posted on Apr, 15 2012 @ 11:05 AM
Originally posted by AllUrChips
Originally posted by Uncinus
The area where tornadoes were predicted is very large. It's easy enough to roughly forecast the weather a day or two in advance, and say the condition
will be right somewhere over a large area (a tornado watch). It's much harder to forecast exactly where the tornadoes will be until just before they
arrive (a tornado warning).
I see you live in the tornado capitol of the west coast LA? Tornadoes are NOT forecastable within a few days, PERIOD. We get plenty of them in the mid
west and trust me, they come out of nowhere.
Normally tornado watches are only 3-6 hours in advance. And it's not exactly forecasting tornadoes, it's forecasting weather conditions that are
favorable for tornado formation.
You are right though,this warning WAS unusual. But it's a combination of it being a rare and significant event, and improvements in forecasting. We've
been able to forecast this far in advance for a while, but events like this have only occurred a couple of times in the last decade, and before that
we were unable to accurately predict them this far in advance.
It was only the second time in U.S. history that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance, Schneider
said. The first time was in April 2006, when nearly 100 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S., killing a dozen people and damaging more than
1,000 homes in Tennessee.
This weekend's outbreak could be a "high-end, life threatening event," the center said.
It's possible to issue earlier warnings because improvements in storm modeling and technology are letting forecasters predict storms earlier and with
greater confidence, said Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for the National Weather Service.
edit on 15-4-2012 by Uncinus because: (no reason given)