POLITICS: U.S. Prewar Intelligence Saw Possible Iraq Insurgency, page 1

While the prewar intelligence suggesting that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction have proven incorrect, a recently released prewar intelligence report warned that an invasion could lead to groups fighting both the new Iraqi government as well as U.S. forces. The reports compiled in January 2003, predicted that Iraq would be divided and easily prone to internal violence. According to one source familiar with the reports, "winning the peace will be harder than winning the war," . Since the US led coalition invaded Iraq last year, the county has been plagued by a wave of violence and kidnaping.

story.news.yahoo.com
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. intelligence report before the Iraq war warned that an American invasion could lead to rogue elements fighting the new Iraqi government and U.S. forces, sources familiar with the report said on Tuesday.

While the classified report did not call it an insurgency, it raised the possibility of guerrilla warfare in a postwar Iraq, sources said.

Intelligence reports compiled in January 2003 predicted that an American invasion would result in a divided Iraq prone to internal violence, and increased sympathy in the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

The assessments were compiled from the views of various intelligence agencies by the National Intelligence Council which reports to the CIA director.

There was a "big stack" of prewar intelligence reports that said there was a high degree of possibility of insurgency and unrest, and that "winning the peace will be harder than winning the war," one source familiar with the reports said on condition of anonymity.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan indicated that while President Bush was well aware of the difficulties facing a post war Iraq, the consequences on not removing Saddam Hussein, outweighed the concerns. Other officials have also downplayed the importance of the report. According to one US official "That NIE on Iraq was not a prediction or a forecast. The estimate deliberately did not assign probabilities to the scenarios portrayed because Iraq's future is contingent upon the actions of its leaders and the actions of the United States," . The report outlined three possible scenario for post war Iraq and the worst case scenario was for total civil war.