China warns Philippines over South China sea

reply to post by DiscoStew


It does, but then again, China and the Philippines have signed agreements to cooperate with one another, meaning they'd respect each other's right to the South sea, but now the Chinese are obviously reconsidering that.

China-Philippines Relations

Joint Statement Between China and the Philippines on the Framework of Bilateral Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century

The question lies in whether the US feels it's worth holding their part of the agreement when it comes down to a conflict. I'm not so sure it is.

reply to post by satron


Yeah, I would have to a agree. It is probably a good idea to gauge China's naval capabilities now than later. At present, the US seems to have the upper hand. That won't last forever, and China is making earnest attempts to bridge the gap in the coming years and decades. Their defense budget continues to increase each year as well.

To call their bluff is a risky move both military and economically, because of commerce, hot spots like Taiwan and North Korea, other territorial disputes, and debt issues. A protracted, but controlled response would be in order. In other words, get all the eggs in a row and start poking and prodding. It seems China is in the process of taking that approach in regards to the US, their allies, and neighbors in the region.

reply to post by Jakes51

At present, the US seems to have the upper hand. That won't last forever, and China is making earnest attempts to bridge the gap in the coming years and decades.

Disregarding the quality, training/experience, and capability of given ships... China will take at least ten years of serious military ship manufacturing to catch the U.S. in terms of naval presence in the theater - let alone on a global scale.

In a more realistic comparison - they are 25-35 years from being able to match our current Naval capability and force.

There isn't really a comparison, to be honest.

To call their bluff is a risky move both military and economically, because of commerce, hot spots like Taiwan and North Korea, other territorial disputes, and debt issues.

We will call their bluff. Unless China reverses 30 years of diplomatic history by admitting their own bluff.

Their bluff, this time, is that they will take an -offensive- military action. That is a departure from the past - where they would claim to "respond to U.S. presence" and other similar actions that amounted to putting on a "tough guy" mask.

Historically, they won't back down from their bluff until their arm gets twisted. And it's going to backfire on them, horribly. Their Navy will steam forward with all the confidence they have been trained to have - saying "yes sir" to please their chain of command in spite of the obvious errors (a cultural problem that plagues their entire industry).

They'll go in unprepared and overconfident. They'll be slaughtered by our vanguard and while that single event won't trigger a social revolution in China - it will trigger what is already in the wings.

Reading some of the reports out of China, right now... I'm absolutely stunned how "The Bear and The Dragon" reads like prophecy. China's (hidden) bankrupt status; great social unrest with state action against missionaries triggering national and international outcry; China's starvation for resources to the extent they are willing to pick a military target.

The key exception is that Clancy's novel had China pushing up into Russia for the oil and gold under the assumption that the Russians would just as soon abandon the region than struggle to fight a costly war. ... But they didn't count on Russia joining NATO (one of his plot points I've been looking to see signs of in the real world) and getting gang-raped in the end.

And that's actually a reality for China, here. They have a lot of neighbors that are not going to be sitting by idly while China forcibly expands its influence. India and Russia both have strained relations with China (the T-50/PAK-FA program is a perfect example of this under-publicized schism).

Australia, Japan, and Korea will not be turning a blind eye, either. I believe... I can never spell his name... starts with an X... anyway - he pointed it out earlier.

India easily rivals China in terms of military capability. Worse - they can draw China into a land campaign - which will end up being very costly to both nations (more so than a naval conflict China would encounter with other nations). China just doesn't have much to speak of in terms of force projection. India is right next door and match China Zerg-for-Zerg.

Though China does have an excessive young male population.... so that may actually turn out to be a beneficial move for them in the long run.

reply to post by Aim64C


Great analysis! I tend to agree with much of your assessments. However, I would not underestimate China either. Their style of warfare is quite different from what we consider as normal in the West. In a naval engagement, I have no doubt that we would give China a thrashing. What will be the fallout from such an event? Are there adequate contingency measures in affect to stave off regional if not global disaster?

They could move on Taiwan? Fan the flames in North Korea. Use their armies of hackers to disrupt the power grid in the US and their installations in the Pacific.Of course, we must consider nuclear weapons as well. We must also consider the economic ramifications which will be as serious for the US as it is for China. I tend to think of the Chinese as being probably some of the most clever adversaries the US is ever going to encounter. Check this out.

Assassin's Mace

Assassin's Mace or "Shashou Jian" is a term used in ancient Chinese strategy. This exotic-sounding term has its roots in ancient Chinese folklore, which recounts how a hero wielding such a weapon managed to overcome a far more powerful adversary. "Shashou Jian" was a club with which the "assassin" incapacitated his enemy, suddenly and totally, instead of fighting him according to "the rules."

Since then, it has come to mean in Chinese military strategy the capacity to rapidly and decisively seize the initiative and turn the tide to one’s advantage when confronting a conventionally superior foe.

Something to think about? Thanks for the awesome reply!

Looks like China is reaching a bit here.....




Source:
www.bbc.co.uk...

reply to post by Jakes51


Tiawan is a wildcard.... If hostilities do break out its entirely possible China might decide to settle into the all or nothing mindset while at the same time opting to settle all of the outstanding claims they have. By going just after the Phillipines, China would be demonstrating how they will resolve the issues. The consequence of doing that is a massive military buildup by the other affected nations as well as alliances / defene pacts being signed (which is already occuring - Phillipines, Vietnam etc etc).

China would not get another chance to strike. They would almost suredly have sanctions / embargos placed on them which they would most likely not recover from (the government of Chicom).

The onlything that has prevented a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is their lack of force projection. China does not have enough naval or air assets to pull off a successful invasion. They simply do not have the lift capacity to get the needed number of troops / equipment in theatre before Taiwan / allied forces could react.

The lack of projection is the main reason there are so many surface to surface missiles in the Chinese Fujain province.

If it kicks off China will be full in with no real possibilities other than accomplishing their goals / claims or being destroyed in the attempt.

reply to post by DiscoStew

Check out wikipedia for chinese land / water claims. They have a lot of claims on their Western borders - India / Afghanistan / Nepal / Bhutan as well as land in the kerplakistan countries. Hell China occupies a part of Kashmir

reply to post by Aim64C

While the doctrine of quantity over quality failed for the Russian, I think in this case it would work for the Chinese.


The other red flag regarding China is their most recent land claim - The Arctic

RE: Bear and the Dragon comment.
You are spot on.. A lot of what appears in that trilogy is present, from cyber attacks on the Stock Market, to pitting nations against nations, right down to the mindset of the politbureau. When 9/11 occurred it threw the country into chaos. A short time later we get the anthrax letters (ebola in executive orders). The assasination of Hussein followed up with Iran absorbing Iraq (United Islamic Republic).

Honestly I would prefer to bring Taiwan back to their UN seat while recognizing them as an independent sovereign nation.

reply to post by Jakes51

What will be the fallout from such an event?

As Xcathdra already said, China would pretty much shoot their load.

The only way they really stand a chance of holding a claim to the Philippines or Taiwan is if they can arrest control and entrench. At that point - the military action necessary to remove China from that area would end up causing a lot of collateral damage and result in a costly nation-building campaign afterwards (think South Korea... turned out to be a beneficial relationship in the long run - but it was not due to cheap investment on our part).

Of course - they will also be hit with sanctions and possibly even embargoes very quickly. China's economy is -very- dependent upon imported materials. Many of their natural resources of are relatively poor quality (from an industrial standpoint). Their coal is #, their ores are very impure... they simply can't support their economy in the isolation they would be choosing.

They would have to be very industrious and downright ingenious to make it work out well for them.

It would really be one of the better outcomes available to them if we absolutely crush them at sea. At that point - they wouldn't even have the means to be stubborn about the issue and cling to military action in spite of sanctions. Sanctions would force them into diplomacy very rapidly from that point - where they will likely be very pissed... but have been clearly shown that we carry the bigger stick.

Are there adequate contingency measures in affect to stave off regional if not global disaster?

Honestly, I'm not sure on that one.

Even if I did - I'd be limited what I could say about them due to Operational Security concerns. The military tends to be either prepared to the point of pathological paranoia or pathologically negligent... so I can see them having a set of contingency plans for this... or being caught completely flat-footed.

I think, though, that China is being given very serious regard in terms of their diplomatic, economic, and military status. Our mobilizing additional units to Australia and Korea underpins that argument. They have enough logistical support teams in the region to support a fairly large strategic deployment.

Of course... you're going to see the manpower draw-down reverse direction over-night if things come to blows with China (and, more than likely, due to coincidence or someone's design - Iran would likely choose that time to push the boundaries). I have a feeling that life for the reservists is going to get very interesting.

They could move on Taiwan?

If they're insane enough to make a move on the Philippines ... they're insane enough to think they can take Taiwan while they're at it.

At least the more athletic of them have a slim chance of being able to swim across to storm the beach.

Fan the flames in North Korea.

South Korea is home to key Naval facilities in the region. They also are the world's only manufacturer of triple-hulled oil tankers.

From a strategic standpoint - seizing South Korea in a manner in which to exploit their industry would boost their prospect for developing a Navy.

That, however, would not be very wise for them to attempt.

Use their armies of hackers to disrupt the power grid in the US and their installations in the Pacific.

Pure Hollyweird. I know - there are people who say otherwise. They're wrong.

Of course, we must consider nuclear weapons as well.

Strategically, China is a non-issue nuclear power. Over 80% of their very small arsenal is limited to ranges that allow them to strike India and parts of Russia.

They have about 20 total delivery systems with range to strike the U.S. proper. Damages, from a fully successful barrage (very unlikely), would be less than that of your average Hurricane.

Realistically, those missiles will never fire. Won't get into too detailed of an explanation for why... but there are many ways to skin that cat.

I tend to think of the Chinese as being probably some of the most clever adversaries the US is ever going to encounter. Check this out.

The main thing that makes China a Paper Tiger at present is their impatience and overconfidence. They imbue nationalism to the point where it is damaging - where they believe everything China to be better by virtue, alone.

They are very capable and crafty... but right now they are simply too big for their britches.

Something to think about?

They will likely try a multilateral push for Taiwan and the Philippines (probably a token force for the Philippines) while instigating an offensive from North Korea.

Not that it will be effective - but they'll be sure to create plenty of targets, I have no doubt.

reply to post by Aim64C


Weirder things have happened -

Operation War plan red - Contingency plans to go to war with Canada and the UK - declassified in 1974

There are also plans for an invasion of Quebec should they secede...

Out of curiosity does anyone know where Chinas arctic claims are coming from?

China warns Philippines over South China sea

'Bout damned time this story got some airing...

China... dearly beloved (formerly red) China is getting ready to stomp the guts of the Philippines over a small patch of water because... oil?

Oh, wait a minute! The Falkland Islands are on the verge as well and the world trounce the UK. But China gets off scott free. The situation is similar, though not identical... but still and all...

Noting here also that IF this resorts to a shooting war, the US is bound by treaty to come to the aid of the Filipinos... but I'll wager dimes to daggers that the political mudpipes will begin singing here on behalf of China, condemning the US, the moment it begins... the same mudpipes that lance England over the Falklands...

Funny how that works.

No wonder they are starting to send US troops to the Philippines and Australia.

I've just taken a look at the map where it shows China's 'Claimed' sea border territory.
Just look at it! They seem to think it's ok to stretch right up to the doorstep of Indonesia, Brunei and the PI!

Is it any wonder the Phillipines are taking an issue with this!

The Chinese ptb should back off and keep churning out their junk before they start something they regret later....