BIG SUNSPOT 1476 could be dangerous., page 1


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ATS Members have flagged this thread 22 times


reply posted on 7-5-2012 @ 09:19 AM by BobAthome
reply to post by lindsay1984



Following web services have been terminated.

* Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation



obviously,,,duhhh it's an outside source,,


reply posted on 7-5-2012 @ 09:21 AM by lindsay1984
reply to post by BobAthome



Ok...I just had never seen the website do that before. It always has the simulation on it, and it isn't in Japanese usually. Just found it odd with the the threat of solar activity and the website was down.


reply posted on 7-5-2012 @ 02:47 PM by Neopan100
reply to post by jvm222



that looks like melanoma on the sun! Those look really big..do you know in relation to earth how big they are?


reply posted on 7-5-2012 @ 04:03 PM by voiceoreason
Originally posted by Snakeybasterds
This one could get nasty. It is one of the biggest in years. We will have to keep a eye on this one.

BIG SUNSPOT: One of the largest sunspot groups in years rotated over the sun's northeastern limb this weekend. With a least four dark cores larger than Earth, AR1476 sprawls more than 100,000 km from end to end, and makes an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman sends this picture of the behemoth from his backyard in Buffalo, NY

spaceweather.com...


www.spaceweather.com...


There have been several groupings of spots in the last 18 months that are equal to or larger than the 1476 grouping. It may, or it may not generate a massive CME.

For those of you who are peeing your pants, take a second and read what a CME is vs. a Solar Flare. Just because it's an X class flare doesn't mean it's another Carrington event.

If you want to prep, prep.

Instead of playing where's waldo with solar flares and CME's on ATS try spending more time with your families. You'll find out about the new Carrington event just in time to realize that there's nothing that you could have done about it anyways if you haven't already stockpiled food, supplies, and a bunker.


reply posted on 7-5-2012 @ 11:11 PM by windowpane
Well it certainly is a large sunspot, currently at 12:03 am EST having a Beta-Gamma configuration. The most complex configuration for a sunspot is Beta-Gamma-Delta, which is capable of generating massive flares.

It should be noted that a sunspot's size is not necessarily indicative of its eruptive geomagnetic potential. You can have a massive sunspot that whimpers out C class flares and not much else, or a much smaller sunspot that is much more geomagnetically complex that can unleash extremely powerful x-flares.

That being said, this sunspot certainly looks like it has the potential to eventually evolve into Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. In the past 36-48 hours it has put out several M-class flares. I believe one or two of these flares generated small CMEs.

We must also remember that not all flares produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), or Solar Proton Events (SPEs).

Order of solar flare events:

1. Solar Flare - Travels at the speed of light, x-rays, takes 8 minutes to reach earth.
2. Solar Proton Event - Only present in very powerful flares, follows hours after the flare. Can cause satellites to malfunction, is a risk to astronauts and high-latitude flights.
3. Coronal Mass Ejection - A massive magnetically charged cloud of plasma that takes anywhere from 18 hours (Carrington Event was the fastest CME ever recorded) to 48 hours to reach earth. If powerful enough and oriented in the correct polarity (opposite earth's magnetic field), can cause geomagnetic storms on earth. CMEs produced by powerful X-flares, and even some by M-flares can cause severe storms.

I might also add that the orientation of the sunspot relative to earth is also important in whether or not we get the full brunt of the storm's geomagnetic force. The worst case scenario is to have a massive X-flare with an associated CME pointed directly at earth with a south-facing polarity. A lot of things need to line up just right to get us in this situation though.
edit on 7-5-2012 by windowpane because: (no reason given)

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