posted on Apr, 23 2012 @ 06:12 AM
The way I see it, is North Korea are now at the point where they must make a choice about how they are to proceed. They can either continue to
increase the strength of thier speech, and actually make a move on the South Korea border, or withdraw any potential threat to the South, and begin
the process of freeing thier own people.
The reason I say this is, that China may well be a supporter of North Korea, but the situation there is a thorn in China's side as much as anyone
elses. China is, at the moment, a very wealthy nation, in terms of its share of industry world wide, and in terms of the sheer number of services and
goods it produces, and the number of nations it has interacted with in economic circles. But that also means that although China is a very powerful
political entity, the fact that it is in dialogue with more nations, those that it may wish to retain carefully cultivated business oppertunities in
for instance, means that it is a far less immobile nation than it ever has been before.
So although China is still an aegis for NK, it is not the all encompassing shield that it could be, and has been in the past. If anything, China
could (ironically) be the route by which the people of North Korea end up eventually free to eat and live without fear. China has become increasingly
aware of the effect that public, worldwide opinion of China has on its capacity to do healthy long term business with international companies. It
benifits greatly from the amount of debt that it has purchased, along with the slice of the action in the manufacturing and wholesaling markets that
they snapped up when western industry hit the skids some years ago now. If North Korea got seriously heavy handed about things, it would make China
look bad, and although its government could not give a fig what they look like to westerners, the Chinese government WILL take note of the inevitable
drop in thier revenues, as companies get out where they can, or seek to redeploy assets in a less contraversial location.
You see, theres a domino effect in the making here. North Korea screws South Korea, China gets businesses pull out, and international attention
shifts right back to THIER appalling record on human rights while the whole world goes " HOW CAN YOU ALLOW THIS!!!!??". Meanwhile China's
competitors for shipping contracts, building contracts, manufacturing and all that, will be swarming any voids left by those less "steadfast"
supporters of the Chinese expansion. This will mean that the Chinese government will have thier hands full, as well as having an earful from the UN
and its affiliates.
Exposure to western trade has made China a very strong feature on the economic stage, but in terms of its foriegn policy, it has exposed itself to
leverage that could not have previously been applied to it.
North Korea, at this point, are seeking to act in a manner which benifits NO ONE, and all the potential allies they have can see this clear as day.
The truth is that attacking South Korea at this stage will see North Korea and its billions of inhabitants faced with the massed military capacity of
more than half the world, plus the UN, which will have a clear mandate to act for peace, no matter how many explosions have to happen to bring that
This is not a sign that North Korea is ready to go to war. This is a sign that North Korea is ready to commit suidice.