Originally posted by digital_desire
Ron Paul delegates strategy has won him delegates and make him the winner in Missouri (152 delegates), Washington, Iowa, Nevada, Minnasota, Colorado
and more states are falling in.
My friend's father say Ron Paul will formally clinches the nomination on May 8, I have my fingers crossed.
Not all delegates from these states have yet been selected, but this is the score so far. Washington's convention isn't until late May. I'm sure Paul
will win some delegates there, but it won't be enough. For the record, Missouri has a total of 52 delegates, not "152". Is that important? If you are
counting, it's 100 delegates worth of important, so yeah, it's important. This is not a fantasy football league, but that's where a lot of Paulistas
Of the states you claim Paul has "won," these are the results so far:
Missouri: Romney: 12 delegates, Santorum: 7 delegates, Paul: 4 delegates
Washington: Romney: 30 delegates, Santorum: 5 delegates, Paul: 5 delegates
Iowa: Romney: 13 delegates, Santorum: 13 delegates, Paul: 1 delegate
Nevada: Romney: 13 delegates, Santorum: 3 delegates, Gingrich: 6 delegates, Paul: 5 delegates
MinnEsota: Romney: 3 delegates, Santorum: 16 delegates, Gingrich: 1 delegate, Paul: 18 delegates
Colorado: Romney: 13 delegates, Santorum: 6 delegates, Paul: 3 delegates
Total so far: Romney: 847 delegates, Santorum: 259 delegates, Gingrich: 137 delegates, Paul: 80 delegates
1144 needed to win.
Romney needs 297 more.
Paul needs 1064 more.
Delegate counts vary depending on the source, but every single one of them shows the same pattern. there are some individual number disagreements, but
they are not statistically significant.
May 8th: 132 delegates
May 15th: 63 delegates
May 22nd: 81 delegates
May 29th: 155 delegates
June 5th: 299 delegates
June 26: 40 delegates
Total: 770 delegates yet to be selected via this process. There are also "super delegates" to add into the mix. These tend to be state party chairmen,
etc. I deem it unlikely they will flock to Paul.
The ONLY way Paul could win is if he won EVERY SINGLE OUTSTANDING DELEGATE plus earned the delegates of both Santorum and Gingrich, i.e.: Santorum and
Gingrich would have to formally endorse Paul and give their delegates to him. That would put him at 1166, 22 votes over.
In the popular vote contests Paul has gotten about 11%. When they get a chance to vote, they don't vote for Paul. Paul does better in the caucuses
because of the Paulistas, who don't really care what the popular vote is. Note that many of the upcoming primaries, such as California, are NOT
caucus-driven. People actually get to vote, and when that happens, Paul inevitably loses. he doesn't have popular support, as the results so far
Does anyone here realistically believe that Ron Paul will win all the remaining delegates? Does anyone here believe that both Santorum and Gingrich
will give their delegates to Paul? Does anyone here believe Paul will win the popular vote in the remaining primaries? There is no way Paul will even
come close. If you actually believe that can happen, you are delusional.
Here's what is going to happen.
1. Paul will get creamed in the remaining voted primaries.
2. Paul will "do well" in the caucus primaries, but not well enough.
3. Romney will get the nomination on the first ballot.
4. Paulistas will claim their candidate was "cheated" out of the nomination.
edit on 4/27/2012 by schuyler because: spelling
edit on Fri Apr 27 2012 by Jbird because: Removed unnecessary snipe