reply to post by Jakes51
What will be the fallout from such an event?
As Xcathdra already said, China would pretty much shoot their load.
The only way they really stand a chance of holding a claim to the Philippines or Taiwan is if they can arrest control and entrench. At that point -
the military action necessary to remove China from that area would end up causing a lot of collateral damage and result in a costly nation-building
campaign afterwards (think South Korea... turned out to be a beneficial relationship in the long run - but it was not due to cheap investment on our
Of course - they will also be hit with sanctions and possibly even embargoes very quickly. China's economy is -very- dependent upon imported
materials. Many of their natural resources of are relatively poor quality (from an industrial standpoint). Their coal is #, their ores are very
impure... they simply can't support their economy in the isolation they would be choosing.
They would have to be very industrious and downright ingenious to make it work out well for them.
It would really be one of the better outcomes available to them if we absolutely crush them at sea. At that point - they wouldn't even have the
means to be stubborn about the issue and cling to military action in spite of sanctions. Sanctions would force them into diplomacy very rapidly from
that point - where they will likely be very pissed... but have been clearly shown that we carry the bigger stick.
Are there adequate contingency measures in affect to stave off regional if not global disaster?
Honestly, I'm not sure on that one.
Even if I did - I'd be limited what I could say about them due to Operational Security concerns. The military tends to be either prepared to the
point of pathological paranoia or pathologically negligent... so I can see them having a set of contingency plans for this... or being caught
I think, though, that China is being given very serious regard in terms of their diplomatic, economic, and military status. Our mobilizing additional
units to Australia and Korea underpins that argument. They have enough logistical support teams in the region to support a fairly large strategic
Of course... you're going to see the manpower draw-down reverse direction over-night if things come to blows with China (and, more than likely, due
to coincidence or someone's design - Iran would likely choose that time to push the boundaries). I have a feeling that life for the reservists is
going to get very interesting.
They could move on Taiwan?
If they're insane enough to make a move on the Philippines ... they're insane enough to think they can take Taiwan while they're at it.
At least the more athletic of them have a slim chance of being able to swim across to storm the beach.
Fan the flames in North Korea.
South Korea is home to key Naval facilities in the region. They also are the world's only manufacturer of triple-hulled oil tankers.
From a strategic standpoint - seizing South Korea in a manner in which to exploit their industry would boost their prospect for developing a Navy.
That, however, would not be very wise for them to attempt.
Use their armies of hackers to disrupt the power grid in the US and their installations in the Pacific.
Pure Hollyweird. I know - there are people who say otherwise. They're wrong.
Of course, we must consider nuclear weapons as well.
Strategically, China is a non-issue nuclear power. Over 80% of their very small arsenal is limited to ranges that allow them to strike India and
parts of Russia.
They have about 20 total delivery systems with range to strike the U.S. proper. Damages, from a fully successful barrage (very unlikely), would be
less than that of your average Hurricane.
Realistically, those missiles will never fire. Won't get into too detailed of an explanation for why... but there are many ways to skin that cat.
I tend to think of the Chinese as being probably some of the most clever adversaries the US is ever going to encounter. Check this out.
The main thing that makes China a Paper Tiger at present is their impatience and overconfidence. They imbue nationalism to the point where it is
damaging - where they believe everything China to be better by virtue, alone.
They are very capable and crafty... but right now they are simply too big for their britches.
Something to think about?
They will likely try a multilateral push for Taiwan and the Philippines (probably a token force for the Philippines) while instigating an offensive
from North Korea.
Not that it will be effective - but they'll be sure to create plenty of targets, I have no doubt.