2012 Election Prediction Thread

So it might be fun having a thread where people can make predictions regarding the outcome of the election...and of course explain WHY they believe this will be the outcome. This is NOT a thread about specific issues, this is about who YOU think will actually win the election.

Posts should consist of 3 main sections:

1) Write a short paragraph (2-3 sentences) about each Obama, Romney, Ron Paul, and New Gingrich listing any important (!!) points that highlight how and WHY you feel a certain way about a candidate. Tell us why you think he can or can't win this election.

2) Make your prediction!

3) Reason: Short! 2-3 sentences summing up why...

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Rules:

1) Keep it as short and concise as you can.

2) Fact-check the statements you make regarding an candidate. Just because a candidate says something doesn't mean it's the truth...and you'll look silly if you voted for a candidate based on a lie.

3) Only 1 (!!!) prediction can be made, and you aren't allowed to change it once you made your post. This is key!!

4) No personal attacks or "you vote for Obama, you suck", or "you vote for Romney, you idiot"!! This should be a "friendly" betting-style thread.

5) Once you posted, that's it...no further posting allowed in this thread. I will keep track of the prediction "votes" and list them on the first page (if the mods allow me to do so). Also, if someone posts something that is blatantly wrong (as in, there's undeniable proof that he's wrong) such as saying "Romney eats babies for breakfast", or "Obama is a communist", then I will once in a while post the correct answer and back it up with hard facts (links). I won't do that a ton to be honest, but if it happens and you disagree, start a new thread regarding the disagreement and shoot me a PM...I'll happily defend my position in your thread. If it turns out that I was wrong, I will obviously post a correction and apology in this thread. Trying to keep the thread clean and free of bull#, that's all.

KEY RULE: ONLY 1 POST ALLOWED!!

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Results

Obama: 4
Romney: 0
Ron Paul: 0
Newt Gingrich: 0

Obama

He's done some good stuff (making sure millions more have now healthcare, getting us out of Iraq, fair pay act for women, demonstrably saved the US car industry, repealed don't ask don't tell, credit card bill of rights, student loan reform, oh...and he got Osama, something Bush failed to do!)...but sadly there's also some bad stuff (indefinite detentions, didn't go after bankers aka his corporate donors, didn't close Gitmo, let BP off the hook easy, didn't toughen up financial regulation to make sure the crap that happened can never happen again...the last point is a MASSIVE negative). Overall, I'd rate him a mediocre president, but at least he has done some good that affected millions in a positive way...I also don't think he's an "evil" person overall.

Romney

"Corporations are people my friend!"

To me, Romney is the epitome of a corporate sock puppet. The man made his entire career on FIRING PEOPLE and BREAKING UP companies. He also pays 6.5% less taxes than the average American, which is STUNNING given how much he makes. He's flip-flopped on so many things, it's hard to keep track of his opinions...sometimes he switched his opinion on the same day! My biggest gripe with him is that he doesn't present any real solutions. He says he's going to "massively cut spending", yet when people ask him what he's going to cut he refuses to answer. In my opinion, this guy will do ANYTHING if it makes him money...yes, ANYTHING!

Ron Paul

Soooo many good ideas...but sadly so many disastrous ones too

On one hand he has great ideas like getting us out of wars and stopping this ridiculous (and VERY costly) war on drugs. On the other hand, he has some pretty crazy (and bad) ideas like wanting to fix corruption and fraud in politics and the financial industry by making people sign "voluntary pledges". With ideas like that, it's VERY hard to take him seriously. In the end, he doesn't have the support of the "big guys" in the GOP, so he won't ever get the nomination either way. I won't get into his anti-gay stuff...

Newt Gingrich

I have to admit I almost didn't include him. Moon colony Newt stands no chance in hell in my opinion, so it doesn't really matter what he believes in or what his stance is. He can't get women votes because he's a scumbag, can't get Latino votes given the amount of crap he spewed during the primaries, and for crying out loud the man is twittering about the very candy bar companies that pay him. He's a corporate sock puppet just like Romney. And let's not forget his previous Congress ethics scandal...yeah, not a man I'd like to see leading the US.

Prediction: Obama

Reason: I think the GOP really shot themselves in the foot when they tailored their entire primary campaign around the extreme right fringe. A lot of the stuff they said will bite them in the ass once they have to appeal to the average voter while running against Obama. Both women and Latinos are key voter segments for this election, and given the GOP's push for anti-women legislation (reproductive rights, equal pay rights, workplace rights, etc.) and anti-immigrant legislation (yes Arizona, I'm looking at you!!), I just don't think the numbers stack up for the GOP. The economy isn't great, that's a fact, but unemployment has been decreasing consistently since Obama took office...so that will help him. They will hammer him on oil prices, but the president doesn't set oil prices, so Obama should easily block that attack once he enters campaign mode.

I think Obama will win, he is in a win win situation, if he can pass legislation to spur growth to help improve the economy he can use this to win, if he can't pass legislation to spur growth he can use the fact that congress has a 11% approval rating and blame the continuing economic crisis on republicans and there obstructionist policies.

I think the OWS has the momentum over the tea party movement, I think the tea party movement peaked in 2010 and many who supported it have been disappointed in the performance it has made.

Obama will win, he's a proven good puppet. Love the pin!!

Obama:
I think people are forgetting how wildly popular Obama was while campaigning and he hasn't even started yet...he is still in fundraiser mode. Besides that...he has a record now of doing things for the middle class, tax breaks, healthcare, stimulus, wall street regulation, credit card regulation, foreclosure assistance, etc. Despite what many think, it is going to be hard to campaign against him on his record.

Romney:
In all honesty what most people say is true, there isn't much difference between Obama and Romney. The one HUGE difference is that Romney will direct any tax cuts and assistance towards the wealthy and corporations. However he doesn't have a personality and his likeability is going to hurt him in the race. He has a reputation of being a emotionless business man that makes money.

Gingrich and Paul:
These two are non-factors just trying to stay relevant. I think Gingrich thinks he can bribe his way into a VP or cabinet position and Paul thinks he can get a speaking role at the convention. I think they are both in for a bad surprise.

Who Will Win:

I believe Obama will win but it is going to be a close race. This campaign is going to be very negative from the GOP side and a lot of defensive and for the people campaigning from Obama. Super Pacs will change the game, but I think people may be turned off by all the negative ads these SuperPacs will run...and they will also be turned off by the money being spent.

If you look at the projected electoral college map...Obama is already pretty close to winning. According to RCP, Obama only needs 43 more electoral votes. He has multiple paths to get the votes he needs...Romney has a very narrow path to get the votes he needs.

unless that was a coup in columbia, implicating hillary with the SS and miltary involved, or manufactured by obama to hurt hillary, hillary will be the dems nominee. There is said that a deep throat inside the whitehouse that came forward about the gunrunning that lead to a us agent that was murdered. Obama has allready been warned by MCon nel and Boehner not to attempt to sign anymore executive orders before this term is up.
Obama is on his way out. Hillary is the dems choice.
As for the gop, Romney has an unapproval rating at 51%. That is unprecedented and cannot be overcome. I am beginning to doub he was ever the choice to begin with. It is beginning to look like a brokered convention was the plan from the beginning which is why they pumped Santorum in the press and Gingrich has stuck around.
Just ask yourself why none of the gop heavyweights never entered the ring and they have pumped and pushed Romney, who is obama light?
It's because the super delegates are going to bring Jeb Bush in after the convention fails to have a nominee get 51% and then they are free to vote any way they want.
BUT.....
I cannot overlook what is going on with Ron Paul.
He is capturing entire states delegates in almost all the caucus states.
That's a big problem for Romney and Jeb Bush.
The dark horse for a brokered convention, and that is if Hillary is the dems choice, is Sarah Palin.


Hillary vs. Jeb Bush/ or Ron Paul. I give 50/50
Sarah Palin...hmmmm, I cannot see it but it's on the table for an against Hillary run.

But I know this hurts feelings but Obama has to do alot of dark and nefarious things to stay the nominee and run this next election.
He is toast!!!
Forget the birth cert thing, that pales in comparison for the impeachable things they will be bringing out soon.
Not now, it's too far away from Novemeber.
With GAS, Fast and Furious (as serious as it can get) Solyndra and other green initiative failures where his donors ran off with stimulus cash, 6-10 dollar gasoline, etc....
Seriously, the race card will not be good enough.
He is toast!
Hillary vs. Jeb Bush/ or Ron Paul. I give 50/50

reply to post by MrXYZ


(making sure millions more have now healthcare, getting us out of Iraq, fair pay act for women, demonstrably saved the US car industry


This is a joke

reply to post by manna2


Jeez, you seem really, really out to lunch if you still think 2012 is going to be about Clinton / Bush or Paul or Clinton / Palin.

1. I will agree with other posts here, Obama has done a fantastic job in many areas but a lousy job in others, and that's pretty much what happens with every single world leader, whether inside or outside the USA.

2. Romney will probably be the nominee, but will do so badly in debates against Obama that likely I can see an Obama victory by at least 10 points. I think GOP will probably retain Congress though but Dems will maintain a thin lead in The Senate.

3. Ron Paul is probably going (as others have said) for a keynote speech kind of thing at the GOP convention, and as others have said, will probably be very disappointed. I would think in 2016 it will be time for Rand Paul to take over the "Paul for President" reins, hopefully on the same platform.

4. Gingrich always has been a long shot. For someone that has three ex-wives to try and appeal to true Conservative values was a very long shot indeed, right from the start.

5. Other long shots.

Palin wanted Gingrich to stay in the race long enough to force a brokered convention so she could put herself forward as a candidate, was the only reason she endorsed him. Dream on.

Christie will probably wait until 2016.

Jindhal will probably wait until 2016.

Jeb Bush will likely never run. People have memories about the first two Bush regimes. He may end up as someone's VP pick in 2016.

Donald Trump will keep on announcing to the press that he's considering a 2016 run after each of the next four seasons of Apprentice, and then pull out. He will probably show up at the convention in 2012 just in case.

Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are probably both hoping for long shot cabinet positions in a Romney Administration, and if he were to win, I'd think would both be very disappointed.

Nikki Haley will probably be the Michelle Bachmann of the 2016 race.

If the GOP were smart, they would put forward Condi Rice as their 2016 race candidate, as the Dem opponent will almost certainly be Hillary Clinton. Of course, we all know that the GOP can't see an electable candidate if they smacked them in the face.

reply to post by babybunnies


did the impeachable offenses slide past you? Or do you need to have lunch first?
And Romney? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Let me start with the questioning.
Mr. Romney, is it true that the mormons believe that a black man becomes white as he becomes righteous?
And in regards to Hermann Cain..Does he. being a black man carry the mark of Cain, the reason he is black...LOLOLOLOLOLOL
I played pool for a living and what you are getting on the msm is called"the business".
You watch a lot of tv I see.

What is Obama's campaign slogan this time. "Keep hoping buddy, all you got is change for the bus."

Nope, Hillary is well positioned, and this hurts me to admit it. And Romney is the set up man.
shesh, the $6+ gasoline is enough to roast him but the impeachable offenses make him burnt toast.
Remember this in November, Israel has come out and endorsed Romney...for now. The point is simple. They have not put in their hat in Obama's corner, why?