China warns Philippines over South China sea

China warns Philippines over South China sea

www.dailytimes.com.pk

* Beijing tells citizens they are not safe in Philippines

* Chinese travel agencies suspend tours to Philippines under government orders

MANILA: China told its citizens Thursday they were not safe in the Philippines and its state media warned of war, as a month-long row over rival claims in the South China Sea threatened to spill out of control.

(visit the link for the full news article)


Related News Links:
www.telegraph.co.uk
Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
China Warns U.S. To Stay Out Of Sea Dispute

Looks pretty tense over there right now. This could be the moment that China takes to show off it's prowess to the world. China has warned the US to stay out of it's conflicts in the past, and I think the US will take that advice if China did decide to take action.

China will not have any problems, taking what they want, besides problems with experience. Now they could gain it.

www.dailytimes.com.pk
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by satron

China has warned the US to stay out of it's conflicts in the past, and I think the US will take that advice if China did decide to take action.

Their Navy will be but an oil slick on the South China Sea, if they decide to try and # with the Phillippines.

China should not be underestimated in their potential to be a global military superpower... but they still need to learn their place. That place is several rungs down from us on the ladder of military capability.

They will either figure that out on their own - or be taught. Either way - the only option for China is to learn to play nice with the U.S. ... Or we'll hem them up faster than they can blink an eye.

reply to post by Aim64C


we dont want a WAR with China... we would lose all that Cheap labor.. and China owns a lot of US debt.. and land/farms/gold.... we would let them TAKE the Philippians...

reply to post by Aim64C


Stop projecting.

Or we'll hem them up faster than they can blink an eye.

You will not hem their military, the army or navy of your country will. Also, I am just assuming this, but you most likely are projecting the United State's navy as you refere to it and your self as "we'll". The States wouldnt dare touch China as most of the dept the US is in, is owed to the Chinese.

reply to post by AaronWilson


agree with you AW.. but i think you mis-pelled DEBT..lol


yes China OWNS a lot of USA loans...

In serving their own interests first the Philippines will come after China in terms of importance.
USA will be more than happy to sell them more more military hardware though
Good luck Philippines. China will loose the war but win this battle.

reply to post by darrman

we dont want a WAR with China...

You're right. We don't.

China, however, wants a war with us.

Don't get me wrong - they don't want to shoot at us. They simply want to be combative in their attempts to gain more resources and market dominance.

They are playing poker. They are holding a mediocre hand and are partially deluded in thinking it is one of the better hands at the table. They are going to try and bluff us into folding.

we would lose all that Cheap labor

India
Africa
South American countries.

All of which are better long-term options. India already has considerable industrial assets and could follow up on many of our needs.

Ironically - the Philippines are also a good candidate for investing in industrial growth. The main problem involves their governments' insistence upon manual labor over training machine operators (governments tend to be more stable when employment is high... getting them to agree to machines is a challenge).

and China owns a lot of US debt..

Another person brought it up... and it actually restored a bit of my faith in there being -someone- with a brain in an office.

When China announced they would replace the dollar as the reserve currency... we started going bonkers with spending (in more ways than one) and inflated our prices. The small amount of U.S. debt that China owns is fairly small.

A damned brilliant move... aside from the problems its causing back home - but those can be remedied. And, in the mean time, we are the ones who hold the economic sword of Damocles over China.

we would let them TAKE the Philippians...

No. We wouldn't.

You don't understand how ideological and principled the U.S. can be.

Which is the mistake China will ultimately end up making - and it will destroy their country. It may not be over the Philippines. It may not be over Taiwan. However; China will over-estimate how intimidating they actually are while not taking into account how principled the U.S. can be.

There are a lot of Philippinos in the U.S. (and they practically run WESPAC Navy... try making rank if you aren't on friendly terms with their clique/mafia). The U.S. public will scream bloody murder over the issue - and... while I have no specific information... I would hazard a guess that theater ROE would have our naval assets open up on any ship identified as hostile to the Philippines.

The President and/or Congress would have to actively change the policy as people's TVs displayed images of Chinese amphibious assault ships sailing across the ocean for a day or two before making land-fall on various islands within the Philippines.

The great thing about a naval war with China is that we'll break all of their toys, shut down their shipping lanes for a week or so, and let them squirm until they are ready to come to the table.

Tom Clancy worded it perfectly in a book of his: "Your dicks aren't big enough to get into a pissing contest with us." (A U.S. "diplomat" speaking to a Chinese "diplomat").

That pretty much sums up China in every regard on this issue.

reply to post by AaronWilson

You will not hem their military, the army or navy of your country will.

[Aim-64C], Petty Officer 2nd Class, USN.

The States wouldnt dare touch China as most of the dept the US is in, is owed to the Chinese.

There's a roflcopter flying outside the barracks, right now.

usgovinfo.about.com...

Foreign governments hold about 46 percent of all U.S. debt held by the public, more than $4.5 trillion. The largest foreign holder of U.S. debt is China, which owns more about $1.2 trillion in bills, notes and bonds, according to the Treasury.

Hmm... I know 4 in 10 of all Americans... a majority... hate math... but I think your assumptions are a bit ... imaginary.

cnsnews.com...

Data from the most recent 8 months published by the Treasury indicate that between the last day of June 2011 and the last day of February 2012, entities in Japan increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities from $881.6 billion to $1.0959 trillion. At the same time, entities in the People’s Republic of China decreased their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities from $1.307 trillion to $1.1789 trillion.

I don't think our second greatest holder of debt would appreciate its next door neighbor doing whatever the hell it pleases.

Borrowing your logic.

reply to post by Aim64C


Aim64C wow...

you really have a pleasant way of picking apart a few sentences../lol\

Originally posted by darrman
we dont want a WAR with China... we would lose all that Cheap labor.. and China owns a lot of US debt.. and land/farms/gold.... we would let them TAKE the Philippians...

Hypothetically speaking, it reminds me of a saying. If you owe £10,000 to someone, that's your problem, but if you owe £10,000,000,000,000 that is their problem.

Just think for a moment what you're saying..

The debt is a non issue. In the event of War with China, the US would simply not pay it's bills and it would be China left with a big IOU in it's vaults in place of the money that they sent to the US.

The property they own in the US? In the event of War, thnat would be seized immediately. Problem solved.

Labour? In the event of War with China, that would be almost total war scenario where the entire country would be galvanised for the war effort.

Even if not and it was a limited War, there are plenty of places to outsource labour and, at any rate, there is almost parity between Western workers and Indian/Chinese ones now. Here in the UK, we're bringing jobs back as we only get 1.4 Indians for every UK person (cost wise), the UK ones tend to be better anyway and new laws the Indians have brought in actually make it even more expensive.

reply to post by darrman


It is my goal in life to bring humor to the shortcomings of others.

I see it as my duty to share the laughs... so when I sit here and laugh to the point of tears at others... I do my best to let them join in the laughter.

Some don't find it funny, though.

Others just don't get it.

And still others find me funny. ... Which just shows how silly and wrong they are.

Originally posted by AaronWilson
reply to post by Aim64C

 

Stop projecting.

Or we'll hem them up faster than they can blink an eye.

You will not hem their military, the army or navy of your country will. Also, I am just assuming this, but you most likely are projecting the United State's navy as you refere to it and your self as "we'll". The States wouldnt dare touch China as most of the dept the US is in, is owed to the Chinese.

Wouldn't US debt to China be a plausible reason for entering into a conflict with China? I am unsure why debt would cause anty hesitants for the US, as a war would most likely wipe the slate clean- a winner take all kind of thing. The US would only leave the Philipines to toil if there were more pressing issues, and China knows this, so it is most likely rhetoric.

reply to post by Aim64C


It bugs the hell out of me, war loving people like you shouting "our
guns are better than yours" You really think china would walk into
a war with the US? Why? They have america by the balls, without
shooting a single bullet.

No offence, but america is a baby country, while china is the oldest
civilisation in the world. Chiba plans decades ahead, america plan, well,
do they plan ahead?

If a war started between china and the usa, it would turn into a world war,
and we will all suffer. For what? for trying to prove that my d#ck is bigger
than yours! What a sad race we are!

reply to post by Jay-morris

It bugs the hell out of me, war loving people like you shouting "our
guns are better than yours"

Bad things happen because good people do nothing about it.

War is the conflict of interests - the competition between two unyielding wills. If you cannot understand and embrace its function and necessity - then you simply don't understand what it means to stand on principle.

What's that? You hold yourself to a principle of not fighting wars?

Then perhaps you can understand that when I say... oh... something like: "You will not touch the Philippines" - that I mean exactly that... and I will do what is within my power to stand behind that principle.

Now; either you understand what it means to stand on principle - or you simply cannot fathom such things. If you do - then, congratulations; you've found the necessity and function of war. When two people stand on opposing principles, there war stands as nature's way of determining the outcome (the old saying: ". . . who is left.")

You really think china would walk into
a war with the US? Why? They have america by the balls, without
shooting a single bullet.

You make the mistake of vastly over-estimating China's economic power.

Their industry is in a downward spiral. They're going to be going bankrupt pretty soon.

The problem is that they are having a lot of difficulty providing for their needs. Not food and water - but the need to grow and expand. China's industry is in cheap, hard labor - abusive labor, even. It is cheap because living is cheap and the skills minimal.

But China has the burning need to produce higher quality industrial and technological parts to market to the world. When they do that - they rapidly lose their competition-shattering cheap labor sources.

In essence - China needs to start outsourcing its own labor to a cheaper country while they ramp up to a higher tech and quality industry.

In order to do this - they are going to have to start accepting imports from other nations (including the providers of high-tech industrial parts - such as the U.S. and Europe). Which is going to completely unhinge their economy and destroy their pseudo-communist regime.

More than likely - China will collapse and be "the superpower that wasn't" by 2035 (they will actually collapse much earlier - around the 2015-2020 time-frame - but it will take a little bit to run its course and reduce them back to a third world nation).

money.cnn.com...

www.nytimes.com...

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

No offence, but america is a baby country, while china is the oldest
civilisation in the world.

This is quite ignorant.

China, as we know it, came about with the communist revolution that -literally- destroyed the previous culture and society.

www.brusselsjournal.com...

www.theepochtimes.com...

The China that produced such enigmatic and historically intriguing characters as Sun Tzu is long gone. It's as bad as how Native American culture was destroyed by the wars to colonize America.

What a sad race we are!

You are more than welcome to remove yourself from the list of disgraces to life.

Life is an optional evolution, after all.

Perhaps this is bigger than a rift with the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal? It could be an attempt to gauge the US response over China's encroachment in the South Pacific and the Pacific in general? China's policy is to oust the US from the Pacific altogether in the coming decades, and to expand influence. This is the US's chance to respond or be regarded as a pushover. Since the end of WWII the US has been the supreme naval power in the region protecting shipping lanes and arbitrating disputes. I doubt this issue is going to devolve into an open naval conflict, but China's posturing over these islands is the closest thing to it. If the US sits this one out? The Chinese will regard them as a dog who is all bark and no bite, and begin gobbling up territory elsewhere.

This is China's first attempt at naval force projection, because the disputed area is not necessarily in their backyard. It is over a 1,000km from China's nearest land mass! In my humble opinion, I think the US had ought to play this one by the numbers and work to see China and the Philippines negotiate a compromise over the matter. If the area has significant oil and natural gas reserves as postulated? What is the harm in both nations harvesting that resource in a fair equitable manner? The US should see to it that it happens. In the meantime, send a battle group or two to the region to keep the peace.

reply to post by satron


Great find, S&F for the thread.

What I find disturbing from the article is this quote:

“Avoid going out at all if possible, and if not, to avoid going out alone. If you come across any demonstrations, leave the area, do not stay to watch,” the embassy’s advisory said.

Something doesn't sit well with me on this. It reminds me of the snipers in Syria. In other words, people who will be protesting in the streets may be fired upon, and the government doesn't want those walking by to be shot by accident.

Guaranteed bullets will be fired. But this quote leaves me shaken.

Doesn't the US have a Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines? If they are attacked is the US obligated to help defend them?

Originally posted by Jakes5

This is China's first attempt at naval force projection, because the disputed area is not necessarily in their backyard. They over a 1,000km from China's nearest land mass! In my humble opinion, I think the US had ought to play this one by the numbers and work to see China and the Philippines negotiate a compromise over the matter. If the area has significant oil and natural gas reserves as postulated? What is the harm in both nations harvesting that resource in a fair equitable manner? The US should see to it that it happens. In the meantime, send a battle group or two to the region to keep the peace.

A lot of people assume that China can't engage in any kind of military affair too far from their mainland, and maybe they aren't sure themselves. It might be the appropriate time to figure that out.

They could negotiate it but, it seem that China's patience on diplomacy is running short.

Originally posted by DiscoStew
Doesn't the US have a Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines? If they are attacked is the US obligated to help defend them?

Yes we do...

As does other major Pacific - Asian nations like Austrailia. What people seem to be over looking is the bigger picture. If China were to resort to hostilities over resource claims, do people really think other countries in the same position are going to let China pick them apart one at a time?

Going after the Phillipines would be nothing but absolute justification for other countries that China has targeted to respond in support of the Phillipines, which will include India.

As far as their economy goes (China) the loss of manufacturing jobs would mean the Us would be forced to produce our own items again. We have a willing workforce and people eager to get the jobs back over here. Remove a market the size of the US from China, they will need to find buyers to offset that loss.

Since Europe would most likely be involved in one way or another, I dont see them racing to pick up the slack that the loss of the US market would create.

Also, China has been caught lying about their financial situation.

ATS Thread - China's Debt Problem Worse than Portugal

Government officials in China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, have been chastising the U.S. over Standard & Poor’s downgrade to AA+.

Guan Jianzhong, chairman of Dagong Global Credit Rating, has said the U.S. dollar is “gradually [being] discarded by the world,” and the “process will be irreversible.”

But China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is worse than the United States’ ratio. It is worse than insolvent Portugal, which is now relying heavily on the European Central Bank for help, and had to go to the International Monetary Fund to get a financial bailout.

The U.S.’s new AA+ rating from Standard & Poor’s is still higher than the one assigned to the Middle Kingdom. S&P has China’s debt rating stuck at AA-, the fourth highest level, due to its “sizable” contingent liabilities in its banking system.

China’s own system is jammed with rotten debt held in off-balance sheet state enterprises. Its countryside is littered with eerie, empty ghost towns. And Moody’s Investors Service says last month that China’s local debt was understated by hundreds of billions of dollars.

Despite that, the People's Daily said S&P’s downgrade of the U.S.'s credit rating "sounded the alarm bell for the dollar-denominated global monetary system.” China owns an estimated $1.16 trillion in U.S. debt. China prints yuan to hold down its value so as to keep its exports dirt cheap. It then uses that extra printed currency to buy U.S. debt.


Read more: www.foxbusiness.com...

China local government debt understated by $540 billion: Moody's

China's local government debt burden may be 3.5 trillion yuan ($540 billion) larger than auditors estimated, putting banks on the hook for deeper losses that could threaten their credit ratings, Moody's said on Tuesday.

Addressing the estimate by China's state auditor that its local governments have chalked up 10.7 trillion yuan of debt, Moody's said it found more potential loans after accounting for discrepencies in figures given by various Chinese authorities.

"The potential scale of the problem loans at Chinese banks may be closer to its stress case than its base case," Moody's said in a statement.

In view of that, the non-performing loan ratio for Chinese banks could be as high as 8-12 percent, compared with 5-8 percent in the base case and 10-18 percent in the stress case.

Unless China comes up with a "clear master plan" to clean up its pile of local government debt, the credit outlook for Chinese banks could turn negative, the ratings agency said.

In a bid to assuage investor worries about the potential souring of its massive local government debt, different Chinese authorities including the state auditor, the bank regulator and the central bank have

Other signs China is not in the position it claims to be in -
Chinese Curbs on Raw-Material Exports Break Rules, WTO Says

2009 - Geithner Says China Manipulates Its Currency

2010 - Where China hides its debt

2010 - Chinese debt and 2010

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- China’s hidden borrowing may push government debt to 96 percent of gross domestic product next year, increasing the risk of a financial crisis in the world’s third-biggest economy, Professor Victor Shih said.

“The worst case is a pretty large-scale financial crisis around 2012,” said Shih, a political economist at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, who spent months researching borrowing transactions by about 8,000 local-government entities. “The slowdown would last at least two years and maybe longer,” the author of the book “Factions and Finance in China” said in a phone interview March 1.

Surging borrowing by local-government entities, uncounted in official estimates of China’s debt-to-GDP ratio, is the key reason for Shih’s concern. Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff said Feb. 23 that a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade, while hedge-fund manager James Chanos has predicted a Chinese slump after excessive property investment.