California Coastline 6.0 - 7.0 Magnitude Earthquake Predicted Within the Next 40 Hours

Forecast for May 02 - May 03 2012:

• 6.0 to 7.0 earthquake likely in San Clemente, Oceanside, Escondido, Encinitas, Julian, Borrego Springs, Salton Sea, Indio, Brawley.

• 3.0 to 3.5 earthquake possible in San Jose, Morgan Hill, Watsonville, Salinas, King City, Greenfield, Soledad.

Accuracy of Forecasted Earthquakes (Between March 31, 2012 to May 03, 2012 - 08:14):







(NOTE: Accuracy stats do not include earthquakes offshore California or outside the borders of California.)

Source

While this does not mean that this is accurate, it is certainly interesting, albeit frightening. As you can see, the statistical data has not dealt with any earthquakes in magnitude above 4.0, so therefore there is no data. Obviously, the coastline of California has seen earthquakes over 4.0 in the past, as this only spans back to the end of March, but I suppose that might have something to do in the accuracy itself, since things do change over time, so statistics must need recalculation due to changing variables, and therefore seismic activity felt a year before, might not be so relevant (not to say that it is irrelevant, but not as relevant as earthquakes over the past 30 days) in predicting future earthquakes.

just in time for cinco de mayo

the mexico swarm yesterday was amazin!

6.3, 7.0, 6.2, 6.9

reply to post by Resonant


I live in Carlsbad CA so if there's any shaking I'll let ya know
Starred and flagged because it's straight to the point and I don't have to wait 2-12 months for this one to go down in flames😉

There is also a warning of an earthquake striking Japan between May 3 - 4, although the intensity level is not yet predicted.

Earthquake risk is very high in Chiba, Ibaraki, Iwate area. Earthquake risk is rising in the Osaka & Miyazaki area.

reply to post by Resonant


I'm confused. The source says "forecast for May 2 - 3", but your title says forecast for the next 40 hours. Where does the 40 hours come from?

reply to post by Flyzoid


I'm not necessarily convinced it will happen either (although I'm a little more open to the idea because there isn't mention of God or Nostradamus, just scientific data), regardless I thought that I should let anyone living within that area know, as it does have the potential to cause damage or harm.

OP posted accuracies thru to including may 3 so if i were OP i would predict for may 4 & 5

or at least may 3-4

its less than 48 hrs, i doubt anything will happen until after may 4 (ie may 5) but hoo nose...

Originally posted by AnonymousCitizen
reply to post by Resonant

 

I'm confused. The source says "forecast for May 2 - 3", but your title says forecast for the next 40 hours. Where does the 40 hours come from?

Sorry, but thank you for pointing that out. Initially I saw this through Twitter, this is their (Quake Prediction) latest update:

Originally posted by BiggerPicture
OP posted accuracies thru to including may 3 so if i were OP i would predict for may 4 & 5

or at least may 3-4

its less than 48 hrs, i doubt anything will happen until after may 4 (ie may 5) but hoo nose...

I am not predicting anything, just simply regurgitating a prediction.

In my opinion no major quakes until May 9- 15. Large solar flares will probably precede major quake in Pacific region. I also think that Tonga will sound off before major Ca quake.

reply to post by Resonant


We'll I live in Oceanside so if this hits us I'll be sure to post of it here. I don't honestly recall there being any huge fault lines around here that could cause a 6.0-7.0 around the area suggested in the tweet but who knows.

well, its may 3rd.

another failed prediction.

next...

reply to post by stanguilles7


The day is young!

It aint over till the fat lady sings, or in this case, the plates slide along side one another.

reply to post by stanguilles7


Why post if you do not even take the time to read the thread? The OP already covered the discrepancy.
As of May 3 the prediction is the next 40 hours.

Why do I even bother, you already made up your mind that it is impossible for there to be a forecast of seisimc activity.

Originally posted by nydsdan
reply to post by stanguilles7

 

Why post if you do not even take the time to read the thread? The OP already covered the discrepancy.
As of May 3 the prediction is the next 40 hours.

FALSE! Did you read the thread? It specifically states the prediction is for may2-3.

Why do I even bother, you already made up your mind that it is impossible for there to be a forecast of seisimc activity.

Where did I do that? Clearly reading comprehension is not your strong suit.

Originally posted by Resonant
reply to post by Flyzoid

 

I'm not necessarily convinced it will happen either (although I'm a little more open to the idea because there isn't mention of God or Nostradamus, just scientific data), regardless I thought that I should let anyone living within that area know, as it does have the potential to cause damage or harm.

actually god and nostradamus have about the same odds as science, when it comes to earth quake prediction. in any case i hope it doesn't happen.

reply to post by stanguilles7


Sorry. Silly me actually checked the Twitter feed that the OP referenced and read the update from 2 minutes ago that states:

Earthquake Forecasts ‏ @Quakeprediction 6.0 - 7.0 earthquake likely in Oceanside, Escondido, Borrego Springs, Salton Sea, Indio, (next 35 hrs) -

Who knows, maybe the source of that Twitter feed is moving the target and two days ago they were saying the same thing...

Now back to regularly scheduled programming...

My first question is this:
I know the source posted some metrics but has anybody seen this source accurately predict an earthquake?

And my second is:
Why is this not in the Predictions forum? I know it is earthquake related but it is really just a very accurate prediction..

Either way, I will be keeping an eye on it... for about 35 more hours, anyway.

Originally posted by nydsdan
reply to post by stanguilles7

 

Why post if you do not even take the time to read the thread? The OP already covered the discrepancy.
As of May 3 the prediction is the next 40 hours.

Why do I even bother, you already made up your mind that it is impossible for there to be a forecast of seisimc activity.

I don't think it's impossible at all.
In fact, it's entirely possible.

We can measure the friction between any surfaces and give a good reading and prediction of when a failure or shift will occur, and the same mechanism is entirely possible with earthquakes.

Unfortunately, that process would require the kind of mapping, computing power and modeling that simply doesn't exist. In ten years we might have the capacity to accurately detail and monitor every contour of a plate and be able to predict with some accuracy where the pressure could build and lead to a quake, but we're not there yet.

I do not accept that there is any way to "predict" an earthquake using historical data. It is effectively suggesting that you can predict the end of a Jazz record by hearing the beginning.

Following 'trends' is probably more useful than believing 'predictions'.
You can all follow the day-to-day world-wide activity here...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

This shows 7 earthquakes in California since 1st May 2012, the largest being M3.2 on May 2nd

The largest incidence in the last month was off West Coast of N. Sumatra on 11th April at M8.6