BIG SUNSPOT 1476 could be dangerous.

This one could get nasty. It is one of the biggest in years. We will have to keep a eye on this one.

BIG SUNSPOT: One of the largest sunspot groups in years rotated over the sun's northeastern limb this weekend. With a least four dark cores larger than Earth, AR1476 sprawls more than 100,000 km from end to end, and makes an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman sends this picture of the behemoth from his backyard in Buffalo, NY

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I'm just waiting for a monster solar flare. Thanks for the fyi

r u feelin HOT HOT HOT?



it look pretty darn ominous!

hope it blows overrr...

I tried to check out the Real Time Magnetosphere simulation website and noticed it isn't there anymore. Is anyone else having this problem? I have the link saved in my bookmarks but when I just clicked on it this morning, it takes me to this site. Check it out www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

reply to post by lindsay1984


Following web services have been terminated.

* Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation



obviously,,,duhhh it's an outside source,,

reply to post by BobAthome


Ok...I just had never seen the website do that before. It always has the simulation on it, and it isn't in Japanese usually. Just found it odd with the the threat of solar activity and the website was down.

Check this out. Freaking amazing.

reply to post by jvm222


that looks like melanoma on the sun! Those look really big..do you know in relation to earth how big they are?

Originally posted by lindsay1984
Ok...I just had never seen the website do that before. It always has the simulation on it, and it isn't in Japanese usually. Just found it odd with the the threat of solar activity and the website was down.

From another website, 22 March,...

Dear Mr. Pablo Olivares,
Support of our super computer finished in the end of February.
The simulation stopped between 9 March and 20 March because of our system trouble.
The realtime simulation will really stop in the end of March or in April.
Sorry for this.
Best regards,
Shinichi Watari

The data the NIST were using comes from the ACE satellite.
For another view of that data, this link.

reply to post by alfa1


Thanks!

Originally posted by Snakeybasterds
This one could get nasty. It is one of the biggest in years. We will have to keep a eye on this one.

BIG SUNSPOT: One of the largest sunspot groups in years rotated over the sun's northeastern limb this weekend. With a least four dark cores larger than Earth, AR1476 sprawls more than 100,000 km from end to end, and makes an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman sends this picture of the behemoth from his backyard in Buffalo, NY

spaceweather.com...


www.spaceweather.com...

There have been several groupings of spots in the last 18 months that are equal to or larger than the 1476 grouping. It may, or it may not generate a massive CME.

For those of you who are peeing your pants, take a second and read what a CME is vs. a Solar Flare. Just because it's an X class flare doesn't mean it's another Carrington event.

If you want to prep, prep.

Instead of playing where's waldo with solar flares and CME's on ATS try spending more time with your families. You'll find out about the new Carrington event just in time to realize that there's nothing that you could have done about it anyways if you haven't already stockpiled food, supplies, and a bunker.

Didn't SOHO stop working on the 4th?
How they get this image on the 6th?

Originally posted by grey580
Didn't SOHO stop working on the 4th?
How they get this image on the 6th?

Oddly the HMI and Sunspot data is still fresh, only Ultraviolet is down...ah ha...

Huge Spot rotating into view:

BIG SUNSPOT 1476 could or could not be dangerous....

That's what the OP title should say.

Yes I guess it could be dangerous if you look up to long at the aurora's at night(you might get a kink in your neck). I wouldn't lose no sleep over it in fact I think it's cool to be able to see this our parents never had this kind of technology. Someday it will lead to more information about our planet. Maybe change in weather patterns warming or cooling of the core who knows. But for now I just keep watch x-class flares cause awesome aurora's.The sun is fun to watch also from hyder flares to solar flares.

Well it certainly is a large sunspot, currently at 12:03 am EST having a Beta-Gamma configuration. The most complex configuration for a sunspot is Beta-Gamma-Delta, which is capable of generating massive flares.

It should be noted that a sunspot's size is not necessarily indicative of its eruptive geomagnetic potential. You can have a massive sunspot that whimpers out C class flares and not much else, or a much smaller sunspot that is much more geomagnetically complex that can unleash extremely powerful x-flares.

That being said, this sunspot certainly looks like it has the potential to eventually evolve into Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. In the past 36-48 hours it has put out several M-class flares. I believe one or two of these flares generated small CMEs.

We must also remember that not all flares produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), or Solar Proton Events (SPEs).

Order of solar flare events:

1. Solar Flare - Travels at the speed of light, x-rays, takes 8 minutes to reach earth.
2. Solar Proton Event - Only present in very powerful flares, follows hours after the flare. Can cause satellites to malfunction, is a risk to astronauts and high-latitude flights.
3. Coronal Mass Ejection - A massive magnetically charged cloud of plasma that takes anywhere from 18 hours (Carrington Event was the fastest CME ever recorded) to 48 hours to reach earth. If powerful enough and oriented in the correct polarity (opposite earth's magnetic field), can cause geomagnetic storms on earth. CMEs produced by powerful X-flares, and even some by M-flares can cause severe storms.

I might also add that the orientation of the sunspot relative to earth is also important in whether or not we get the full brunt of the storm's geomagnetic force. The worst case scenario is to have a massive X-flare with an associated CME pointed directly at earth with a south-facing polarity. A lot of things need to line up just right to get us in this situation though.

I hope the sun takes out my satellite internet. I only get service half the time, and want to get out of my useless $90 a month contract.

Not to be the negative one but doesn't it seem like we see one ofthose threads at least once a week? The sun is apparently always on the verge f exploding and releasing an apocalyptic solar flare( which will never happen). And I don't think people realize this is just the suns climaxing hear and it will begin it's cooling process probably at the end of the year. That stupid Nicolas cage movie has people thinking a ball of fire will English the earth, not realize that the earths magnetic field averts 80% of them. If anything it might raise temperatures a bit, burn the ozone later a little more, and give you an above average case of sunburn, but that's about it.

With at least four dark cores larger than Earth, the sprawling active region is one of the largest sunspots in years. Moreover, it has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Any eruptions in the days ahead could be Earth-directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet. Solar flare alerts: text, phone.

Sunspot 1476 poses a threat for X-class solar flares

SUNSPOT SUNSET: Sunspot AR1476 is so large, people are noticing it without the aide of a solar telescope. The behemoth appears at sunrise and sunset when the light of the low-hanging sun is occasionally dimmed to human visibility. Alberto Lao sends this picture from Manila, the Phillippines:

TWO INCOMING CMEs: A pair of solar eruptions on May 7th hurled coronal masss ejections (CMEs) toward Earth. Forecast tracks prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab suggests that clouds with arrive in succession on May 9th at 13:40 UT and May 10th at 07:54 UT (+/- 7 hours). The double impact could spark moderate geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Magnetic storm alerts: text, phone.

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