast.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends November 30 and 2011 saw a total of 19 named or tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Originally posted by freakjive
My prediction, Uber, is that if a hurricane happens during the RNC, many ATS members will blame HAARP.
Originally posted by hottoboggan
I'd dance a jig.
Originally posted by tsurfer2000h
By any chance would the convention be happening during say Hurricane Season?
That would explain why they would be preparing for one in case it actually happens. You never know what that gulf might throw at you.
Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by UberL33t
The good thing about Hurricanes is that they travel fairly slowly and come from a long distance away.
I would think if in the weeks before the convention if there is even a slight chance of a hurrican, they will start scrambling to set up an alternate location just in case. I doubt they would wait until the last minute and allow all the delegates to actually get to Tampa and then having them try to get out.
It could be a big mess for them if it happens.