Will Ron Paul formally clinches the nomination on May 8?

Ron Paul delegates strategy has won him delegates and make him the winner in Missouri (152 delegates), Washington, Iowa, Nevada, Minnasota, Colorado and more states are falling in.

My friend's father say Ron Paul will formally clinches the nomination on May 8, I have my fingers crossed.

Ron Paul 2012

reply to post by digital_desire


It's funny. I was listening to NPR this morning and they were covering the Republican primaries. They (naturally) never mentioned Dr. Paul. They led the story with, "Now that the last of Romney's rivals have dropped out of the primary race..."

Funny, yet sad.

I understand optimism...but this is way beyond that.

Do people honestly believe this???

90% of the population could vote for Ron Paul and it wouldn't make a difference.

They want Romney, and since the beginning it's been that way. Ron won't sell out, and the awareness he's brought to the people makes his time spent running worth something. Though it's all rigged, his efforts aren't in vain.

I understand optimism...but this is way beyond that. Do people honestly believe this???

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Yea, this is way beyond that, it's called REALITY, why don't you join us sometime. I told you in a previous thread that Santorum would be out soon enough, and look what happened, and guess where most of his 200+ delegates are going to end up?

Not with Rmoney that's for sure.

This is way beyond optimism at this point, the Ron Paul campaign is starting to snowball and you'd better stand aside otherwise you may get caught up in the avalanche without a safety beacon. Facts are facts even when you try to distort the truth to your advantage.

Seems like your more than a little worried about the prospect of Paul running against your buddy, so much so you put him down every chance you get. Funny I don't see you doing that with Rmoney though. Your concern is very apparent or should I say transparent - we can see right through you.

I said in another thread, the delegate plan was extremely clever. He will either win the Repub nomination...or...he will go third party and take a huge chunk of delegates with him...thus assuring a Robo-Romney defeat. If he gets the nomination then he will assuredly beat POTUS Obama with the repub vote, the Independent vote and the vote from Dems not so happy with the POTUS....

The Old doctor was far more clever than anyone gave him credit....I think the old fart can win ....and bravo!...it is time for a "Constitution revolution"...abolish anything and everything that the constitution does not specifically mention....invest that money into fixing our broken infrastructure...

The returning soldiers can retire their battle helmet for a hard hat and the military contractors can get new licenses as "general contractors" and start building bridges instead of bombs...it won't cost us anymore money than we are spending now and it improves and upgrades our country.....win-win.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Aren't you an Obama supporter? Why do you seem so worried about Ron Paul getting the Republican nomination?

Maybe I can answer that question because I just realized something. You and a lot of others others here say that RP doesn't stand a chance or will never get on the ballot or that it won't make a difference if he does get the nomination because the vote is rigged. MSM takes every opportunity to dismiss and downplay RP as a candidate or just ignore him completely.

It just occurred to me what's going on. People are afraid of Ron Paul. Democrats are afraid of him because they know Obama doesn't stand a chance against him. They know Romney will be an easy win for them. Republicans are afraid of Ron Paul because they know he will start dismantling the oligarchy they have spent so long building. MSM have become just a political mouthpiece, apparently including NPR.

Ron Paul can very likely be on the ballot come November because a lot of people, myself included, are working to make that happen. It can happen and it is happening right now. So be afraid. Be very afraid.

Originally posted by digital_desire
Ron Paul delegates strategy has won him delegates and make him the winner in Missouri (152 delegates), Washington, Iowa, Nevada, Minnasota, Colorado and more states are falling in.

My friend's father say Ron Paul will formally clinches the nomination on May 8, I have my fingers crossed.

*snip*

Not all delegates from these states have yet been selected, but this is the score so far. Washington's convention isn't until late May. I'm sure Paul will win some delegates there, but it won't be enough. For the record, Missouri has a total of 52 delegates, not "152". Is that important? If you are counting, it's 100 delegates worth of important, so yeah, it's important. This is not a fantasy football league, but that's where a lot of Paulistas live.

Of the states you claim Paul has "won," these are the results so far:

Missouri: Romney: 12 delegates, Santorum: 7 delegates, Paul: 4 delegates
Washington: Romney: 30 delegates, Santorum: 5 delegates, Paul: 5 delegates
Iowa: Romney: 13 delegates, Santorum: 13 delegates, Paul: 1 delegate
Nevada: Romney: 13 delegates, Santorum: 3 delegates, Gingrich: 6 delegates, Paul: 5 delegates
MinnEsota: Romney: 3 delegates, Santorum: 16 delegates, Gingrich: 1 delegate, Paul: 18 delegates
Colorado: Romney: 13 delegates, Santorum: 6 delegates, Paul: 3 delegates

Total so far: Romney: 847 delegates, Santorum: 259 delegates, Gingrich: 137 delegates, Paul: 80 delegates
1144 needed to win.

Romney needs 297 more.
Paul needs 1064 more.

Delegate counts vary depending on the source, but every single one of them shows the same pattern. there are some individual number disagreements, but they are not statistically significant.

Future primaries/caucuses:

May 8th: 132 delegates
May 15th: 63 delegates
May 22nd: 81 delegates
May 29th: 155 delegates
June 5th: 299 delegates
June 26: 40 delegates
-----
Total: 770 delegates yet to be selected via this process. There are also "super delegates" to add into the mix. These tend to be state party chairmen, etc. I deem it unlikely they will flock to Paul.

The ONLY way Paul could win is if he won EVERY SINGLE OUTSTANDING DELEGATE plus earned the delegates of both Santorum and Gingrich, i.e.: Santorum and Gingrich would have to formally endorse Paul and give their delegates to him. That would put him at 1166, 22 votes over.

In the popular vote contests Paul has gotten about 11%. When they get a chance to vote, they don't vote for Paul. Paul does better in the caucuses because of the Paulistas, who don't really care what the popular vote is. Note that many of the upcoming primaries, such as California, are NOT caucus-driven. People actually get to vote, and when that happens, Paul inevitably loses. he doesn't have popular support, as the results so far clearly show.

Does anyone here realistically believe that Ron Paul will win all the remaining delegates? Does anyone here believe that both Santorum and Gingrich will give their delegates to Paul? Does anyone here believe Paul will win the popular vote in the remaining primaries? There is no way Paul will even come close. If you actually believe that can happen, you are delusional.

Here's what is going to happen.

1. Paul will get creamed in the remaining voted primaries.
2. Paul will "do well" in the caucus primaries, but not well enough.
3. Romney will get the nomination on the first ballot.
4. Paulistas will claim their candidate was "cheated" out of the nomination.

reply to post by schuyler


You are wrong, as are most people with delegate counts.

Romney doesn't have that many delegates.

Those are projections.

Originally posted by gwydionblack
reply to post by schuyler

 

You are wrong, as are most people with delegate counts.

Romney doesn't have that many delegates.

Those are projections.

Also, Santorum's delegates will not go to him since he dropped out. I have no idea why the media is still showing those projections even counting Santorum. The word is, those are also going to Paul as well. Gingrich delegates don't count either, (not Gingrich delegates anymore) no idea where those are going. I think the biggest issue For Paul is going to be the winner take all primary states.

ETA: Oh, and it should be obvious by now that the media has "projected" way more delegates to Romney at least in Caucus states than what is happening in reality.

I dont get it?

It says RP only has 76...
www.cnn.com...

Originally posted by CALGARIAN
I dont get it?

It says RP only has 76...
www.cnn.com...

It's simple...the establishment fears the Ron Paul Constitution Revolution and they are trying to sway people's opinion with disinformation...if you think your hero is a loser...your support may wane...this is NOT the case for most Ron Paul supporters and the MSM and the corporate oligarchy/plutocracy is afraid...very-very afraid...

they hope that filling the empty skulls out there with Bullshiz and blatant disinformation...they can somehow stop the revolution train....not going to work though

Ignoring the biased Paul detractors, as we should always do, it is a good sign that Paul is suddenly sweeping all of these conventions. I'm not sure about a May 8 victory for Paul, but then again I don't know the current convention dates.

Things are going Paul's way, those of us who know that shouldn't bicker with the same ol' same ol' crowd that comes in here and tries to prove us wrong with projections.

reply to post by Wookiep

Also, Santorum's delegates will not go to him since he dropped out.

Yes they will...unless he officially releases them.

Santorum and Gingrich have not released their delegates...so in the first round of voting at the convention...those delegates will still be bound to vote for them.

reply to post by schuyler

Total so far: Romney: 847 delegates, Santorum: 259 delegates, Gingrich: 137 delegates, Paul: 80 delegates 1144 needed to win.

Your math is using Mainstream media propaganda numbers therefore all "answers" arrived at using them are about as valid as Obama's birth certificate.

reply to post by Nucleardoom


It's reality that Paul is going to clinch the nomination in 11 days???

A little reality from Paul supporters would be a nice thing to see...but unfortunately...I'm not seeing it.


If you honestly believe he is going to clinch the nomination on May 8th...please give a detailed account on how exactly that is going to happen.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


This will go to the convention to finally be decided that is without question. Nobody will have this wrapped up on May 8th. Many will be in for a surprise come convention time. Rmoney's support is fabricated at best. There isn't enough 50+ year old voters to carry this guy. That voter demographic goes to vote and that is where their support begins and ends. Very few of Rmoney's supporters are willing to make the sacrifices to support him beyond their vote.

Originally posted by Nucleardoom
reply to post by OutKast Searcher

 

This will go to the convention to finally be decided that is without question. Nobody will have this wrapped up on May 8th. Many will be in for a surprise come convention time. Rmoney's support is fabricated at best. There isn't enough 50+ year old voters to carry this guy. That voter demographic goes to vote and that is where their support begins and ends. Very few of Rmoney's supporters are willing to make the sacrifices to support him beyond their vote.

The vote is all that matters.

Why do you think they need to do something more besides vote?


It is just illogical excuse after excuse with you guys.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


That could be, I won't say you're wrong about that. But in Colorado for example, a lot of Santorum supporters are uniting with Ron Paul supporters and aren't planning on giving delegates to Romney at the convention.

www.denverpost.com...

The media's "projections" don't ever reflect what is really happening in the caucus states. All the way back since Iowa they have been dead wrong with their predictions.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher

The vote is all that matters. Why do you think they need to do something more besides vote?

I think you need to brush up on how the delegate system works. The primary vote means next to nothing in all caucus states.